洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价 值、有意思的延伸阅读。 作者：洞见Moon 鱼乘于水，草木乘于时。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听 洞见主播云湾朗读音频 看过一张漫画。 再厉害的人，一味埋头蛮干，累死累活也只能换来基本的温饱。 真正会赚钱的人，会把精力用在思考上，寻找一切可利用的资源。 或是在人群中借力，或是向高人借智，甚至向时代借势。 金融学家唐涯在《钱从哪里来》中说： 如果再雇一些壮士随行，这样一趟下来，就赚不了多少钱了。 后来，范蠡打听到一个叫姜子盾的人，在做布匹生意，需要把布从北方运往南方。 借力 这个姜子盾是北方巨商，经营多年，有一条安全的商路。 范蠡就去找姜子盾，表示自己可以免费帮他把布匹运到南方。 《上金谷文集》中记载了一个商圣范蠡卖马的故事。 春秋时期，北方马便宜，南方马贵。 范蠡打算去北方买马，运回吴越来卖。 但是路途遥远，马群目标太大，在路上容易遭遇盗贼。 " 财富只是结果，它的背后其实是一连串关于人和资金的正确决策。 " 懂得以外界之力加持自己，你会以最小的代价，收获丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - France is urging China to lift its countermeasures against French cognac imports, but China appears to link this issue to the European Union's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Cognac to France - In 2023, France's cognac export value reached €4.2 billion, with nearly one-third of this market coming from China [3]. - High-end cognac brands, particularly XO, are considered valuable assets among wealthy consumers in China, indicating the significance of this market for French producers [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Responses - The European Commission is set to finalize tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with potential rates soaring up to 48% [3]. - France's Agriculture Minister, Marc Fesneau, has expressed urgency for China to reconsider its stance, highlighting the tension in trade relations [3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The trade conflict could have severe repercussions for French agriculture, as the countermeasures may extend beyond cognac to include other vital sectors such as aircraft, luxury goods, and dairy products [3][5]. - The competitive landscape for cognac in China is intensifying, with domestic wines from regions like Ningxia and international competitors from Chile and Australia posing significant threats [5]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - French President Macron's previous emphasis on European strategic autonomy contrasts sharply with the current situation, where France seems to be reacting to U.S. influences rather than asserting its own interests [5]. - The ongoing trade war is characterized as mutually damaging, with reports of layoffs in French vineyards as a direct consequence of the trade tensions [5].

Group 1 - South Korea is actively seeking to extend the 90-day tariff suspension period originally set to expire on July 9, due to the current negotiation progress not being sufficient to meet the deadline [1] - The recent high-level trade talks between South Korea and the U.S. marked the third round of technical negotiations since the agreement to formulate a tariff reduction plan by July 9 was reached in late April [1] - The South Korean official indicated that some countries may reach agreements before July 8, while others may require extensions, and some may continue negotiations under the existing tariff framework [1] Group 2 - The U.S. focused on non-tariff barriers during the recent talks, shifting attention from nearly zero tariffs on U.S. imports to technical trade barriers and regulatory standards [2] - Discussions regarding foreign exchange rate policies and the sharing of defense costs for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are being conducted through separate channels [2] - The ongoing tariff negotiations reflect a deeper strategic competition between South Korea and the U.S., with South Korea's key industries like automotive and steel urgently needing tariff relief, while the U.S. aims to reshape the Asia-Pacific trade landscape through new trade rules [2]

