华宝证券出品的2025中国金融产品年度报告《生态跃迁》，已经正式发布了。这是我们 连续第 十四年 发布这个报告。 图：2025中国金融产品年度报告封面 每当这份沉甸甸的报告最终成稿，我们的心中总会涌起一种满满的收获感。这不仅是对过去一 年辛勤耕耘的总结，更是对未来探索的期待。十四年的坚守与沉淀，见证了市场的风云变幻， 也见证了我们在专业道路上的稳步前行。 去年的金融产品年度报告中，我们首次提出 财富与资管行业迈向服务化 的转型方向。令人欣慰 的是，这一理念在业内引发了广泛共鸣。回首2024年，我们也清晰地看到，整个行业在这条转 型之路上已然迈出了坚实的步伐，不断探索前行。 然而，迈向服务化的进程并非单个机构的孤立行动，而是需要整个行业的协同共进，需要财富 生态的重构与升级。这是一场全方位、深层次的蜕变，我们将其称之为生态跃迁—— 这就是今 年我们报告的主题。 作为金融市场深刻变革的见证者和参与者，我们深知， 研究服务的价值不仅在于洞察趋势，更 在于搭建认知跃迁的阶梯。 优秀的研究应该如同一盏明灯，照亮前行的道路，帮助从业者们从 纷繁复杂的市场变化中捕捉到那些关键的信号，为行业转型提供坚实的方向指引。 | 第二 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the "Yantai Port West Area - Inner Mongolia Zhaohao Station" bauxite train service marks a significant development in China's logistics network, creating a new cross-province transportation corridor that enhances the efficiency of bauxite transportation from Yantai to Inner Mongolia [1][3] - This new logistics artery, over 1000 kilometers long, aims to alleviate the logistical challenges faced by the Jiaodong Peninsula and redefines the northern land-sea transportation landscape in China, facilitating economic integration along the Yellow River basin [1][3][4] Logistics and Transportation - The new railway service allows for a "full-line straight" operation, significantly improving the logistics capabilities across North and Northwest China, with a capacity of transporting millions of tons of goods [3][6] - The transition from traditional road transport to rail significantly reduces carbon emissions, with carbon output being less than half that of road transport, while also shortening transport distances by 152 kilometers and cutting transport time by 6 hours [6][7] Economic Impact - The new corridor is expected to enhance the economic synergy among the five provinces it traverses (Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia), facilitating the supply of bauxite to aluminum processing plants and reducing raw material costs for downstream industries [7][8] - The projected cargo throughput for Shandong ports in 2024 is 2.07 billion tons, with the new corridor directly serving major industrial hubs like Baotou Aluminum Base and Yulin Energy Chemical Cluster [4][9] International Trade and Connectivity - Shandong's international logistics capabilities are expanding, with 260 maritime foreign trade container routes and 357 international routes established, covering over 180 countries and regions [4][9] - The new rail-sea intermodal transport corridor is positioned as a key node in the "Belt and Road" initiative, facilitating a global supply chain that connects African bauxite to European markets through Chinese processing [4][8] Future Developments - Shandong is accelerating the construction of a "world-class marine port cluster," with 31 ongoing and planned projects in Yantai, totaling an investment of 75.72 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the port's capacity for handling imported bauxite [9]

稳定币迎来重磅利好。 美东时间6月17日，美国参议院以68票赞成、30票反对通过了《稳定币监管框架法案》。有分析称，这是加密 行业发展的重大转折点，该法案首次为稳定币建立了监管框架，填补了十余年的法律空白。受此影响，美 股"稳定币第一股"Circle股价在美股盘后直线拉升，一度大涨超5%。 美东时间6月17日，美国参议院以68票赞成、30票反对通过了《稳定币监管框架法案》（GENIUS Act），为与 美元挂钩的加密货币稳定币建立监管制度。这一具有分水岭意义的立法标志着数字资产行业首次获得联邦层面 的法律规范。 这项获得两党支持的法案由多数共和党人推动，多名民主党议员选择跨党派支持。 该法案正式名称为《指导和建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（GENIUS），接下来将提交众议院投票，通过后 方能呈送特朗普总统签署。 "这是加密行业发展的重大转折点。"前白宫国家经济委员会副主任、美亚博律师事务所合伙人安德鲁·奥梅姆 指出："该法案首次为快速增长的数字金融产品——稳定币建立了监管框架，填补了十余年的法律空白。" 有分析称 ，这一投票结果是加密行业在投入数亿美元资金来选举一个"加密友好"的国会之后，获得的最具体 的回报。 ...

