Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, trading around $3133, following a drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, closing at $3177.32 per ounce. This decline was attributed to increased risk appetite due to improved trade sentiment, leading investors to exit the gold market [1] - The US dollar index rebounded, rising 0.08% to 101.04, while US Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the critical 4.5% level at 4.536%. Changes in interest rate expectations have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased to 74%, down from earlier expectations of a potential cut in July [1] Trade Relations - The immediate catalyst for the drop in gold prices was the easing of global trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs and pausing tariff imposition for 90 days. This positive news boosted market risk appetite, leading to a rise in major Wall Street indices as investors shifted from safe-haven assets to higher-risk investments. President Trump's comments about potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea further bolstered market confidence [2] Geopolitical Risks - Despite the easing trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain. Trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing slowly, with significant differences in agreement scope. The EU's trade commissioner has stated that they will not accept an unfair agreement under pressure. The US has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, threatening to expand the scope of tariffs. The $9.5 trillion trade and investment relationship between the US and EU faces serious challenges, which could potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4] Market Dynamics - The recent adjustment in the gold market reflects both improved risk sentiment and profit-taking by investors following previous gains. The price of gold is likely to remain volatile due to the interplay of trade dynamics, monetary policy, and economic data. Investors should pay attention to the upcoming US April PPI data and retail sales figures, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cut expectations [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold recorded a significant bearish candle, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure. The price tested a one-month low around $3167 before stabilizing, indicating potential further declines. Traders should monitor the support level at $3150, with a risk of dropping to around $3060. In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the price has extended its decline after breaking below $3200, with ongoing tests around the $3130 level [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices continue to decline, reaching a low of $3120 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, despite a weak US dollar and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices is the easing of global trade tensions, which has led to a temporary improvement in risk sentiment and stable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] - Current gold prices are at a critical support level, with potential for a rapid decline to $3100 or lower if upcoming US PPI data and comments from Powell are hawkish [2] Group 2 - After breaking below the key support level of $3200, gold has also fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a clear bearish signal [3] - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ show increasing bearish momentum, while RSI has entered negative territory, suggesting that downward momentum is not yet over [3] - If gold fails to hold the $3100 support level, the next target could be $3075 [4] Group 3 - In the crude oil market, prices opened at $63.63 and experienced fluctuations, ultimately closing at $62.86, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The analysis suggests a target range for oil prices between $61.0 and $60.7, with a stop loss set at $62.4 [5]

义乌的一家无缝内衣生产企业也感受到了这股热潮。企业负责人王晋围介绍，4月以来，美国剧增的关税给企业带来挑战，但他们的产品在创新性、质量、 价格等方面都具有较强的市场竞争力。关税政策调整后，美国客户催促发货，企业正全力以赴加紧生产。 义乌市璟文进出口有限公司总经理吴庆芬更是兴奋不已。她表示，关税下降的消息一出，"朋友圈都炸掉了，都在说要开干了"。一位美国老客户下单了30万 双袜子，这是她"久违"的来自美国的大订单。吴庆芬和团队正加紧工厂端生产和出货，也加大接单投入，提醒客户抓紧时间盘库存，需要的话就抓紧补库 存，增强抗风险能力。 中美关税调整后，美线航运也迎来了一波反弹。多家货代公司表示，目前美线5月底发货的船只舱位已接近满舱。美森、长荣、COSCO等船公司也发布了涨 价通知，每个集装箱的运价上涨500—1500美元不等。业内人士表示，此前一些船公司缩减了三成以上美国方向的运力，导致目前美线航运运力出现供需错 配，带动运价上涨。随着船公司重新调整运力分布，未来美线舱位紧张的情况有望缓解。 高盛分析师Philip Sun预测，未来90天中国出口将非常火爆。他指出，面对这90天的关税暂缓期，中国出口商和美国进口商将 ...

美元周三小幅走高，从早些时候的下跌中反弹，因为投资者等待全球贸易战将继续缓解的新信号。 包括高盛、摩根大通和巴克莱在内的几家主要券商最近下调了对美国经济衰退的预测和对美联储政策宽松的看法。 "显然，如今一切都仍然非常集中在贸易上，这仍然是推动事情发展的巨大催化剂，"杰富瑞（Jefferies）驻纽约的全球外汇主管布拉德·贝克特尔（Brad Bechtel）说。 "亚洲货币领域仍然存在很大的波动性，但美元应该仍处于逆势反弹中，然后最终将再次开始走低，可能是通过某种后门或闭门安排。" 衡量美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数上涨 0.06% 至 101.04，欧元下跌 0.06% 至 1.1177 美元。 投资者也在消化韩国财政部副部长崔智英 （Choi Ji-young） 于 5 月 5 日会见美国财政部的罗伯特·卡普罗特 （Robert Kaproth） 讨论外汇市场，这帮助美元 兑韩元跌至一周来的最低水平。 但彭博社援引一位知情人士的话报道称，美国不会就美元走软进行谈判，作为关税谈判的一部分，亚洲货币的波动有所缓和。 韩元兑美元上涨 0.84% 至 1,402.66 美元，此前曾上涨 2.1%。美元兑日元下跌 0.5 ...