Macroeconomic Overview - Last Friday, spot gold experienced a significant decline of 2%, reaching a nearly one-month low, with a weekly drop of 2.8%, marking two consecutive weeks of losses [1] - On Monday, gold prices showed resilience by rebounding after hitting a low, indicating a market struggle between risk aversion and risk appetite [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a key factor influencing market sentiment [1] - The U.S.-China rare earth trade agreement and the G7 tax agreement have boosted global stock markets, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] - Economic data, including a decline in U.S. consumer spending due to tariff policies, has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 92.5% probability for a cut in September [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Iran and Israeli strikes in Syria, have heightened risk aversion, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 97.479 and a low of 96.966, closing at 97.228 [2] - The market experienced a slight rebound in the morning but faced pressure later, ultimately closing with a bearish candlestick [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance around the 99.40 area, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - Key support levels to watch include the 96.50 area, which is the lower edge of a downward channel [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices overall declined, with a high of 3327.78 and a low of 3255.68, closing at 3274.43 [4] - The market tested weekly support levels, resulting in a bearish weekly close [5] - The focus for short-term trading is on the 3300 level, which is critical for determining future price movements [7] Euro/USD - Last Friday, the Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend, with a low of 1.1680 and a high of 1.1753, closing at 1.1719 [6] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, supported by the 1.0850 level on the monthly chart [6] - Key resistance levels to monitor include 1.1710, which is crucial for short-term trading strategies [6] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to watch include the European Central Bank forum, UK GDP, Swiss KOF economic leading indicators, and U.S. Chicago PMI [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique strategic stability of the A-share market in contrast to other global markets, highlighting the current behavior of the RMB and the actions of the central bank in managing capital flows [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Market Dynamics - The article references the "blood bag" theory in financial games, illustrating how the A-share market could be exploited by international capital if not managed properly, especially in the context of high U.S. interest rates [3]. - The central bank's strategy is described as textbook-level, suggesting that it will act when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, attracting global capital to the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors, noting that over 3,000 stocks are currently in an "active zone," indicating a positive market cycle where active institutions attract more observers [10]. - The use of quantitative data to decode institutional actions is highlighted, with specific reference to "orange K-lines" indicating institutional inventory and "magenta K-lines" signaling strong buying activity [7][9]. Group 3: Market Signals and Trends - The article discusses the significance of various K-line signals, such as "strong return" and "strong outflow," which provide insights into market movements and institutional strategies [9]. - The presence of "blue K-lines" suggests that institutions are engaging in market adjustments rather than exiting positions, indicating a strategic approach to market fluctuations [7][9].

Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a continuous downturn in fundamentals, with sales volume declining further in May compared to April. The year-on-year price decline for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities has narrowed, but the month-on-month decline has expanded [1][10] - In June, the cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities was 42.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year increases of 2%, 5%, 15%, and 27% respectively [1][10] - The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 18 cities also saw a slight year-on-year decline, with a cumulative total of 410,000 units sold in June, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [1][16] Price Trends - As of June 2025, the month-on-month price changes for second-hand homes were -1.1% for first-tier cities, -1.2% for strong second-tier cities, -1.3% for weak second-tier cities, and -0.8% for third-tier cities. The price decline in first-tier cities has accelerated to levels comparable to August of the previous year [2][23] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.0 percentage points in the current month. Since the last strategy report, the sector has risen by 1.2%, ranking 19th among 31 industries. The dynamic PE ratio for the sector is projected to be 62.6 times for 2025 [2][28] Investment Strategy - The report indicates that the real estate sector's fundamentals remain weak, with the market sentiment returning to levels seen in August of the previous year. Given the low market sentiment, macroeconomic pressures, and expectations of a US dollar interest rate cut, there is potential for policy support, creating a window for speculation in real estate stocks. Recommended stocks for July include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, China Jinmao, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [2][34]

