亚洲棕榈油价格飙升至两个月高点，产量下降需求增加，市场供需如何影响未来走势？季节性因素将如 何影响市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on soybean and corn futures ahead of the USDA supply and demand report, questioning whether the market can find hope in export demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean and corn futures are facing downward pressure as the USDA supply and demand report approaches [1] - The market is looking for signs of recovery through potential export demand [1] Group 2: USDA Report Implications - The upcoming USDA report is critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics in the agricultural sector [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the report for insights that could influence future pricing and demand trends [1]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 2025年7月11日 能化产品周报—原油 研究员：刘琛瑞 交易咨询：Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面信息： 观点：绝对低库存和旺季加持给予油价下方支撑。中期基本面转弱预期较为一致，不过需观察欧佩克实际增产量以及提 防美国贸易谈判风险爆发的时间点。 东亚期货 2 • 1、全球静态库存不高 • 2、成品油旺季需求 • 3、中长期的增产压力 • 4、贸易摩擦带来的长期需求抑制 基本面要点： 东亚期货 3 • 供给：美国（EIA周报）：产量1338.5万桶/日，环比变动-0.36%，同比变动0.64%；美原油净进口量325.6万桶/日，环比变动-29.43%， ...

Group 1 - Guangdong Province has issued a guideline prohibiting the registration of "small property houses" and other illegal constructions, effective from August 4, 2025, which aims to promote the purchase of legitimate properties and regulate the real estate market [1] - Shandong Binzhou is collecting existing commercial housing to convert into affordable housing, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the real estate market and help companies reduce inventory [2] - Vanke has pledged 117 million shares of its subsidiary, Wanwu Cloud, to Shenzhen Metro Group as collateral for a loan, reflecting the company's strategy to stabilize its cash flow amid current market conditions [3] Group 2 - Times China has disclosed a debt restructuring plan involving approximately $2.9 billion, with over 85.67% of creditors agreeing to the plan, which could alleviate financial pressure and serve as a model for other distressed real estate companies [4] - The CEO of Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management, Xiao Guangrui, has resigned, and the company has appointed new leadership, indicating a potential shift in strategic direction following recent management changes [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Chlor - alkali: PVC ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach; Caustic Soda ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products having their own supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as supply changes, demand seasons, policy news, and cost fluctuations, and their prices are expected to have different trends including range - bound oscillations, maintaining strength, or being under pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a weak and volatile state. Import arrivals have increased, MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly decreased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. Some olefin malfunctions in the northwest have led to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. Although there are many planned maintenance of methanol devices in the future, the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream industries during the off - season may keep the market oscillating within a range [2] Urea - The urea market is supported by the spread of export quota news. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is expected to weaken, and the operation of compound fertilizer producers has declined. Inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream and ports, with rapid port inventory build - up. The latest Indian tender price has boosted market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. As agricultural demand enters the off - season, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. The positive support from polyethylene device maintenance has faded, increasing supply pressure. The market is in the traditional off - season, with pessimistic sentiment and low trading volume. Although there is cost support, the fundamentals are weak. For polypropylene, the increase in the number of maintenance devices in upstream petrochemical enterprises has offset some of the supply - side pressure from new capacity, but the weak demand situation remains [4] Pure Benzene - After overnight oil prices fell, the center of pure benzene has moved down. The slowdown in port inventory build - up and improved downstream purchasing atmosphere are short - term positives. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate according to seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band operations, and consider short - selling pure benzene at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [5] Styrene - Styrene futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. There is some support from the macro - level and cost, but its own supply - demand is weak. Although domestic supply has slightly decreased, there is no increase in downstream demand, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, with the spot basis weakening [6] Polyester - After overnight oil prices fell, the centers of PX and PTA have declined, and their monthly spreads have rebounded from low levels. PX supply - demand has improved with the decline in PK operation and the increase in PTA operation. Polyester operation has slightly decreased, and the PTA supply - demand pattern has changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, spreads, and monthly spreads under pressure. The PTA spot processing margin has dropped significantly and has the driving force to repair upwards. For ethylene glycol, affected by the decline in oil prices, its price has oscillated downwards. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and the improvement of the overall chemical atmosphere have provided some support. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase in the second half of the third quarter. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber downstream operation has continued to decline, and inventory has slightly increased. Bottle - chip enterprises have cut production, and the processing margin has repaired, but caution is needed due to the declining demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell at the end of the session. Downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory in East and South China continued to accumulate. With new capacity coming online, production reached a new high. Domestic demand was weak, and export delivery decreased. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and cost drivers, and in the long term, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly due to poor demand and high production. Caustic soda has shown narrow - range fluctuations. Enterprise operation has decreased, and inventory has declined month - on - month. Although alumina capacity has slightly increased, the non - aluminum downstream demand is average. With the subsidy price of liquid chlorine remaining, profit has narrowed. In the short term, cost support has strengthened, and the spot price is strong, with the futures price showing a slightly upward - oscillating trend. In the long term, supply pressure remains, and it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has continued a strong trend, with price increases in Shahe and planned price hikes in other regions. This week, the purchasing sentiment of middle and downstream players was good, and inventory in important regions has decreased. With cost rising and spot prices increasing, industry profit has slightly recovered, and capacity has slightly increased. However, processing orders are weak, and the willingness to stock up on raw sheets is low. