Economic Overview - Dongguan's economy showed stable performance in the first five months of 2025, with industrial production and foreign trade maintaining rapid growth [1][2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Dongguan increased by 5.5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with significant growth in key sectors: electronic information manufacturing up by 9.2%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing up by 9.5%, and chemical manufacturing up by 12.2% [1] - New momentum industries continued to grow rapidly, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value increasing by 7.8% and 9.2% respectively [1] - High-tech product output saw substantial increases, with servers up by 380.9%, integrated circuits by 85.9%, sensors by 80.8%, and complete electronic computers by 42.6% [1] Foreign Trade - Dongguan's total foreign trade import and export volume reached 615.85 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%. Imports were 244.11 billion yuan (up 28.5%) and exports were 371.74 billion yuan (up 11.2%) [1] - In May 2025, foreign trade total volume grew by 10.7% year-on-year, with imports increasing by 14.2% and exports by 8.6% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Dongguan decreased by 16.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with a 4.6% decline when excluding real estate development investments. Infrastructure investment grew by 7.0%, while industrial investment fell by 4.1% and real estate development investment dropped by 43.3% [2] - The proportion of industrial investment in total fixed asset investment rose to 54.4%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of consumer goods in Dongguan reached 186.281 billion yuan from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first four months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasizes the focus on high-end precision manufacturing as a key area for economic growth and competitiveness [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - High-end precision manufacturing is identified as a strategic sector that can drive innovation and job creation in the U.S. economy [1] - The government aims to enhance investment in this sector to strengthen the supply chain and reduce dependency on foreign manufacturing [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The emphasis on high-end precision manufacturing is expected to contribute to the overall economic resilience and technological advancement of the U.S. [1] - By prioritizing this industry, the government seeks to position the U.S. as a leader in advanced manufacturing on a global scale [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that the U.S. will no longer focus on producing low-end consumer goods such as socks and towels, but will instead shift its focus towards high-end precision manufacturing [1] Industry Summary - The U.S. is transitioning away from low-value manufacturing sectors to prioritize high-end precision manufacturing, indicating a strategic shift in the manufacturing landscape [1]

终端需求视角：有色金属板块配置 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 目录 CONTENTS 01 上半年有色板块回顾 03 结论与建议 02 配置策略展望 01 有色贵金属价格走势相似，但不同品种波动幅度差异明显 ◆2025年年初至今，CRB金属走势和综合指数相似，波动率均收窄； ◆有色及贵金属内外价格走势相似，扣除汇率因素后，伦铜和沪铜价格走势相同； ◆有色及贵金属价格波动幅度存在差异，截至6月20日从强到弱的排序是：黄金>白银>锡>铜>铅>铝>镍>锌，其中黄金涨幅28%，锌下跌11.38%。 ...

意大利6月Istat制造业信心指数 87.3，预期87，前值由86.5修正为86.6。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to issue up to 578 million A-shares at a price of 1.73 yuan per share, raising a total of no more than 1 billion yuan to supplement working capital, which constitutes a related party transaction [1][2] Group 1: Company Actions - The company aims to optimize its capital structure and financial status through this issuance, alleviating funding pressure and enhancing its ability to withstand risks [2][3] - The company is also seeking a loan of 100 million yuan from its controlling shareholder, with a term of 2 years and an annual interest rate of 4.75%, which will further support its operational needs [2][3] Group 2: Financial Outlook - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan (2025-2027), committing to distribute at least 30% of the cumulative average distributable profits in cash, reflecting confidence in future development and a focus on minority shareholder rights [4] - The company reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with a net cash outflow reduction of 290 million yuan year-on-year, and an increase in sales gross margin by 2.14 percentage points [6] Group 3: Industry Context - The steel industry is expected to enter a new cycle of transformation, with improved supply-demand dynamics likely to enhance the profitability and valuation of leading steel enterprises [4] - The company has shown growth in production and sales volumes, with a year-on-year increase of 66% and 16% respectively, indicating a positive trend in the overall industry environment [6]

Group 1 - The integration of digital technology and the real economy is crucial for building a modern industrial system, with talent being a fundamental driver of industrial innovation and development [1] - Dongguan, known as the "world's factory," is projected to see a 6.9% year-on-year growth in industrial added value in 2024, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 11.1% and 12.7% respectively [1] - The Songshan Lake Developer Village aims to support the digital transformation of Dongguan's manufacturing industry through collaboration and innovation among developers [2][3] Group 2 - The Songshan Lake Developer Village, established in partnership with Huawei Cloud, serves as a hub for developers to create applications and solutions for local enterprises [2] - The Developer Village has attracted 29 companies, including CSDN and local enterprise Tailin, enhancing its collaborative ecosystem [3] - The village plans to provide comprehensive lifecycle services to at least 150 local enterprises over the next three years [4] Group 3 - Financial support is being provided to developers in the village through various subsidies, including credit loan interest subsidies and patent pledge loan subsidies, to foster a thriving developer ecosystem [5] - The establishment of the Dongguan Songshan Lake Technology Finance Gathering Area aims to enhance the financial ecosystem, offering policy financing products to support enterprise development [6] Group 4 - The Huawei Cloud Songshan Lake Developer Innovation Center is focused on helping developers expand globally by leveraging Huawei's global service capabilities [7] - The company "Today Talent," established in the Developer Village, has successfully implemented its AI digital assistants in Shenzhen, covering various government departments [7][8] - "Today Talent" is preparing to expand its services to overseas markets, focusing on customer service and digital product introductions [8]