2025年，美国对华关税政策经历戏剧性演变，从年初的"基准关税+差异化税率 " 双轨制（2月），到4 月全面升级至125%的 " 对等关税 " ，再到5月选择性豁免半导体等涉及6440亿美元商品，政策反复背 后折射出美国 " 极限施压 " 战略与国内政治经济的深层矛盾。中美经贸关系正经历关键转折期，政策 调整与市场博弈深刻影响全球经济格局。 在此背景下，本次公开课将探讨： 李楠教授将结合最新数据与案例，解析中美博弈下的经济趋势与金融防御体系构建。 时间：7月6日（周日）下午 13:30 地址：淮海西路211号上海交通大学上海高级金融学院 预 约 席 位 ↓↓↓ 李楠 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副教授 15：00-15：40 高金MBA培养体系解析 15：40-16：00 Q&A 李楠 教授 关税博弈的底层逻辑：美国通胀、债务与选举政治如何驱动政策反复？中国如何通过反制与内循环 增强韧性？ 产业突围路径：半导体、新能源等关键领域的技术封锁与转口贸易可行性分析。 投资策略调整：A股波动中的长期价值锚点，以及企业如何利用政策窗口优化全球布局。 现任上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副教授，兼任上海交通大学证券金融研究所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including excessive trading positions, changes in market sentiment, and external geopolitical events [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The long-to-short ratio of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange has surged to a historical high of 3.7:1, indicating a crowded long position among traders [1]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, saw a reduction of 8.7 tons in holdings in a single day, reflecting a shift in institutional sentiment towards bearish positions [1]. - A significant drop in the spot price of gold occurred on June 27, with prices plummeting to $3,271 per ounce, marking a decline of over $50 in one day [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many retail investors, despite the market downturn, continue to express optimism on social media, with a notable example being a young investor who believed gold had reached its absolute bottom [1][9]. - Reports indicate that a substantial number of young investors (62%) still hold the belief that investing in gold is a guaranteed profit, contrasting sharply with professional forecasts [5]. Group 3: External Influences - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and a shift of funds into U.S. equities [7]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, particularly the indication of delaying interest rate cuts, has strengthened the dollar and further pressured gold prices [7]. Group 4: Risk Factors - The market has seen a rise in leveraged trading, with reports indicating that 43% of users under 25 are engaging in high-leverage strategies, which can lead to significant losses [7]. - The World Gold Council reported a net outflow from global gold ETFs for the first time in seven months, with 19 tons sold and a market value loss of $374 billion [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of procrastination in children, particularly adolescents, and explores its underlying causes and potential solutions from psychological and neurological perspectives [4][5][6]. Group 1: Types of Procrastination - Procrastination can manifest in three main forms: preparation procrastination, where children engage in activities like organizing their study space instead of doing homework; substitution procrastination, where they distract themselves with unrelated tasks; and distraction procrastination, where they are easily sidetracked by digital devices [1][2][3]. Group 2: Neurological Development - The article highlights that the development of the prefrontal cortex, responsible for rational decision-making, lags behind the limbic system, which governs immediate gratification, making it harder for adolescents to resist distractions and manage their time effectively [4]. Group 3: Psychological Mechanisms - Procrastination in children can be a form of passive aggression against perceived over-control by parents, where they assert their autonomy through delaying tasks [6]. - Emotional needs, such as the desire for parental attention, can also drive procrastination, as children may delay work to prolong time spent with parents [7]. - Perfectionism can lead to procrastination, as children may fear making mistakes and thus avoid starting tasks altogether [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Parents - Parents are advised to provide children with limited choices to foster a sense of autonomy, rather than imposing strict commands [6]. - It is suggested that parents adjust their schedules to spend quality time with their children, promoting emotional connections and reducing procrastination [7]. - Encouraging a growth mindset by accepting imperfections and celebrating progress rather than perfection can help alleviate the pressures that lead to procrastination [8].

Core Viewpoint - The copper futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of factors, including low processing fees, seasonal demand decline, and geopolitical influences, which are creating structural contradictions in supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of June 27, 2025, the main copper futures contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, with a weekly price change of 2.23% [1] - The trading range for the week was between 78,480 yuan/ton and 80,060 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest by 48,823 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Inventory Levels - As of June 26, 2025, total copper inventory in Shanghai was 15,560 tons, an increase of 1,527 tons from the previous day, while inventories in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang also saw increases, leading to a total inventory of 23,696 tons, up by 2,226 tons [2] Industry Challenges - Executives in the global metals industry are facing rising capital expenditures due to inflation and infrastructure development, which are increasing the costs of new copper mines [2] - The low processing fees for copper mines are beginning to affect the smelting sector, with production cuts spreading from smaller smelters to larger enterprises, although significant large-scale reductions have not yet occurred [3] Demand and Pricing Outlook - The copper market is currently constrained by a combination of tight supply from the mining sector and a seasonal decline in demand, leading to cautious purchasing sentiment among downstream consumers [3] - Despite low inventory levels and easing geopolitical tensions providing some support, the overall acceptance of higher prices by downstream consumers remains limited [3] - Recent price increases in copper have led to a widening premium in the spot market, but attention is needed on the downstream demand's ability to sustain these higher prices [3]