周四(5月15日)亚洲交易时段，澳元兑美元延续近期涨势，盘中触及0.6444，日内涨幅达0.36%。澳大利 亚最新就业数据表现强劲，叠加市场对中美贸易协议的乐观预期，共同构成支撑澳元走强的双重动能。 尽管利率市场已将澳洲联储下周降息25个基点的概率从90%下调至80%，但货币宽松预期仍主导市场定 价。 金融市场定价显示，交易员正消化两大央行政策路径的分野。根据ASX澳洲联储利率追踪器，货币市场 目前预计5月20日会议降息50个基点至3.60%的概率为54%，反映市场对澳洲联储加速宽松的强烈预期。 这种政策分化格局——美联储按兵不动而澳洲联储持续降息——可能在中长期对澳元构成结构性压力。 技术面分析亦呈现矛盾信号：日线图显示澳元兑美元维持在九天指数移动平均线（EMA）上方，14日 相对强弱指数（RSI）持稳于50中性水平上方，暗示短期上行动能犹存。 从价位结构看，0.6440区域构成当前多空争夺焦点。若有效突破去年12月高点0.6515，或将打开通向 0.6687的上行通道，该价位是2024年11月创下的七个月高点。下行方面，九天EMA所在的0.6429构成首 道支撑，失守则可能下探50日EMA的0.6355。 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 中线行情： 4 月初特朗普对等关税措施远超市场预期，引发全球市场剧震并打压包括黄 金在内的全球金融资产；但因特朗普恃强凌弱蛮横无理反复无常损害美元信用引 发跨国资金抛离美国资产行为，来自全球贸易货币体系重组、美国和全球经济衰 退前景、以及美国金融市场波动性的三重避险需求推动 4 月 22 日伦敦金价突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然部分多头获利平仓叠加特朗普政府安抚市场言论使得金价 有所回调，但整体看中级上涨趋势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则 推动国内外改革的决心并没有根本性变化 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to improved global trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, which has boosted market risk appetite [1][3][5] - Gold prices opened lower this week, with a significant drop of 50 points, and are currently trading below key resistance levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3][5] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, alongside negative technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling bearish momentum [1][3][5] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the support level of 3200, further declines could occur, potentially targeting the 2909 level [3][5] - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with the previous bullish trend line broken, leading to increased downward pressure on gold prices [3][5][7] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the US PPI and retail sales, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [1][3]

Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply due to easing global trade tensions, which reduced concerns about a potential economic recession and diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The recent drop in gold prices saw a significant decline of $50 within three hours, breaking below the $3200 mark [1][3] - The U.S. April CPI annual rate decreased to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two interest rate cuts by 2025 totaling 56 basis points [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under a bearish correction, with the price failing to break the key resistance level of $3260 [5] - Technical indicators show negative pressure on gold prices, with the current price below the 50-day moving average and a negative signal from the relative strength index (RSI) [5] - The analysis suggests a continued downtrend, with a potential target of $2909 if the price breaks below the previous low of $3200 [3][5] Group 3 - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions below $3200, with specific targets set at $3175 and $3150 [7] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach, combining technical and fundamental analysis while maintaining strict risk management practices [7]

Global-E Online (GLBE) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 14, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company Participants Alan Katz - VP - IRAmir Schlachet - Co-Founder and CEOOfer Koren - CFONir Debbi - Co-Founder and PresidentBrian Peterson - Managing DirectorChris Z - ED - Equity ResearchSamad Samana - Managing DirectorAndrew Bauch - Director - Equity ResearchScott Berg - Managing DirectorMaddie Schrage - Vice PresidentMatthew O'Neill - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Will Nance - AnalystJames Faucette - AnalystBrent Br ...

Global-E Online (GLBE) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 14, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company Participants Alan Katz - VP - IRAmir Schlachet - Co-Founder and CEOOfer Koren - CFONir Debbi - Co-Founder and PresidentBrian Peterson - Managing DirectorChris Z - ED - Equity ResearchSamad Samana - Managing DirectorAndrew Bauch - Director - Equity ResearchScott Berg - Managing DirectorMaddie Schrage - Vice PresidentMatthew O'Neill - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Will Nance - AnalystJames Faucette - AnalystBrent Br ...