Core Viewpoint - The introduction of insurance products with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.5% reflects a historical low, driven by a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking guaranteed rates to market rates, indicating a significant shift in the insurance landscape [1][2]. Liability Side Transformation - Some insurance companies have launched participating insurance products with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.5%, which is below the regulatory upper limit, leading to potential price increases or reduced returns for consumers [2]. - The decline in guaranteed interest rates presents both opportunities and challenges for insurance companies, allowing them to reduce new policy liability costs while also risking lower investment returns and customer dissatisfaction [2][3]. - Insurance companies are actively transforming their liability side by promoting floating return products and enhancing the overall value of policies through improved services and expanded coverage [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The insurance industry is increasingly focusing on equity investments to adapt to the new interest rate environment, with regulatory support encouraging higher equity asset allocations [4][5]. - Insurance companies are diversifying their investment strategies, emphasizing long-term stable returns through increased allocations in equities and high-dividend assets, while also exploring new investment opportunities in sectors like renewable energy and AI [5][6]. - The proportion of bonds in life insurance companies' portfolios has surpassed 51%, marking a historical high, while equity investments are becoming a key driver for enhancing returns [5]. Balancing "Three Differences" - The industry is urged to maintain a balance among mortality, expense, and interest differences to ensure sustainable development amid changing interest rates [7][8]. - Regulatory support is deemed crucial for minimizing short-term impacts from accounting standards and solvency rules, while also encouraging innovation and risk management [7][8]. - Insurance companies are advised to enhance operational efficiency, control costs, and strengthen risk management to support the balance of the "three differences" [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government prioritizes the expansion of icebreakers and ice-class vessels along specific shipping routes to enhance maritime border security and ensure balanced development of the shipping industry [1] Industry Summary - The focus is on increasing the fleet of multipurpose nuclear-powered icebreakers and ice-class vessels necessary for year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic transport corridor [1]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 伊美底线再确认；美国关税谈判冲刺 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：伊朗和以色列宣布停火；北约峰会；美国贸易谈判多方进展。 未来一周：美国贸易谈判；地缘冲突。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： ❑ 风险提示：美国政策变化超预期；国际关系变化超预期。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 1）伊朗和以色列宣布停火。伊美双方底线再确认，即对于伊朗，最终顾虑 可能是美国的全面卷入将威胁伊朗自身政权的生存；对于美国，特朗普 的最终顾虑可能是美军重新陷入中东战争的泥潭，这对于过去十多年来 寻求战略重心转移的美国将是一个倒退。底线思维推动短期缓和，但停 火仍脆弱。若接下来伊美无法达成协议，不排除以色列恢复军事行动的 风险；或更激化的情况，即伊朗加快铀浓缩进程，则中长期看中东冲突 将升级至全新阶段。 2）北约峰会提高国防开支 GDP 占比至 5%。 3）美国关税谈判多方进展。中美双方进一步确认了此前会谈框架细节；美 国与日本、韩国等进行新一轮贸易谈判；特朗普宣布停止与加拿大所有 贸易谈判。 ❑ 未来一 ...

Group 1 - Cai Lan passed away on June 25, 2023, in Hong Kong, with no ceremonies held as per his wishes [2] - Cai Lan was a co-founder and spiritual leader of the "Cai Lan Pho" and "Cai Lan Dim Sum" brands, emphasizing the importance of quality in food preparation [2] - Cai Lan's philosophy included the belief in spending time on beautiful things, setting a standard for lifestyle aesthetics in business [2] Group 2 - The 2025 New Wealth 500 list was released, with ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming topping the list with a valuation of 481.57 billion yuan [4] - The wealth of Nongfu Spring founder Zhong Shanshan decreased by nearly 100 billion yuan, placing him second with a valuation of 360 billion yuan [4] - Tencent's Ma Huateng ranked third nationally with a valuation of 306.7 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 45% from the previous year [4][5] Group 3 - Vipshop's Vice President Feng Jialu is under investigation for personal economic issues, with the company maintaining normal business operations [6] - The company has a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption, and Feng has been with Vipshop since 2013 [6] Group 4 - Dong Fang is set to be appointed as the president of Zhuhai Wealth Management, with prior experience as the deputy general manager of the company [6] - Zhuhai Wealth Management currently manages 2.47 trillion yuan in products, leading among 31 bank wealth management subsidiaries [6]