Group 1 - The 20th China International Small and Medium Enterprises Expo (SME Expo) will be held from June 27 to 30 at the Guangzhou Import and Export Fair Complex, covering an area of approximately 80,000 square meters with over 3,400 exhibition booths [3][4] - The expo will feature nearly 60 high-participation supporting activities tailored to the theme of the exhibition and the needs of participating enterprises, including digital transformation initiatives and APEC SME industry cluster discussions [2][3] - The professional exhibition area exceeds 30,000 square meters, showcasing four specialized exhibitions: Industrial Design, Digital Transformation in Manufacturing, Smart Wearables and Modern Watches, and Time-honored Brands, with a total of 1,250 booths [3][4] Group 2 - The Industrial Design exhibition will focus on the theme "Bay Area Intelligent Manufacturing," featuring 150 award-winning international design works across 178 booths in a 2,500 square meter area [3] - The Digital Transformation in Manufacturing exhibition is highlighted by the presence of 55 companies, including the innovative "MR+AI Glasses Intelligent Body" from Zhongke Cloud Creation, which integrates AI and mixed reality technologies [3] - The exhibition will also include international brands from Switzerland and Japan in the Smart Wearables and Modern Watches section, while the Time-honored Brands exhibition will transform into an "International Cultural Market" showcasing products from various countries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to promote the construction of smart factories in Heilongjiang Province, establishing a tiered cultivation system to enhance the digital transformation and intelligent upgrade of the manufacturing industry [1][3]. Group 1: Implementation Goals - The overall goal is to widely promote basic-level smart factories, scale up advanced-level smart factories, and cultivate leading smart factories with global influence [1]. - The plan encourages manufacturing enterprises to develop improvement plans based on smart manufacturing maturity assessment results and to upgrade production processes accordingly [1][2]. Group 2: Smart Factory Levels - The plan outlines a tiered approach: basic-level, advanced-level, excellent-level, and leading-level smart factories, with specific criteria for each level [3]. - Advanced-level smart factories are expected to integrate production and management processes, while excellent-level factories should promote smart manufacturing solutions and standards [2][3]. - Leading-level smart factories are encouraged to apply new technologies and lead innovations in manufacturing models and organizational structures [2]. Group 3: Management and Evaluation - The plan establishes a collaborative system among provincial, municipal, and county levels to manage the smart factory cultivation process [3]. - Dynamic management of the lists for basic and advanced-level factories will be implemented, with annual evaluations and a three-year term for qualification [4].

Core Insights - Shanghai's Qingpu District has become a national model for the transformation and development of the express delivery industry, hosting over 400 logistics companies and forming a trillion-yuan express logistics industry cluster [1] - In 2024, China's express delivery volume is projected to reach 1.745 billion packages, maintaining its position as the world's largest market for 11 consecutive years, with express delivery revenue expected to hit 1.4 trillion yuan [1] - Qingpu's express delivery business volume reached 2.05 billion packages in 2024, highlighting its significant contribution to the logistics sector [1] Group 1: Location and Infrastructure - Qingpu's strategic location near the Shanghai Hongqiao International Transportation Hub and major highways (G2, G15, G50) makes it an attractive site for logistics companies, reducing transportation costs [3][4] - The area has evolved from a simple logistics hub to a diverse supply chain ecosystem, benefiting from early investments by major express companies like YTO and ZTO [1][3] Group 2: Government Support and Policy - Qingpu's government adopts a "step back" approach, allowing market forces to drive growth while providing necessary support, such as infrastructure improvements and temporary parking solutions for logistics vehicles [5][6] - The establishment of a logistics task force in 2025 aims to further enhance the development of the logistics industry by learning from enterprises and aligning with market demands [4][5] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Companies in Qingpu are increasingly adopting automation and digitalization, with YTO's automated sorting lines and real-time management systems significantly improving operational efficiency [7][9] - The integration of drones and autonomous vehicles is transforming last-mile delivery, with ZTO reporting a 50% increase in delivery efficiency and a one-third reduction in operational costs through the use of drone and vehicle combinations [8][9] Group 4: Industry Evolution and Future Directions - The logistics sector in Qingpu is transitioning from a labor-intensive model to a high-tech industry, with over 100 logistics companies implementing automated sorting lines and digital management systems [9][10] - Qingpu's government is encouraging logistics companies to explore higher value-added services, such as cold chain and cross-border logistics, to enhance operational capabilities and competitiveness [12][13] Group 5: Ecosystem Development - The logistics ecosystem in Qingpu is diversifying, with companies like AnDe ZhiLian and Shanghai AnNeng JuChuang creating integrated supply chain solutions that span from raw materials to end consumers [13][14] - The Shanghai West Suburb International Agricultural Products Trading Center aims to become a global platform for high-quality food transactions, enhancing the value of logistics by connecting producers and consumers [14][15]