相聚资本研究总监、基金经理余晓畅认为，下半年经济本身不是决定股市走向的胜负手，而是可能出现 的变局点，也对应着股市的变盘。宏观经济之外，新兴产业的发展趋势也是需要高度关注的核心变量， 比如AI的推进等。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 余晓畅认为，在贸易冲突的不确定背景下，企业的内在质地尤为重要。具有全球竞争力、品牌力突出， 在海外市场具有广阔市场空间的公司，具备了从纷繁多杂环境下穿越周期的能力。当不确定成为常态， 更需要具备自下而上从变化中找到突破点的投资能力。比如二季度的新消费和创新药行情，便是这样的 变局点。看到变化，并有突破和获利的能力，这也将是未来的发力方向之一。 在余晓畅看来，虽然二季度A股市场AI板块有所沉寂，但国内AI的发展并未停歇，投资中需要更要关注 核心节点、比如产业趋势的临界点，淡化短期业绩，关键环节的突破是股价定价的核心。 对于近来火爆的新消费，余晓畅认为，本质是一代人有一代人的消费习惯和理念，消费习惯的变迁也带 来了对应消费公司的崛起，周期趋势概莫能外。落到投资上，理性客观看待板块炒作，具有内在持续运 营和业绩兑现能力的企业，才是长期投资的优选。 展望下半年，余晓畅认为，互联网、金属等 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 5 | | 三、需求概况 | | 8 | | 四、库存与估值 13 | | | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | 16 | | | 免责声明 17 | | | 能化板块研发报告 燃料油半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 高硫利多支撑持续，低硫弱势震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 高硫燃料油市场在 25 年上半年持续强势，其利多支撑由供应转向需求。 一季度，高硫燃料油主要受供应端的支撑，俄罗斯、伊朗和墨西哥等主要高 硫供应地区都存在自身的供应问题。二季度地缘冲突加剧叠加高硫发电需求 逐步启动，埃及大量发布招标购买高硫燃料油用于发电。 2025 年上半年低硫燃料油基本面整体维持弱势，Al-Zour 炼厂稳定运 营后对外低硫出口供应开始回升至高位水平，南苏丹重质低硫原料回归。尼 日利亚 Dangote 炼厂上半年仍持续生产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be regarded as a form of short - term investment guidance: - **Positive Outlook**: Rubber (Trend intensity: 1) [13] - **Negative Outlook**: PP (Trend intensity: -1), Benzene (Trend intensity: -1) [37][58] - **Neutral Outlook**: Other commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. (Trend intensity: 0) [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX, PTA**: Cost collapses, valuations decline, and month - spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. For PTA, the market is turning into a stockpiling pattern, and the long - PX short - PTA position should be held [11]. - **MEG**: The upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly due to factors such as the recovery of overseas tapping operations and changes in import volume [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the medium term, due to high supply and supply growth exceeding demand growth, the fundamental pressure is still high [16]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak oscillation state, with domestic factory and social inventories accumulating [20]. - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate. Although geopolitical issues are uncertain, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak [33]. - **PP**: The spot market oscillates, and the trading volume is average. The trend is weak due to factors such as weak demand and low trading enthusiasm [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: The near - term contract will make up for the premium, and there will be a short - term rebound. In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - output pattern will affect the market, and shorting the profit of caustic soda will be the main strategy [39]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate. The import pulp market shows a decline in both futures and spot prices, affected by factors such as weak demand and high inventory [43]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with minor price adjustments in some regions [48]. - **Methanol**: It will oscillate in the short term. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals [50]. - **Urea**: It will oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. - **Benzene**: It will oscillate in the short term. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase significantly, and the demand will be weak, leading to a decline in profit [60]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, and it is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term [64]. - **LPG**: The spot is firm, and the market structure is strengthening. The market is affected by factors such as changes in Saudi CP expectations and device maintenance [66]. - **PVC**: It is strong in the short term but has limited upside space. The high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session adjusts narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as freight rates and market supply and demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: An East China factory's 1 million - ton PX unit has started a one - month maintenance. The PX price rebounded, and the night - session naphtha price declined [8]. - **PTA**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton unit reduced its load, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton unit was put into production. The PTA market is turning into a stockpiling pattern [9]. - **MEG**: An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit plans to restart this weekend, and another 500,000 - ton/year unit plans to restart next week. