策略报告 | 投资策略 特朗普的美国"梦"与现实 证券研究报告 "新秩序"研究系列二 导读：近期美国宏观经济数据仍延续"硬数据维持韧性，软数据开始走弱"的特征， 而关税对实体经济的实质性影响尚未完全体现。在此背景下，受益于特朗普对于关 税问题的阶段性缓和，市场出现风偏修复带来的反弹。然而，从事实角度出发，当 下对于特朗普关税问题的谈判仍然未出现明显的实质性进展，且考虑到其政策目标 背后的政治矛盾，"特朗普扰动"或仍未结束。指数层面，标普 500 目前已走出超 跌区间，重回 3 月震荡平台，赔率优势有所缩小。往后看，二季度之后关税的谈判 节奏及对美国经济的传导效果仍需重点关注。 "特朗普交易"的预期差。去年七月下旬以来，由于突发事件导致特朗普胜选几率 大大提高，市场开始关注并在阶段内围绕"特朗普交易"进行演绎。然而时至今年 年初以来，资产价格的演绎出现反转。资产价格变动的背后是主要矛盾的变化。在 特朗普上台之前及上台之初，其政策的不确定性给市场带来较大的想象空间，市场 优先关注了其减税带来的利好，而忽视了关税的烈度。时至今日，站在特朗普 2.0 时代"新政百日"的重要节点，重新检验特朗普的政策倾向及美国经济的现 ...

美国总统特朗普宣称：不会对加班征税。 美国社会的中层和工薪阶层将迎来最大规模的减税。 是时候让普通民众（Main Street，相对于华尔街而言）获胜了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Republican Party is seeking to raise billions of dollars through the sale of federal land to fund a significant tax cut plan proposed by Trump, despite facing opposition from some within the party [1] Group 1: Legislative Plan - The plan involves selling over 11,000 acres (approximately 4,450 hectares) of federal land in Utah and Nevada [1] - The House Natural Resources Committee has approved this land sale as part of a broader legislative package [1] Group 2: Financial Goals - The overall legislative proposal aims to raise more than $18 billion through increased federal oil, gas, and coal leasing sales, as well as timber sales and other methods [1] - The Republican goal is to cut $2 trillion in spending while reducing taxes by $4.5 trillion [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, emphasized that the Trump administration's economic agenda, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, aims to strengthen the U.S. as a global capital destination [1] - Many corporate executives expressed concerns about the aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have led to companies pausing their investment plans [1] - Citigroup's CEO, Jane Fraser, noted that clients are preparing for difficult situations, with companies strengthening balance sheets and delaying business expenditures or investments [1] Group 2 - A Reuters poll indicated a high risk of global economic recession, with 92% of economists stating that the Trump administration's tariff policies have harmed business confidence [2] - The IMF's Managing Director, Georgieva, revised the global GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8%, attributing this to the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - Georgieva warned that the world is moving towards a period of increased shocks and volatility, with developed economies like the U.S. facing more inflation [2]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #海外政治 特朗普 2.0 百日新政复盘及后市展望 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《五一假期海外市场：强非农再压降 息预期》 2025-05-05 《美债天量的到期 vs 供给，哪个更致 命？》 2025-04-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：特朗普 2.0 百日新政兼具特朗普 1.0 政策延续和新政治周期 起点的双重特征，而在政策落地上，关税和财政政策成为最大的两个"预 期差"来源，二者在影响全球增长预期的同时，也使得特朗普 2.0 百日 新政内的大类资产走势与 1.0 时 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's largest bull maintains the expectation that the S&P 500 index will exceed 7000 points by the end of the year, despite many strategists lowering their forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Christopher Harvey from Wells Fargo Securities predicts the S&P 500 index will reach 7007 points by year-end, consistent with his earlier forecast from early 2025 [1] - The index has risen over 10% in the first nine trading days, marking the longest upward streak in over twenty years [1] - Harvey's estimate assumes a further 24% increase in the benchmark index over the next eight months [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The potential impacts of the Trump trade war, tax cut promises, and the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts loom over the market outlook [1] - Harvey notes a shift in the White House's tone, suggesting that a change from a confrontational to a more conciliatory approach could significantly alter market dynamics [1] - He believes that the peak of uncertainty has been surpassed [1]

5月5日，美国纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔（Kathy Hochul）宣布，她已同意偿还约 65 亿美元的联邦政府债 务。此后，纽约州的失业救济金将增加，企业税将减少。此前，这位民主党州长已排除动用州储备金偿 还债务的可能性，这是他与州参议院多数党领袖安德里亚·斯图尔特-考辛斯 (民主党) 和州议长卡尔·希斯 蒂 (民主党) 就预计至少 2540 亿美元的预算达成的更广泛协议的一部分。议员们最早可能在本周就支出 法案进行投票，这将是 15 年来的最新预算。 ...

美国财长贝森特：2017年减税政策的持续将带来经济刺激。 ...

美国关税传来最新消息。 刚刚，据日本共同社报道，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等关税"全面豁免。另据彭博社报道，在与美国的贸易谈判 中，印度提议在对等的基础上，对一定数量的钢铁、汽车零部件和药品实行零关税。 与此同时，美国宏观数据也持续扰动市场。今晚，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国4月ISM 服务业PMI指数录得51.6，重回扩张区间，大幅高于预期的50.2。分析称，数据表明，在美国制造业受关税影 响持续收缩的背景下，服务业仍表现稳健。 受此影响，美股三大指数跌幅收窄，道指率先转涨，截至发稿，道指涨0.14%，纳指跌幅收窄至0.45%。美国 财政部长贝森特在最新的讲话中表示，美国股市具有"抗脆弱性"，美国将巩固"全球资本中心"的地位。 关税的变数 北京时间5日晚间，日本共同社援引知情人士的话报道，在最近的关税谈判中，美国拒绝对日本予以"对等 关税"全面豁免。 消息人士透露，上周华盛顿会晤期间，美国财政部长贝森特等美国官员告知日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正，特朗 普政府只愿意考虑降低14%的特定关税，该关税已暂停实施至今年7月初。但日本一直主张彻底取消"对等关 税"，包括对汽车加征25%的关税以及对钢铁和铝加 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the interconnected factors of Trump's tariff policies, tax cuts, and deregulation agenda are key to driving long-term investment in the U.S. economy [1]