美国财长贝森特：国内外对美国国债的需求都非常强劲。 ...

Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - JPMorgan expects the U.S. employment population to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, potentially reigniting concerns about economic growth [1] - Poor non-farm payroll data could pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-cutting timeline, as inflation remains distant from targets, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Market Sentiment - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates only 12% of respondents believe the U.S. fiscal deficit will significantly impact the market next year, suggesting that most market participants do not view the fiscal deficit as a major short-term concern [1] - Over time, more investors expect the fiscal deficit to have a significant market impact, with only 8% believing it will have no effect during this period [1] Group 3: Stablecoin and Treasury Demand - Citigroup argues that the growth of stablecoins will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries in the short term, as new stablecoins may come from existing bank deposits or money market funds, leading to no net increase in Treasury demand [2] - The stablecoin market is projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with potential incremental Treasury demand from cash reallocation and foreign deposits [2] Group 4: UK and Eurozone Economic Indicators - XTB analysts note increased volatility in UK government bond yields since 2022, attributed to high government debt levels, with a need for public spending to return to pre-pandemic levels to stabilize the bond market [3] - Eurozone's June services PMI and composite PMI data indicate the longest low-growth phase in 27 years, with new orders contracting for 13 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic and external demand [3] Group 5: U.S. Treasury Supply and Economic Outlook - UBS Global Wealth Management reports that the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries should remain manageable, despite concerns over increased issuance to finance federal debt [4] - Analysts express caution regarding potential rate cuts in the U.S., despite pressure from President Trump and disappointing employment data, suggesting that rate cuts may not effectively address current economic issues [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the UK's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 12 basis points, marking the largest intraday drop since April [1] Group 2 - The decline in yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment, potentially reflecting concerns over economic conditions or changes in monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the UK's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 12 basis points, marking the largest intraday drop since April [1] Group 2 - The decline in yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment, potentially reflecting concerns over economic conditions or changes in monetary policy [1] - This significant drop in yield could influence borrowing costs and investment strategies within the financial markets [1] - The movement in bond yields is often seen as a barometer for economic outlook and can impact various sectors, including real estate and consumer spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government bonds have seen an increase in yield, with the 30-year bond yield dropping by 10 basis points to 5.32% [1] Group 1 - The 30-year UK government bond yield has decreased, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term securities [1]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 美国债务上限扩张在即，就业数据显示美国降息预期增加，尽管关税风险、地 缘局势风险减少，但中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金 战略配置。【765-790】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 基本金属在未来经济政策刺激下有支撑。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间， 盘面关注 8700 附近表现，白银的品种特性弹性较大，受基本金属和黄金价格情 绪影响较大，操作上做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 海外美元继续走弱，国内反内卷供给侧改革 3.0 猜想，秘鲁铜矿干扰，建议前期铜 多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风险，中长期我们对铜依旧 | | | | 看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，82000】 宏观和板块情绪积极，锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅累库，国内消费淡 | 锌 震荡 季，需求走弱，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关 注区间【22000，22600】 碳酸锂 反弹 宏观政策预期炒作，情绪交易为主。市场 ...

2025年07月03日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.512 102.488 | 102.642 102.632 | 106.250 106.205 | 106.345 106.295 | 109.130 109.005 | 109.210 109.040 | 121.18 120.74 | 121.04 120.6 | | | 涨跌 | 0.024 | 0.010 | 0.045 | 0.050 | 0.125 | 0.170 | 0.440 | 0.44 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，XTB研究主管Kathleen Brooks在一份报告中说，由于债务水平高企，英国政府债券 市场可能面临更大的波动性。一个主题正在出现：自2022年以来，我们看到英国国债收益率更频繁地飙 升，这是自疫情以来英国债券市场的一个特征。这种波动可能会持续下去，直到债务水平下降，公共部 门支出率恢复到疫情前的水平。 在债务水平下降之前，英国国债市场可能会持续波动 ...

美国国债需求短期内不会因稳定币增长而大幅提升？ 据追风交易台信息，花旗在6月20日的报告中表示，美元稳定币的崛起更多是美元储备地位的反映，而非推动因素。美国国债需 求短期内不会因稳定币增长而大幅提升，非美稳定币的相对增长将成为去美元化趋势的重要观察指标。 稳定币增长难以实质性推动美债需求 GENIUS稳定币法案已在参议院通过，众议院的STABLE法案也已出委员会。花旗认为这是为美国数字资产提供监管明确性的重 要步骤，对整个行业构成利好。立法通过是数字资产监管框架完善的关键里程碑，有助于加速稳定币的广泛应用。 市场普遍关注稳定币是否将成为美国国债需求的新增长点（提升美元地位）。 花旗分析认为，该问题的答案是有条件的 "既是又不是"。背后的关键在于资金来源：如果新发稳定币来自现有银行存款或货币 市场基金的转移，实际上不会产生净新增美债需求。 目前泰达币（Tether）和 Circle 主要持有美国国债，并通过回购交易来支撑资产。 花旗认为，短期内在稳定币普及度提升之前，其增长不会显著增加美国国债需求。当前稳定币的增长可能会分流银行存款（降 低银行对美国国债的需求）和 / 或货币市场基金（直接减少美国国债需求）。如 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury futures contract closed down by 0.02% [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures contract remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 2-year Treasury futures contract also rose by 0.01% [1]