Core Insights - The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production reached 20.369 million barrels per day for the week ending May 30, a significant increase from the previous value of 20.151 million barrels per day [1] Group 1: Production Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 0.218 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [1]

6月4日，锰硅期货主力合约大幅收涨2.12%，报5502.00元/吨。 机构观点 【消息面汇总】 瑞达期货（002961）：基本面来看，厂家减产开工率来到同期低位，但是库存整体仍偏高，成本端，本 期原料端进口锰矿石港口库存下降13.5万吨，下游铁水产量见顶回落，谨防需求回落后价格波动变大。 利润方面，内蒙古现货利润-210元/吨；宁夏现货利润-430元/吨。市场方面，钢厂采购较为谨慎，招标 价格延续下跌。技术方面，4小时周期K线位于20和60均线下方，操作上，震荡运行对待，请投资者注 意风险控制。 据悉某集团最新硅锰采购情况公布，送安徽价格5400元/吨，数量500吨，送云浮价格5550元/吨，数量 500吨；以上均为现款含税价格。 国投安信期货：价格大幅下行后有所反弹。由于前期持续的减产，库存水平有所下降，不过周都产量开 始回升，基本面好转有限。从锰矿预计到港数据来看，South32澳矿将会在本月底到港五万吨左右。铁 水产量持续小幅下滑，硅锰供应稍有上行。锰矿库存开启趋势性累增，市场预期有所转变，价格依旧疲 弱。 截至5月30日当周，天津港（600717）港口锰矿库存为312.9万吨，环比减少11.7万吨； ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月04日08时14分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%，对钢材出口形成更大的压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现，前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产方 面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，新开工面积仍大幅回落，竣工面积、施工面积同比也依然维持较大的跌幅 。上周我 的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性 规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减 产，但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，后市有望延续下行趋势，短线的反弹不影响趋势的延续。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | -- ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 to be 2.01 million tons, reflecting a 7.74% increase from April [1] - Production is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, marking a 3% rise compared to April [1] - Export volume is projected at 1.3 million tons, showing a significant increase of 17.9% from the previous month [1]

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]

2024年，淡水河谷铁矿石实际产量为32767万吨，同比增加2%，超出年初设定的产量指导区间（31000万~32000万吨），处于最新上调后的产量指导区间 （32300万~33000万吨）。2025年，淡水河谷设定的产量指导区间为32500~33500万吨，较2024年略有提升。2024年，淡水河谷铁矿石项目的资本支出为 39.43亿美元，同比增加5%，显示其在扩产方面处于持续投入状态。 产能激增 考虑到淡水河谷与力拓采用国际通行的自然年度为财年周期（每年1月1日至12月31日），而必和必拓及FMG采用的是澳大利亚财年（7月1日至次年6月30 日），本文对四大矿山的产量数据及产能规划按财年口径分别进行统计与对比。2024年，淡水河谷与力拓这两大矿山实际产量合计为65565万吨；2025年， 其指导产量区间中值为66050万吨，仅同比增加485万吨。然而，基于两家公司季报披露的数据与项目建设进度进行估算，可以发现，2025年，其计划新增产 能合计约达4005万吨，新增产能远超指导产量的增幅。相比之下，必和必拓与FMG在2024财年（2023年7月至2024年6月）合计产量为45376万吨。2025财 年，两公司 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Peru's mining sector is expected to see significant investment and production growth in the current year [1] Group 2 - Mining investment in Peru is projected to reach $4.8 billion this year [1] - Copper production in Peru is anticipated to reach 2.8 million tons this year [1]

俄罗斯原油出口量下跌 油价上涨也难以挽回 金十数据6月3日讯，在截至6月1日的四周内，俄罗斯原油出口额再次下降，原因是出口量大幅下降抵消 了近两个月来俄罗斯主要出口品级原油的首次涨价。机构油轮跟踪数据显示，在截至6月1日的四周内， 平均每天的出口量为324万桶，比截至5月25日的统计期减少了17万桶/日。在上周六与欧佩克+主要成员 国举行会议时，俄罗斯反对第三次大幅提高产量目标，表明俄罗斯更关心的是原油价格而不是产量。这 或许反映出俄罗斯可能难以在允许的范围内尽可能多地提高产量。俄罗斯的石油产量数据是保密的，因 此很难核实官方数据。对未来几周出口水平的监测可能是俄罗斯提高产量能力的最佳指标。 ...

调查显示，欧佩克5月份原油产量增加了20万桶/日，达到2754万桶/日。 ...

Core Insights - In March 2025, Shaanxi Province's crude oil production was 2.197 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% and a decline in growth rate of 1.6 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the crude oil production reached 6.185 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and an improvement in growth rate of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Monthly Production Data - March 2025 crude oil production was 2.197 million tons, accounting for 11.5% of the national production of 19.025 million tons [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a total production of 6.185 million tons, representing 11.4% of the national total of 54.088 million tons [1] Comparative Analysis - The growth rate of crude oil production in March 2025 was 3.8 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 was 0.9 percentage points lower than the national average [1]