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply contraction is needed for significant price increases. Soda ash has declined from high levels. With high - pressure supply and continuous inventory build - up, Tianjin Alkali and Chongqing Xiangyu face production volume challenges. Photovoltaic production has continued to cut, and the industry is suffering large losses. Although coal prices have risen in the short term, narrowing profit margins, leading enterprises have cost advantages. The supply will remain high - pressure, and it is expected to be a pattern of short - selling at high prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated, assumed to follow the general fuel - oil situation [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price declined overnight, and the SC08 contract dropped 1.65% during the day. The uncertainty in the economy and oil demand persists due to the flip - flopping of tariff policies. The supply - demand balance will face pressure from production resumption and a decline in demand in the fourth quarter [2]. - The fuel - oil futures followed the decline of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand and the supply risk is lifted, while the low - sulfur fuel oil lacks obvious demand drivers [2]. - Asphalt showed the strongest resistance to decline among oil - product futures. The inventory pattern has changed, and the demand recovery is expected to be delayed [3]. - The international LPG market has a loose supply. The import cost decline promotes PDH profit repair, but the market will maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices went down, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.65% during the day. Trump's threat to increase tariffs on Brazil and the uncertainty of tariff policies affect economic and oil demand. OPEC+ may pause production increase after September, but production resumption and a demand decline in Q4 will pressure supply - demand. The market is supported by the strong physical market in the peak season and the expectation of Russian oil sanctions, but the upside space above $70/barrel for Brent is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil fell today, fuel - oil futures declined. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand in shipping and deep - processing, and the demand from power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is insufficient. The supply risk is lifted as the Middle East conflict eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply advantage from the coking profit decline fades, and the demand lacks a clear driver [2]. Asphalt - Crude oil futures declined today, and asphalt showed the strongest resistance among oil - product futures. The actual production in June exceeded the plan, and the inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June. The accumulated shipment of 54 sample refineries has increased significantly year - on - year. The demand recovery is expected to be delayed due to high - temperature and rainy weather. The current asphalt price mainly follows the crude - oil direction, and the BU crack spread rebounded today [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market has a loose supply. Although crude oil has strengthened recently, LPG prices are stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, while the decline in import cost promoted PDH profit repair. The market will maintain a low - level oscillation due to the supply pressure in summer and limited upward momentum [4].

尽管如此，IEA称，炼油厂为满足夏季出行及发电需求而提高加工率，正使市场趋紧，而OPEC+上周 六宣布的最新增产并未产生明显影响。 "鉴于基本面趋紧，OPEC+加速解除减产的决定并未对市场产生实质影响，"IEA在月度报告中称，"价 格指标也显示，实物原油市场的紧张程度高于我们的供需平衡数据所显示的庞大过剩。 " 本周早些时候，OPEC成员国官员、西方石油巨头高管均表示，增产并未导致库存上升，表明市场仍"渴 求更多原油"。 IEA预计，明年全球石油需求增长平均为72万桶/日（较此前预测下调2万桶/日），供应增长为130万桶/ 日（此前预测为110万桶/日），暗示供应过剩将延续。 俄罗斯石油出口恶化 IEA在报告中指出，俄罗斯原油及成品油出口量持续恶化，令人质疑其维持产能的能力。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 国际能源署（IEA）周五表示，尽管供需平衡显示过剩，但全球石油市场可能比表面更紧张——因炼油 厂正加大加工量以满足夏季出行需求。 这家为工业化国家提供咨询的机构预计，今年全球石油供应将增加210万桶/日（较此前预测上调30万 桶/日），而需求仅增长70万桶/日，这意味着存在显著过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak Outlook**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3] - **Rebound with Upside Potential**: PVC, glass, soda ash, caustic soda [1][2] - **Bullish Rebound**: L, PP [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ is increasing production, and demand growth is slower than supply growth. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][5][6]. - **LPG**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. The market is weak. Short - term short positions are recommended [1][7][9]. - **L**: Supply and demand are both weak. There is a short - term rebound, but a long - term decline is expected. Sell - hedging can be considered [1][11]. - **PP**: The market sentiment is positive, and export margins are improving. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure exists. Consider 9 - 1 positive spreads [1][13]. - **PVC**: Macroeconomic sentiment drives the market. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure may limit the upside. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [1][16]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease. There is a short - term correction. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][18]. - **PTA/PR**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to be loose, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][23]. - **Glass**: Policy expectations are positive. There is a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - **Soda Ash**: High supply and high inventory. The rebound is limited. Consider short - term short positions [2][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a short - term rebound due to inventory reduction and subsidy. The price center is moving up [2][33]. - **Methanol**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. Hold existing short positions and add short on rebounds [3][35]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. Consider short - term short positions [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.39%, Brent dropped 2.21%, and SC rose 0.89% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in August. The current consumption season and Saudi's price increase provide some support, but supply pressure is rising. US crude inventory increased by 710 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 270 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 82.5 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. SC is expected to trade between 500 - 520 [6]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 10, the PG main contract closed at 4199 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. Although there is short - term support, the subsequent OPEC+ production increase will bring downward pressure. PDH device