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased [9]. Rubber - The trading center of the imported rubber market has weakened, and the domestic natural rubber spot price has adjusted narrowly. The overseas tapping operations are gradually recovering, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [14]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises has changed [15]. Synthetic Rubber - As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [16]. - In the short term, due to geopolitical instability and strong macro - sentiment, the polybutadiene rubber is expected to oscillate [18]. Asphalt - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories increased by 2.5% compared with June 23, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses increased by 0.4% [31]. - The domestic asphalt production increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 21.5% year - on - year [31]. LLDPE - This week, the domestic PE market mostly weakened. The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the crude oil market has fallen back, affecting the market sentiment of related products [32]. - The supply pressure of PE in the 2025 09 contract is high, and the demand is weak, especially in the shed film industry [33]. PP - This morning, the domestic PP market was narrowly sorted. The PP futures' upward trend had limited support for the spot market, and downstream factories were cautious in purchasing [37]. Caustic Soda - The purchase price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously reduced, and most enterprises' prices have followed the decline [39]. - The caustic soda futures price has continued to fall due to the reduction of the purchase price by Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 contract will face delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [39]. Pulp - This period, the imported pulp market has seen a decline in both futures and spot prices. The reasons include the decline in the futures price, weak demand, and high supply pressure [46]. Glass - The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable, with slight adjustments in some areas [48]. Methanol - The spot price of the port methanol market has mostly increased, and the inventory has increased significantly. The inland market has continued to rise, and some buyers have actively replenished their stocks [52]. Urea - As of June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.53% week - on - week. The domestic urea market is affected by sentiment and is weakly oscillating [56]. - In the short term, the urea spot price shows some resilience, but in the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. Benzene - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, with increased domestic production and imports. The demand structure has changed significantly, and the inventory remains high [59]. - In the first half of the year, benzene maintained a high - profit, high - start - up, and low - inventory pattern, but in the second half of the year, the pattern will reverse [60]. Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak, with a downward trading center. The supply is oscillating and decreasing, and the downstream demand is lukewarm [64]. LPG - On June 25, 2025, the expected prices of Saudi CP in July and August decreased. The PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates have changed [68]. - There are many domestic LPG factory and PDH device maintenance plans [74]. PVC - The domestic PVC spot market price has been narrowly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed, with increased enterprise maintenance, low demand, high inventory, and mainly export delivery [78]. - The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The night - session of fuel oil adjusted narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term. There are changes in freight rates, such as the increase in the SCFIS European route and the decrease in the SCFIS US - West route [83].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in the proportion of bullish positions in gold [1] - The upcoming release of the US PCE data is anticipated to impact market sentiment, particularly if it shows a decrease in inflation, which could potentially boost gold prices [1] Group 2 - The data shows a significant disparity in bullish and bearish positions across various indices, with the S&P 500 having 72% bullish and 28% bearish positions, while the Nasdaq has 16% bullish and 84% bearish positions [3] - The Hang Seng Index shows a 36% bullish and 64% bearish split, indicating a more cautious sentiment in the Hong Kong market [3] - The DAX 40 index has 39% bullish and 61% bearish positions, reflecting a similar cautious outlook in the German market [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment with 17% bullish and 83% bearish positions, while the Euro/Yen pair has a significant 92% bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a notable 84% bullish sentiment, contrasting with the bearish outlook in other currency pairs [4] - The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen pair shows a 39% bullish and 61% bearish split, indicating a mixed sentiment [4]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 1. 2025 年 6 月 26 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22290~22390 元/吨，双燕成交 于 22380~22530 元/吨，1#锌主流成交于 22220~22320 元/吨。早盘市场对 均价报价升水 40~50 元/吨，无对盘报价。第二交易时段，普通国产报价 对 2507 合约升水 110 元/吨，白银对 2507 合约升水 160 元/吨，会泽对 2507 合约升水 200 元/吨，高价品牌双燕对 2507 合约报价升水 200~250 元/吨。 2. 宁波市场主流品牌 0#锌成交价在 22280~223 ...

