路透调查：28位经济学家中有20位预计泰国央行将在4月30日将其关键利率下调至1.75%。泰国央行预 计到三季度末将基准利率降至1.50%，较二月份的临时调查中公布的2.00%有所下降。 ...

类似情况并非个例，记者梳理发现，4月以来多家民营银行密集宣布下调存款利率，部分银行5年期存款 利率跌至2.5%以下，且长短期"倒挂"。此外，部分机构月内已进行了两至三次利率下调动作。 部分银行三年期、五年期利率"倒挂" 记者梳理发现，4月以来，多家民营银行密集下调存款利率，其中部分机构已进行了两至三次下调动 作。 例如，华瑞银行本月针对中长期限的存款利率已进行了三次调整。4月1日起，该行五年期存款利率由 2.7%调整至2.65%，随后在4月16日调整至2.55%，最新公告显示，4月28日起五年期存款利率将进一步 下调至2.4%。此外，该行三年期存款利率也在4月16日由2.7%下调至2.6%，并将在4月28日起进一步下 调至2.5%。最新调整后，该行三年期存款月内累计下调20BP，五年期月内累计下调30BP，三年期和五 年期利率出现"倒挂"。 每经记者 李玉雯 每经编辑 张益铭 4月27日，华瑞银行公告称，自次日起调整部分期限存款挂牌利率，其中整存整取三年期、五年期分别 调整为2.5%、2.4%，较此前分别下调10BP、15BP。记者注意到，本月以来，该行已三次调整存款利 率，调整集中在三年期及五年期的利率水平 ...

Group 1 - In the first quarter of 2025, household deposits surged by 9.22 trillion yuan, with an average increase of over 6,000 yuan per person, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The primary reasons for the increase in household savings include the need to prepare for unexpected events such as unemployment and illness, as well as concerns over the risks associated with stock markets, funds, and bank wealth management products [1] Group 2 - Starting from 2024, state-owned banks have continuously lowered deposit interest rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 2.25% to 1.55%, resulting in a decrease of 700 yuan in interest income for depositors [5] - The reduction in deposit rates is aimed at encouraging depositors to invest and consume, stimulating economic growth, and reducing the financing costs for society [5] Group 3 - There is an increasing risk of bankruptcy or dissolution among small and medium-sized banks, with 195 such banks announcing dissolution in 2024 alone [8] - Depositors are advised to diversify their savings across multiple banks, keeping deposits below 500,000 yuan per bank to ensure safety in case of bank failures [8] Group 4 - To avoid liquidity issues, depositors are recommended to stagger their fixed deposits into different terms (1 year, 2 years, and 3 years) to maintain access to funds while still benefiting from higher interest rates [11] Group 5 - Preparations for potential asset bubbles bursting in real estate and stock markets are advised, particularly in major cities where housing prices are significantly high relative to income [14] - The current high price-to-earnings ratios of newly listed stocks indicate a potential bubble, with many stocks experiencing declines post-listing [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The insurance industry saw a positive growth in premium income, with total original premium income reaching 21,745 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [8][6]. - Life insurance premiums decreased by 1.0% year-on-year but showed a month-on-month increase of 2.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline [8][6]. - Property insurance premiums increased by 4.2% year-on-year, driven primarily by non-auto insurance segments [8][6]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 37.84 trillion yuan by the end of March 2025, a 5.4% increase from the previous year [8][6]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among listed companies, with New China Life and China Pacific Insurance achieving positive premium growth, while Ping An experienced a decline in new orders [8][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance industry achieved a total original premium income of 21,745 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with life insurance contributing 13,832 billion yuan and property insurance contributing 3,867 billion yuan [8][6]. - The overall premium growth turned positive, primarily due to the narrowing decline in life insurance [8][6]. Life Insurance Companies - Life insurance companies reported original premium income of 16,590 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [8][6]. - The decline in life insurance premiums is narrowing, with a month-on-month positive growth trend observed [8][6]. Property Insurance Companies - Property insurance companies recorded original premium income of 5,155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [8][6]. - The growth in property insurance is mainly attributed to non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance and liability insurance showing significant increases [8][6]. Asset Changes - As of March 2025, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 37.84 trillion yuan, with a net asset increase of 6% year-on-year [8][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall underwriting profitability of the industry is improving, with expectations of continued growth in property insurance premiums [8][6].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【非银】3Q25传统险预定利率或再次下调至2.0%——《人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025 年一季度例会》点评 3Q25传统险预定利率或再次下调至2.0%，分红险等浮动收益型产品将更具发展土壤。未来随着险企浮动收益 型产品占比逐渐提升，负债成本的压力缓释及投资风险的有效分散将有助于险企进一步提高权益配置比例，加 大入市力度；同时，新金融工具准则下险企亦将通过高股息策略系统性提升OCI股票占比，降低利润波动的同 时增加确定性分红收入，以弥补票息收入的减少。 （王一峰/黄怡婷） 2025- 04-21 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【三友化工（600409.SH）】纯碱、PVC景气下行Q4业绩同比承压下滑 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【非银】3Q25传统险预定利率或再次下调至2.0%——《人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025 年一季度例会》点评 3Q25传统险预定利率或再次下调至2.0%，分红险等浮动收益型产品将更具发展土壤。未来随着险企浮动收益 型产品占比逐渐提升，负债成本的压力缓释及投资风险的有效分散将有助于险企进一步提高权益配置比例，加 大入市力度；同时，新金融工具准则下险企亦将通过高股息策略系统性提升OCI股票占比，降低利润波动的同 时增加确定性分红收入，以弥补票息收入的减少。 （王一峰/黄怡婷） 2025- 04-21 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【三友化工（600409.SH）】纯碱、PVC景气下行Q4业绩同比承压下滑 ...

