光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价重心大幅回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.63 美元至 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 60.42 美元/桶，跌幅 2.63%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.61 美元 至 64.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.44%。SC2506 以 478.0 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.1 元/桶，跌幅为 2.07%。API 数据显示，截至 4 月 25 日当周， | | | | 美国 API 原油库存增加 380 万桶，库欣原油库存增加 67.4 万桶。 | | | | 310 250 成品油汽油库存减少 万桶、馏分油库存减少 万桶。分析 | | | 原油 | 师预测美国原油库存再增 50 万桶，这将是连续第五周库存攀升。 | 震荡 | | | 相较去年同期 730 万桶的增幅虽有所收窄，但仍高于 2020-2024 | | | | 320 万桶。OPEC+消息人士透露，多个成员国拟在 6 年同期均值 | | | | 月再度提议加速增产。哈萨克斯坦一季 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell, closing down 0.69% at 98.93, while US Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.211%, a three-week low [1] - Spot gold reversed its earlier decline, rising 0.75% to close at $3344.08 per ounce, supported by buying interest after a drop of 1.8% [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil futures fell 2.03% to $61.89 per barrel, marking a near two-week low, amid uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production plans and concerns over the organization's unity [3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a narrow trading range due to the lack of significant positive or negative news, with support confirmed around the $55 level and resistance near $65 [5] - The market sentiment indicates a preference for a cautious approach in trading, focusing on trend analysis and strategic entry points rather than emotional trading [5]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 原油：或继续震荡下行，二次探底 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI6 月原油期货收跌 1.63 美元/桶，跌幅 2.62%，报 60.42 美元/桶；布伦特 6 月原油期货收 跌 1.61 美元/桶，跌幅 2.44%，报 64.25 美元/桶；SC2506 原油期货收跌 10.10 元/桶，跌幅 2.07%， 报 478.00 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 1. 德国 5 月 Gfk 消费者信心指数 -20.6，预期-26，前值由-24.5 修正为-24.3。 2. 欧元区 4 月工业景气指数 -11.2，预期-10.1，前值由-10.6 修正为-10.7。 3. 欧元区 4 月经济景气指数 93.6，预期 94.5，前值由 95.2 修正为 95。 4. 俄乌冲突：俄称布良斯克州遭乌无人机袭击，致 1 死 1 伤。普京宣布卫国战争胜利庆典期间停 火 72 小时。乌克兰外交部长：乌克兰提议全面停火至少 30 天。乌克兰空军表示，俄罗斯在夜 间和白 ...

Core Viewpoint - Phoenix Shipping reported a significant increase in cargo volume and turnover for 2024, but faced substantial losses due to declining profit margins and increased competition in the market [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a cargo volume of 32.26 million tons, an increase of 2.01 million tons or 6.64% year-on-year [1] - The cargo turnover reached 46.15 billion ton-kilometers, up by 4.34 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting a growth of 10.37% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -82.7 million yuan, indicating an expanded loss [1] Business Operations - Phoenix Shipping's main operations include dry bulk shipping and port logistics services, with a focus on self-operated, time-chartered, and voyage-chartered shipping models [1] - The company has a self-owned capacity of nearly 400,000 tons, which is significantly lower compared to leading shipping companies [1] Market Challenges - The company has experienced a decline in gross profit margins due to insufficient market demand, intensified industry competition, and provisions for asset impairment [1][2] - The main business revenue for 2024 was 799 million yuan, with an overall gross margin turning negative for the first time, decreasing by 3.41% year-on-year [2] - Coastal transportation faced severe challenges, with gross margins dropping to -7.43%, a reduction of 8.49% year-on-year, significantly impacting overall performance [2] Strategic Initiatives - In response to the declining margins, the company has initiated a project to convert domestic vessels for international operations, aiming to improve asset structure and profitability [2] - A new foreign trade vessel was added to the fleet, which helped the ocean transportation segment achieve a gross margin of 4.71%, indicating a relatively stable performance [2]