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：需求淡季，估值偏低，短期不追空 PX 供应继续收缩，PX单边反弹。上周的周报中，由于对中东地缘冲突结束的迅速程度才出现误判，单边价格PX跟随原油价格大幅回落，同时月差 同步走弱。多PX空SC。就供需层面而言，PX7月份继续维持紧平衡的去库格局，其中下周浙石化、福海创、天津石化均有检修可能，海外韩国 装置这存在提负荷计划，总体亚洲开工率降进一步下降。需求方面，PTA装置下周供应稳中有升，东营威联计划检修、恒力大连重启，逸盛新 材料计划提负荷，整体负荷回升1-2%。PX整体格局偏紧。另外原油价格回落速度较为可观，但成品油消费旺季叠加低库存，近端下探空间有 限，因此单边价格PX预计偏强，月差仍以正套为主。 PTA 成本有支撑，但是月差有压力，单边震荡略偏强。多PTA空MEG止盈。 7月份聚酯短纤长丝工厂预计 ...

Core Insights - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in international expansion and explore collaborative transformation paths in the context of global industrial chain restructuring [1] Group 1: Market Insights - The Middle East is identified as a popular region for Chinese enterprises to expand, characterized by significant market diversity and varying economic fundamentals across countries [2] - For instance, Turkey's annual deposit interest rate is around 50%, reflecting substantial currency depreciation over the past three years [2] - The presence of nearly 300,000 Chinese individuals in Dubai compared to only about 1,500 Chinese enterprises in Turkey indicates differing levels of market opportunity [2] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Companies are encouraged to shift their perspective on "going global" from merely exporting products to positioning themselves as global companies, with China being just one part of the global market [2] - Emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa should be included in the strategic landscape for global expansion [2] Group 3: Operational Considerations - It is normal for companies to not turn a profit in the first year of international expansion due to the need for localization and adaptation to unfamiliar markets [2] - Companies should prepare for a potential 20% increase in operational costs in the first year, even in culturally similar regions like Southeast Asia, and aim to control costs to match domestic levels within three years [2] Group 4: Industry Trends - Two key patterns in China's industrial overseas expansion are identified: industry clusters going abroad and a phased approach to market entry [3] - The evolution of the ASEAN class at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business illustrates the stages of overseas expansion, from passive capacity transfer to active risk diversification and brand development [5] Group 5: Middle East Market Dynamics - Companies should consider the significant influence of the U.S. and Western countries in the Middle East, as well as the strengthening ties between China and the region [5] - Middle Eastern countries are pursuing economic diversification away from energy dependence, presenting long-term opportunities in sectors like digital economy and green energy [5] - The high proportion of young people in the Middle East indicates a growing consumer market, which is an important factor for companies to monitor [5]

编者按：随着美国对华发起贸易战，中国国内部分产业链转移到东南亚，中国与东盟之间的经济关系日渐紧密。海关数据显示，中国对东盟连续 9年进出口保持增长，连续5年互为第一大贸易伙伴。可以说，中国与东盟充分发挥各自的资源优势、产业结构优势，贸易互补不断增强，带动了 上下游产品的进出口增长。 然而，伴随着双边贸易的高速增长，南海争端和美国对等关税等诸多挑战也同时困扰着中国与东盟。如何实现中国-东盟关系的新突破，已成为 双方政策制定的核心议题。在2025年6月举行的"全球南方与东南亚"学术会议上，观察者网和菲律宾中国研究会会长、亚太进步基金会研究员卢 西奥·布兰科·皮特洛三世，就中菲关系、中国-东盟关系的前景展开对话。 此外，菲律宾经历了不同的领导层更迭，每六年其外交政策、对华关系处理以及南海问题的应对策略都会出现摇摆。但共识在于，中国仍是菲律宾极为重要 的贸易伙伴，且应当以更妥善的方式处理与南海相关的议题。 卢西奥·皮特罗三世接受采访 观察者网：中菲之间的紧张态势在过去几年不断升级，这是为什么？如您所知，由于中美关系紧张，东盟的抉择正变得愈发艰难，而双向押注的对冲策略似 乎已经过时。这是否在经济上产生了反效果？ 卢西奥 ...