profit decreased, and inventory increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. PG is expected to trade between 4130 - 4230 [9]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market is in a weak situation. Although the oil price may rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season. New devices are expected to be put into production in July - August, and the long - term outlook is weak. There is a short - term rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP futures prices rose slightly, and the export margin improved. The main contract basis weakened, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure exists. There is a short - term rebound, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be considered [13]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The inventory increased, and the cost support decreased [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The production is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. There is a short - term rebound, and a short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PX spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6672 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, and the basis was 448 yuan/ton [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, and the demand from PTA is weakening. The supply - demand balance is expected to ease. PXN is not low, and the basis is high. Look for high - shorting opportunities [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to trade between 6670 - 6790 [19]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PTA spot price in East China was 4835 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis was 125 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to increase with new device launches. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Inventory is decreasing, but the overall situation is neutral. Look for high - shorting opportunities [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to trade between 4650 - 4750 [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4361 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4277 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the basis was 84 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose with more device restarts and expected increase in arrivals. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Low inventory provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to trade between 4280 - 4330 [24]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rose slightly. The basis narrowed, and the inventory decreased slightly [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy is expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Although there is short - term constraint, the price may move up slightly. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to trade between 1070 - 1100 [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The heavy - soda spot price increased, and the futures price rose. The main contract basis decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. Although the policy provides some support, the long - term situation is still weak. A wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to trade between 1215 - 1245 [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda increased in some areas, and the futures price center moved up. The basis strengthened, and the inventory decreased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, but the demand from alumina is recovering. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. Pay attention to the rebound driven by inventory reduction [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH is expected to trade between 2480 - 2530 [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China was 2446 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2399 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic device operation rate is high. The demand from MTO is weakening, and the traditional demand is entering the off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. Short positions are recommended [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA is expected to trade between 2365 - 2405 [35]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The supply is increasing as the maintenance devices resume production. The demand from industry and agriculture is weak, but the fertilizer export is growing. The cost provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt is falling due to the decline in oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the weather. Short positions are recommended [3].

证券代码：600121 证券简称：郑州煤电 公告编号：临 2025-029 郑州煤电股份有限公司 2025 年第二季度主要生产经营数据公告 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 年 4～6 月 | 2024 年 4～6 月 | 同比变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.煤炭产量 | 万吨 | 185 | 165 | 12.12 | | 2.煤炭销量 | 万吨 | 185 | 164 | 12.80 | | 3.煤炭收入 | 万元 | 76,697 | 88,401 | -13.24 | | 4.煤炭成本 | 万元 | 68,432 | 66,696 | 2.60 | | 5.毛利 | 万元 | 8,265 | 21,705 | -61.92 | | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 年 1～6 月 | 2024 年 1～6 月 | 同比变化(%) | | 1.煤炭产量 | 万吨 | 368 | 345 | 6.67 | | 2.煤炭销量 | 万吨 | 367 | 344 | 6.69 | | 3.煤炭收入 | 万元 | 162,407 | 187,928 | ...

Group 1 - The conference "2025 High-Quality Consumption Brand TOP100 Innovation Ecosystem Conference" was held in Shanghai, focusing on exploring new paths for brand growth amidst economic cycles [2] - The "2025 High-Quality Consumption Brand TOP100 Trend Insight Report" was released, providing insights into consumer market trends [2] Group 2 - Companies with higher barriers to entry are better positioned to navigate economic cycles, as they can effectively combine supply chain, distribution, and consumer perception capabilities [4][6] - A strong supply chain ensures product innovation, quality, and user experience, while deep distribution makes products easily accessible to consumers [6] - Brands should consider counter-trend strategies, such as adopting retro methods in product development, to attract consumer interest [6] Group 3 - Companies in the beauty industry can navigate economic cycles by creating a matrix of different brand images and price points to cater to diverse consumer preferences [7][9] - Key strategies include enhancing core competencies, achieving a balanced online and offline presence, and investing in international expansion [9] - Providing emotional value through products is essential, as seen in the development of products that resonate with consumer psychological needs [9] Group 4 - Understanding the supply-demand relationship during economic cycles is crucial for identifying market opportunities [10][12] - Companies should focus on emerging consumer segments, such as the wellness market for younger demographics, to drive growth [12] - The introduction of innovative services, like personalized massage robots, can enhance customer experience and address health concerns [12] Group 5 - Standardizing service delivery is vital for adapting to changing consumer demographics, from "80s" to "00s" generations [13][15] - The challenge lies in meeting diverse consumer expectations through a standardized service model [15] - Implementing a digital management system can improve service delivery efficiency and responsiveness to consumer needs [15]