纯碱 2509（SA509） 1.2 期货行情数据 | | 表 1: 纯碱期货当日行情表 20250625 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | | 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 日增仓 成交量 | | | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 铝菌 | | 纯碱2508 | 1171 | 3 0.26% 11699 | -29 | 2655 | 1166 | 1173 | 1159 | 1166 | | 纯碱2509 M | 1166 | 1 0.09% 1561404 -7874 953401 | | | 1158 | 1168 | 1152 | 1160 | | 纯碱2601 | 1159 | 2 0.17% 557916 2848 125828 | | | 1150 | 1160 | 1146 | 1154 | | | | | | | | | 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 | | 1.3 现货市场方面 6 月 25 日国内纯碱企业报价延续低位态势,其中轻碱主流出厂 价格在 1250- 135 ...

Group 1 - Israeli military destroyed a building in southern Lebanon, linked to a Hezbollah member who was killed by an Israeli drone a week prior [3] - The building was reportedly used by Hezbollah to observe Israeli forces [3] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may relax sanctions on Iranian oil, while maintaining the maximum pressure policy [5][7] - Trump mentioned that the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks next week, with a potential agreement in sight [7] - The core U.S. demand remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons [7] Group 3 - Russian defense ministry reported intercepting and shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in various regions, including 23 in Kursk and 11 in Rostov [8] - Russian air force reportedly dropped bombs on Ukrainian positions in Dnipro region, although the specific date of the video release is unclear [8] - Ukrainian air force reported shooting down 24 drones since the evening of the previous day [10]

Core Points - The EU leaders did not reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia despite emphasizing the need to increase pressure and potentially implement new measures [1] - A total of 26 out of 27 EU member states expressed clear support for the statement regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The EU called for member states to enhance the supply of air defense systems, anti-drone equipment, and large-caliber ammunition to Ukraine [1] - The EU announced a financial aid package of €30.6 billion to Ukraine by 2025, with €3.5 billion already disbursed through the "Ukraine Aid Instrument" and €7 billion coming from the interest on frozen Russian assets [1]

当地时间6月25日，在荷兰海牙出席北约峰会期间，美国总统特朗普称， 伊朗在向美国在卡 塔尔的军事基地发动导弹袭击前，提前向美方发出了警告，并经过他本人批准。 特朗普称 赞伊朗此举"非常友好"。 " 他们非常友好 ，他们警告了我们，"特朗普在25日的北约峰会记者会上说，"你看到了，前 几天有14枚导弹朝我们发射。全部14枚导弹都被我们击落了，真了不起。" 按特朗普的说法，伊朗方面在袭击美军基地之前，与美方先沟通了打击计划，甚至和美方商 量具体袭击时间。 "他们说，'我们要发射导弹，1点钟可以吗？'我说没问题。 基地里所有人都撤离了。"特朗 普称，得知消息的美军提前疏散了基地人员，避免了伤亡，伊朗发射的导弹被全数拦截。 在谈及伊以冲突和停火时，特朗普作出矛盾表态。他表示，自己"非常确信"以色列与伊朗之 间的军事冲突已经结束。但他还说， 以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能再次爆发，也许很快 。 特朗普说不认为伊朗会重新进行核计划 。 伊朗宣布对美军基地实施导弹打击 当地时间6月23日晚间， 伊朗武装部队发表声明，宣布对美军驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地实施 导弹打击 。声明称，此次行动是对美军袭击伊朗核设施的回应，经伊朗最高国家安 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in A-shares is primarily driven by the approval of a "virtual asset trading license" by Guotai Junan International, allowing direct trading of cryptocurrencies on their platform, which has significantly boosted market confidence [1] - The market experienced a sharp decline after the initial surge, highlighting the challenges of timing short-term market movements despite a generally positive long-term outlook for value investors [1][2] - Economic data has shown resilience despite initial pessimism following the US-China trade conflict, with export figures remaining strong and consumer policies supporting stability [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a downward trend in fundamentals, yet there are structural opportunities in certain sectors, particularly in technology, which is seen as a growth driver [6][7] - The concept of technological advancement is emphasized as a key factor in economic growth, with significant breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion indicating a potential for recovery and prosperity [8] - The market is experiencing a rotation phenomenon, where sector performance varies significantly, reflecting a shift from a bear market to a bull market, with indices showing upward movement amidst this rotation [9][10] Group 3 - Financial stocks have played a crucial role in driving the index above key resistance levels, supported by a macro backdrop of declining interest rates, while technology stocks are also showing signs of recovery [11] - The current market environment is described as both optimistic and challenging for investors, with the need for a disciplined approach to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends during periods of volatility [11]