以Natasha Kaneva为首的分析师在一份报告中表示，在即将于5月5日召开的会议上，"沙特阿拉伯及其 他"主要OPEC+国家加快既定增产计划的可能性上升，可能宣布在6月份每日额外增加40万桶产量。"由 于非OPEC国家供应增长以及部分联盟成员国的产能扩张，OPEC+将继续面临挑战……这些扩张的相当 大一部分资本支出是由大型国际石油公司出资。" ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategic Focus - The company focuses on "water-fertilizer-pesticide coupling + digital technology" to enhance service efficiency and customer satisfaction, aiming for a comprehensive solution to reduce costs and increase production [2][3] - The company has two main business segments: agrochemical additives and special fertilizers, and modern agriculture, aligning with the green and efficient development of agriculture [4][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 305 million CNY, a decrease of 3.44% year-on-year, and a net profit of 23.12 million CNY, down 11.75% [6][7] - For the year 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.235 billion CNY, an increase of 17.79% year-on-year, with agrochemical additives generating 902.47 million CNY (up 9.35%) and modern agriculture contributing 206.61 million CNY (up 169.05%) [7][8] Group 3: Research and Development - The company is investing in the development of energy-saving and carbon-neutral additives, successfully launching new products such as cadmium and arsenic removal agents [3][4] - The focus on modern agriculture includes biotechnological advancements and digital agriculture, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem for sustainable agricultural practices [4][9] Group 4: Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to deepen its market presence in Southeast Asia, the former CIS region, and Africa, leveraging its core technology advantages in agrochemical additives and digital agriculture [5][10] - The company is pursuing an external growth strategy through mergers and acquisitions, targeting firms with advanced R&D capabilities and production facilities [8][10] Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the recent decline in Q1 performance is a short-term fluctuation, expecting gradual improvement as strategic adjustments take effect [6][7] - The company emphasizes its commitment to high-quality development and enhancing shareholder returns through market expansion and technological innovation [11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decrease in copper production and sales in Q1 2025, primarily due to a large maintenance project in Indonesia, while the average realized price for copper has increased [1][2] - The report highlights a significant drop in gold production and sales, attributed to shipping schedule issues related to copper concentrate export permits [2][3] - The financial performance shows a decrease in sales revenue and net income year-on-year, but a quarter-on-quarter increase in net income attributable to common stockholders [6] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Q1 2025 copper production was 868 million pounds (39.37 thousand tons), a year-on-year decrease of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.62% [1] - Q1 2025 copper sales were 872 million pounds (39.55 thousand tons), down 21.3% year-on-year and 12.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q1 2025 gold production was 287 thousand ounces (8.93 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 47.72% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.56% [2][3] - Q1 2025 molybdenum production was 23 million pounds (10.43 thousand tons), a year-on-year increase of 27.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.55% [3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 sales revenue was $5.728 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.38% [6] - Q1 2025 net income attributable to common stock was $352 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25.58% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.47% [6][24] - Q1 2025 operating cash flow totaled $1.058 billion, with capital expenditures of $1.172 billion [6][24] Cost Structure - Q1 2025 unit net cash cost for copper was $2.07 per pound, a year-on-year increase of 37.09% [2] - Q1 2025 average realized price for copper was $4.44 per pound, a year-on-year increase of 12.69% [1][21] - Q1 2025 average realized price for gold was $3,072 per ounce, a year-on-year increase of 43.22% [3][21] Future Outlook - The company expects an increase in copper and gold sales in the remaining quarters of 2025, with projected annual sales of approximately 4 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold [12] - The report outlines various expansion projects in the U.S., South America, and Indonesia aimed at increasing production capacity and efficiency [15][16][17][18]

能源日报 | 2025-04-29 关注欧佩克6月增产节奏 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌97美分，收于每桶62.05美元，跌幅为1.54%；6月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.01美元，收于每桶65.86美元，跌幅为1.51%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.15%，报489元/桶。 2、多家炼油商表示，全球最大石油出口国沙特或小幅上调6月对亚洲客户的石油售价（OSP），为三个月以来首次， 追随本月指标油价的上升趋势。阿拉伯轻质原油6月官方售价或较前月上调10-30美分，至每桶1.30-1.50美元。沙特 将5月石油售价下调至近四年最低，此前OPEC+同意推进石油增产计划。市场参与者密切关注5月5日OPEC+会议结 果，以便制定6月产量计划。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、法巴银行表示，围绕欧佩克+ 6月份增产计划的不确定性，以及对该组织团结程度的担忧日益加剧，给石油市场 带来了重大下行风险。在有报道称哈萨克斯坦将把国家利益置于遵守生产配额之上之后，法巴银行预计哈萨克斯 坦不会通过减产来弥补产量过剩。这也可能导致6月份欧佩克+的供应大幅增加，从而导致近期市场疲软。这是市 ...

承蒙大家厚爱，这次我也获得了2025年嵩岳之巅你卓越分析师奖项，希望接下来与大家继续携手前行，创造更为辉煌的佳绩！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"下一个百日行动与商品涨价"，"印巴冲突与OPEC+增产"，"金价定价权与重要会议"，"重要表态与南下资金"四个方面解读了基 本面的一些信息，并结合百日维新，商品涨价，印巴，金银油，保险入局，增量政策，稳就业，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局思路。 点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 2025年郑州理财博览会顺利落幕，感谢敦兰财经的邀请，这次会场见到了许多老师和老朋友，希望这次主持的圆桌论坛给大家带去一些启发和思考。 当然，在如今的白宫赢学叙事逻辑中，也许又是另外一番景象。 上周一，由于特朗普对鲍威尔的炮轰损害了投资者对美国资产的信心，美元指数暴跌至2022年3月以来的最低水平；但随着特朗普表达了对谈判的乐观情 绪，而且软化了对鲍威尔的态度，美元开始回升，上周终于出现了五周来首度收涨，收于99.61。 美国总统特朗普第二个任期执政将满百日。 当地时间4月27日，美国广播公司、《华盛顿邮报》以及益普索集团联合进行的一项最新民意调查结果显示，特朗普的执政百日支持率 ...

摘 要： 宏观因素扰动、棕榈油逢高沽空交易为佳 供需关系： 印度植物油进口关税或将改革，考虑提高精炼品种的 进口关税以支持国内精炼产能。豆棕现货价差倒挂缓慢修 复，下游维持刚需采购，基差仍呈弱下行，交投氛围欠佳。 增产季到来，国内 5 月到港增幅较大，近月价格承压，操 作建议逢高空为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：棕榈油期现货价格（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 2. 供应情况分析 SPPOMA 最新数据显示，2025 年 4 月 1-15 日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产增3.34%， ...