6月25日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在伊朗和以色列暂时停火的支撑下上涨，这改善了整 体市场情绪，金属市场的注意力转移到了现货铜合约溢价的大幅下跌上。 渣打银行分析师Sudakshina Unnikrishnan表示，本季度迄今为止，铜价一直保持稳定，因为铜受全球经 济增长前景担忧、铜精矿供应受限和LME注册仓库库存减少等因素左右。 伦敦时间6月25日17:00(北京时间6月26日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨43.5美元，或0.45%，收报每吨 9,712.5美元。 | | 6月25日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 全屋 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9.712.50 ↑ | +43.50 ↑ +0.45% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,563.50 ↓ | -15.50 J -0.60% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,704.50 ↑ | +23.00 ↑ +0.86% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,032.00 ↑ | +13.00 ↑ +0.64% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,074.00 ↑ | +154.0 ...

高盛预计，由于关税导致美国以外市场铜库存减少，以及中国经济活动有韧性，铜价将在8月升至2025 年高点，达到每吨10,050美元。分析师Eoin Dinsmore等人周三在报告中表示，该行预计，到12月，铜价 将跌至9,700美元，这一预期反映了该行的基本情景假设，即美国到9月份将对进口铜征收25%的关税。 分析师已将下半年铜价预测上调至平均每吨9,890美元，较之前的预测上调8.2%。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton, up from the previous estimate of $9,140 per ton [1] - It is expected that copper prices will decline to $9,700 by December of this year [1] - The peak price for copper is anticipated to reach $10,050 per ton in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The average copper price for the entire year of 2026 is projected to be $10,000 per ton, revised down from the previous forecast of $10,170 per ton [1] - By December 2026, copper prices are expected to reach $10,350 per ton [1]

高盛：已将2025年下半年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价预测上调至平均9890美元，高于此前的9140美 元。由于关税导致美国以外地区的铜库存减少，且中国市场需求强劲，2025年铜价将达到每吨10,050美 元的峰值。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890, up from the previous estimate of $9,140 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent increase in London copper futures prices, driven by a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and an intensifying global shortage of refined copper [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ceasefire agreement has contributed to a more stable geopolitical environment, which may positively influence copper prices [1] - The global shortage of refined copper is becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to sustained upward pressure on prices [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article raises the question of whether the recent price increase in London copper futures can be maintained in the long term [1]

铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C80000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | | - | - | - | - | - | source： 重要新闻： 南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年6月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment industry is expected to experience a domestic production rebound and an acceleration of overseas orders starting in the second half of 2024, driven by leading companies like CATL and BYD increasing their production capacity utilization [1] - The equipment update cycle is typically around five years, with a potential peak in domestic lithium battery equipment replacement expected around 2026-2027, following the last expansion peak in 2020-2021 [1] - New technologies such as composite copper foil, 4680 large cylindrical batteries, and solid-state batteries are anticipated to create additional equipment demand [1] Group 2: Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector is currently facing a bottoming out of short-term market conditions due to industry pressures from overcapacity, with a potential policy-driven capital expenditure on new technologies expected in 2025 [2] - New technologies in the silicon wafer segment include low-oxygen monocrystalline furnaces and tungsten wire diamond saws, aimed at improving silicon rod yield [2] - Innovations in the cell segment involve HJT and BC technologies, which enhance light conversion efficiency through design improvements [2] - In the module segment, advancements such as 0BB and stacked grid silver reduction technologies are set to further optimize efficiency and reduce silver paste consumption [2]

PET铜箔概念股持续走高，大东南（002263）、洪田股份（603800）涨停，英联股份（002846）涨超 8%，中一科技（301150）、东峰集团（601515）跟涨。 ...

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