国际货币秩序重构的本质是什么？ 现行国际货币体系仍是美元体系，截至2024年，美元在全球储备货币占比接近60%。我们并不认为现行的美元体系要 崩塌，国际货币秩序加速重构本质是美元资产的安全性出了问题。从美元当前的国际储备地位的三大支点来看： 1）第一是交易媒介和计价单位， 截至 2024Q2的最新可得数据，美国GDP按照购买力平价占全球15%，但是56%的全球贸易是以美元结算的。美元在贸易中的广泛使用，赋予了美元强大的网络 效应，这一优势地位短期内较难颠覆。 2）第二是在离岸市场上，美元是重要的融资货币。 当前全球离岸融资中美元融资占比在60%左右，存量规模高达 16万亿美元。金融危机之前，离岸欧元曾和离岸美元同步迅速扩张，但金融危机之后，离岸美元在短暂下降后恢复增长，美元的融资主导地位得以进一步 强化。 3）第三是在岸市场上，美元美债一度是最重要的安全资产。 过去全球投资者对美国资产一直保持旺盛需求，但我们认为这一点正在加速发生变 化。美元资产安全性下降，体现在以下三个方面： ► 首先是美元资产之间的相关性转正，无法在内部有效地分散风险。 一般来说当风险资产下跌的时候，安全资产不应该跟随下跌，这样才能起到避 ...

Core Insights - The traditional e-commerce ecosystem for liquor, built by platforms like JD.com, Tmall, and Taobao, is being disrupted by the entry of instant retail, leading to a shift from low-price strategies to rapid delivery during the "6·18" shopping festival [1][3][11] - Online sales of liquor have seen significant growth, with major brands reporting substantial increases in sales and user engagement during the promotional period [3][4][12] - The competition between online and offline channels is intensifying, with offline retailers struggling against price wars driven by online platforms [7][10] Online Sales Growth - As of May 27, 2023, JD.com reported a 200% year-on-year increase in sales of aged liquor, with user growth at 350% [3] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Moutai also saw sales increases of 170% and 200% respectively, with Moutai's high-end series growing threefold [3][4] - Tmall's first phase of "6·18" saw core liquor brands grow by 72%, with some brands like Jian Nan Chun and Luzhou Laojiao experiencing sales growth of 284% and 433% respectively [4] Price Competition and Impact - The price war initiated by e-commerce platforms has led to significant price reductions for liquor products, with some prices falling below wholesale costs [5][9] - For example, Moutai 1935 was priced at 892 yuan on Tmall, but during "6·18," it dropped to 758 yuan, showcasing the aggressive discounting strategies employed [5][9] - The pressure from online pricing strategies is causing financial strain on traditional distributors and retailers, with many facing tight cash flow situations [9][10] Channel Dynamics - The entry of instant retail is reshaping the liquor market, with platforms like Meituan Shanguo reporting a 200-fold increase in liquor sales during the promotional period [4][6] - The traditional distribution model is under threat, with predictions that many small liquor stores may exit the market in the next 3-5 years due to the competitive pressure from e-commerce [10][11] - Despite the challenges, some distributors are adapting by establishing their own online stores or becoming third-party suppliers for e-commerce platforms [10][11] Future Trends - The liquor industry is moving towards a model that integrates online and offline channels, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to maintain brand presence and consumer engagement [10][13] - The shift in consumer behavior towards more fragmented drinking occasions is prompting liquor companies to innovate in product design and marketing strategies [13][14] - The future success of liquor brands will depend on their ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and effectively leverage both online and offline sales channels [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing explosive growth in the first half of 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3,450 per ounce, leading to a significant increase in gold ETFs as a prominent investment choice [1][3]. Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, gold and gold stock indices have risen in tandem due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, with several ETFs tracking the SSH gold stock index showing weekly gains exceeding 7% [2]. - Year-to-date, the overall market for gold ETFs has seen an increase of 124.66%, with total market size growing from 72.608 billion yuan to 163.12 billion yuan, reflecting a robust demand for gold-related investments [1][3]. - The number of gold ETF shares has increased by 10.5 billion this year, with market size surging by 90.5 billion yuan [2]. Underlying Factors - The U.S. debt crisis has intensified concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the fiscal gap reaching $316 billion in May 2025 and a 14% year-on-year increase in annual deficits [4]. - Central banks globally are accelerating de-dollarization, with gold purchases reaching a record high in 2024, totaling 520 tons from January to May 2025, with China, India, and Turkey leading the increases [4]. - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including a projected 100 basis points rate cut in 2025, has historically correlated with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles [4]. Investment Opportunities - Gold mining stocks are showing high earnings elasticity, with companies like Zijin Mining seeing significant EPS increases with rising gold prices [5]. - The high-end gold jewelry market in China is growing at a rate of 35%, with online sales accounting for 32% of total sales, indicating a structural change in consumer behavior [5]. - Different types of gold ETFs cater to varying risk-return profiles, with physical gold ETFs suitable for hedging against inflation and gold stock ETFs offering higher potential returns [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold prices is primarily driven by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, while medium-term support is expected from U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is likely to enhance gold's position in asset allocation over the long term, reflecting a broader transformation in global monetary systems and investment logic [5].