明明｜中信证券首席经济学家 S1010517100001 债市启明｜美债波动原因、影响几何？ 美债市场近期波动剧烈，反映市场对于美元资产信任在下降。美债波动剧烈或中枢处 于高位或将加剧全球主权债市场定价压力，并可能推动资金转向黄金及中债、欧债等 替代资产。对中国市场而言，中长期来看，受益于政策托底和国内经济韧性，A股和 人民币资产配置价值或将凸显。 风险因素：特朗普政策变动超预期；美国与其他国家贸易摩擦风险超预期；全球经济 超预期；美国货币政策超预期；地缘政治风险超预期等。 吴威辰｜中信证券 电池与能源管理首席分析师 S1010521060001 锂电负极｜宁德时代快充、钠电等新品发布，打开负极材料新空间 2025年4月21日，宁德时代在超级科技日上发布了二代神行、二代钠电、骁遥双核等 新产品，其中二代神行电池峰值充电倍率12C全球领先，石墨负极与负极包覆材料有 望受益，二代钠电池在极寒环境下保持良好的充放电性能，启停电池计划2025年6月 量产，动力电池计划2025年12月量产，有望带动硬碳负极放量，此外，宁德时代发布 的骁遥双核电池，应用了自生成负极技术，金属直接沉积在负极的集流体上，我们预 计该新技术正 ...

路透调查：预计印尼央行将在2025年第二季将7天期逆回购利率下调25个基点至5.50%（与3月调查结果 相同）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "deposit specialists" who actively seek high-interest deposit rates across different regions as banks continuously lower their fixed deposit interest rates [1][3][8]. Group 1: Deposit Specialists' Activities - Deposit specialists are utilizing social media to request recommendations for high-interest deposits, indicating a proactive approach to asset management among savers [3][4]. - A case study highlights an individual traveling over 1,100 kilometers to secure a 5-year fixed deposit with an interest rate of 3% [3][4]. - Banks are incentivizing these depositors with gifts and cash subsidies to attract them, showcasing a competitive environment among banks [6][7]. Group 2: Bank Strategies and Customer Manager Behavior - Bank customer managers are resorting to personal financial incentives, such as cash rebates and gift vouchers, to attract depositors, reflecting pressure to meet performance targets [6][7]. - The article notes that customer managers from various banks, including local commercial banks and rural banks, are actively promoting their deposit products to potential customers [4][5]. - The reliance on personal incentives to attract deposits raises concerns about the quality of customers acquired through such means [7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Regulatory Environment - Since April, a trend of declining deposit rates has been observed across various types of banks, with significant impacts on 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates [8][9]. - The financial regulatory authority has indicated that banks are under pressure to reduce high-cost liabilities, which aligns with the trend of lowering deposit rates [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that banks should focus on sustainable growth and effective asset-liability management rather than merely expanding deposit volumes [9].

2025.04. 15 本文字数：1614，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 央行近日公布的3月金融数据显示，信贷和社融规模均超出市场预期。 数据显示，今年一季度，人民币贷款总额达到9.78万亿元，其中3月单月新增人民币贷款3.64万亿 元；同期，社会融资规模增量累计为15.18万亿元，3月社融规模增量达到5.89万亿元。 从居民和企业部门的信贷结构来看，存在差异。居民部门的中长期贷款表现较为亮眼，但消费整体仍 待进一步复苏。与此同时，企业部门的短期贷款因季节性等因素出现超预期增长。 面对美国关税政策的严峻外部挑战，业内人士分析认为，未来还需要进一步加大政策力度，以提振居 民消费信心。除了实施短期补贴外，还应着力增加就业机会和居民收入，通过消费来带动经济的内生 循环。 楼市"小阳春"带动居民中长贷回暖 3月，居民信贷需求有所升温，但短期和中长期贷款需求呈现出不同态势。其中，居民中长期信贷需 求处于近5年来相对较好的水平，3月居民中长期信贷增加5047亿元，同比多增531亿元。 市场分析人士认为，3月房地产市场迎来了"小阳春"，整体表现较为突出，尤其是二手房成交情况显 著优于新房，这一现象在一定程 ...