华宝证券出品的2025中国金融产品年度报告《生态跃迁》，已经正式发布了。这是我们 连续第 十四年 发布这个报告。 图：2025中国金融产品年度报告封面 每当这份沉甸甸的报告最终成稿，我们的心中总会涌起一种满满的收获感。这不仅是对过去一 年辛勤耕耘的总结，更是对未来探索的期待。十四年的坚守与沉淀，见证了市场的风云变幻， 也见证了我们在专业道路上的稳步前行。 去年的金融产品年度报告中，我们首次提出 财富与资管行业迈向服务化 的转型方向。令人欣慰 的是，这一理念在业内引发了广泛共鸣。回首2024年，我们也清晰地看到，整个行业在这条转 型之路上已然迈出了坚实的步伐，不断探索前行。 然而，迈向服务化的进程并非单个机构的孤立行动，而是需要整个行业的协同共进，需要财富 生态的重构与升级。这是一场全方位、深层次的蜕变，我们将其称之为生态跃迁—— 这就是今 年我们报告的主题。 | ** LU | | --- | | 10. 选择"长期正确"还是"当下赚钱"? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Core Points - The establishment of the Guangdong Provincial World Economic Society marks a significant moment in the economic field of Guangdong Province, with nearly 300 experts and scholars from over 30 universities attending the inaugural meeting [1] - The society aims to respond to national strategic needs and enhance the international competitiveness of Guangdong's modern industrial system, focusing on research related to global industrial chain restructuring and top-level design for institutional openness [6] Group 1 - The Guangdong Provincial World Economic Society was officially approved by the Guangdong Provincial Social Science Federation, emphasizing the need for effective organization and the contribution of social science wisdom to the province's development [4] - The society's first council consists of 75 members, with key positions filled by representatives from various universities, including the honorary president from Guangzhou Business School and the president from Sun Yat-sen University [4][6] - The society will focus on integrating academic resources and conducting research on economic theories and real-world issues, particularly in the context of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [9] Group 2 - The president of the society outlined a vision for creating a long-term academic exchange platform that aligns with provincial and national strategies, aiming to enhance the theoretical and practical exploration in the economic field [6] - The society plans to innovate and create brand activities while promoting interdisciplinary research, particularly in artificial intelligence and financial technology [6] - The honorary president highlighted the importance of collaboration in addressing issues related to global industrial chains and value chains, aiming to elevate the society's academic influence and social service capabilities [9]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Institutional Framework - China's manufacturing sector has surpassed 30% of the global share, indicating a transition from a manufacturing giant to a strong industrial system [1] - Sustainable long-term economic growth requires a foundation of institutional civilization, necessitating the establishment of a robust institutional framework [1] - Three strategic pillars for economic development include enhancing the rule of law in the market economy, reforming income distribution to stabilize consumption, and promoting a higher level of institutional openness [1][2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption Confidence - The challenge of expanding domestic demand is rooted in insufficient institutional incentives rather than a lack of consumption capacity [2] - A fair and sustainable income distribution system is essential, aiming to increase the proportion of the middle-income group and unlock structural consumption potential [2] - Enhancing policy transparency and stability is crucial for restoring consumer confidence, requiring a macroeconomic framework that ensures predictability for residents [2] Group 3: Global Trade and Open Economy - China's role in the global economy is shifting from being embedded to actively participating in the reconstruction of global rules [3] - The focus should be on creating a new open economy structure that balances maintaining an open world economy with striving for international rule-making power [3] - Efforts should be made to establish a more inclusive and equitable version of global trade rules, particularly in the context of US-China economic interactions [3] Group 4: Financial System Evolution - The financial system is evolving from a traditional "financing intermediary" to a "resource allocation hub" and "institutional civilization promoter" [5] - Financial systems play a critical role in market efficiency, wealth distribution, and governance transparency [4] - The modern value of finance encompasses its role as a foundational institution, a resource allocation mechanism, a wealth management system, and a carrier of civilization [4] Group 5: Institutional and Civilizational Development - The next phase of China's economic growth will depend on the evolution of its institutional system and the rational reconstruction of social values [6] - Financial systems should be viewed as foundational to market fairness and modern civilization rather than as a source of economic issues [6] - Continuous reforms will drive China towards a new stage characterized by institutional maturity and shared civilizational consensus [6]

每日金句 融资时一定要现金为王，估值不是最重要的。融资少的时候才能多思考商业的 本质，因为这个时候你更专注。情怀是件奢侈品，不要太有情怀，除非你已经 非常有钱。 卢伟冰 | 小米集团副总裁、原金立集团总裁 黑马营 17 期 6 课，2019.5 这里认真推荐你： 国内首场，汇聚中日消费领域顶尖实战派导师 ，用 3天时间沉浸式拆解中日消费巨头方法论。 我们邀请到了 三浦展本人、 萨莉亚前社长、明治食品"爆款教父" ，现场面授 日本30年周期 经验到中国本土化路径 ， 教你效率革命、需求重构、资本破局。 费用： 原价 12800元/人，早鸟价9800元 /人 （仅限7月15日前） 活动详情如下 ↓↓↓ 地点： 上海 时间： 8月7日-8月9日 报名 黑马 「消费重构精选课」 ...