报告由林氏家居、Keep和艾瑞咨询联合发布 居家健康放松方式丨白皮书 核心摘要： 国民健康管理向身心灵平衡升级，居家运动放松成为重要手段 国民健康管理意识经历 从身体健康，到身心健康，再到身心灵平衡的三级跃迁。 高压生活导致国人身心灵 紧绷，系统性健康危机亟待破解。在此背景下， 运动和放松成为了国人健康管理的双引擎。 社会环境的发 展和科技的赋能，将居住空间转化为个人健康基站， 居家运动放松将成为健康生活重要环节 关注健康放松的人群追求高品质健康生活，家具舒适度是居家放松关键 关注健康放松的人群重视身心灵全面健康，愿意为自己的 高品质健康生活 投资；他们遵循自然节律，通过 运动和放松的有机结合实现高品质健康。 整体来看，当代人的放松空间既有居家，也有室外和商业室内场所，呈现跨空间利用的特点，但居家放松仍 为核心选择。另外， 家具舒适度是影响放松效果的关键因素，智能床架/床垫和沙发/沙发椅 是主要放松产 品。 从动态恢复至静态疗愈，四类人群借高品质家居重构健康阈值，高效放松 关注健康放松的人细分为 悦活高能族、自律管理派、宅家躺平派和松弛养生党。 悦活高能族： 能量外放，通过动态恢复 提升睡眠质量； 偏好运动恢 ...

Core Insights - The annual index conference held by Huaxia Fund highlighted the evolution of index investment strategies among different investors, emphasizing the importance of cognitive upgrades and strategic iterations in enhancing investment experiences [1][9]. Group 1: Investor Profiles - Xiong Siyuan transitioned from a confident "alpha" seeker to a focus on index investment and diversified allocation after facing challenges in the A-share market, now aiming to create excess returns through index-enhanced products [2]. - Ding Ying's investment journey spans 20 years, evolving from passive investment to active management, adjusting her portfolio from 90% bonds to a mix of 60%-80% bonds and equity, reflecting her growing risk tolerance and understanding [3]. - Ren Shuai, a user of the Hongse Huojian app, represents a younger demographic, moving from traditional bank savings to exploring tech-focused investments through funds, still identifying as a beginner in the investment landscape [4]. Group 2: Core Strategies - Ding Ying employs a strategy of "contrarian timing and dynamic balance," advocating for buying undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks, with a focus on 60%-80% allocation in government bonds as a stabilizing factor [5]. - Xiong Siyuan's framework includes "diversified allocation and index enhancement," emphasizing the importance of understanding risk tolerance and using tools to assess index valuations for informed investment decisions [6]. - Ren Shuai's approach is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, utilizing news events to identify investment signals and relying on community discussions to validate his investment strategies [7][8]. Group 3: Pitfalls to Avoid - Investors should be wary of "crowding traps," as highlighted by Xiong Siyuan's experience with excessive capital inflow into small-cap sectors leading to significant drawdowns, suggesting caution when popular funds are heavily promoted [9]. - Ding Ying warns against "mindless dollar-cost averaging," sharing her experience of incurring losses by continuing to invest in a declining market without trend analysis, advocating for a more strategic approach to investment timing [9]. - Xiong Siyuan advises caution with sector-specific indices due to their higher volatility compared to broad-based indices, recommending new investors limit their exposure to 5% of their portfolio [9]. Group 4: Investment Wisdom - Ding Ying emphasizes the importance of conscious investing, managing positions wisely, and taking profits during market exuberance [9]. - Xiong Siyuan suggests finding a set of long-term appreciating assets and maintaining a balanced allocation while investing during market dips [9]. - Ren Shuai encourages investors to discover their own "upward indices" to foster a positive investment journey [9].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：做配置的小雪 去年年底，我用雪球的三分法，创建了一个资产配置方案。今年过半，业绩已经6.23%了。（截至 25.6.25，采用资金加权收益率） 虽然不知道跑赢了多少主动管理型的基金经理，但是妥妥跑赢基准指数以及沪深300了。 经过半年多的实践，我发现， 普通投资者自己DIY资产配置方案，还是有很多优势的，比单押主动 基金靠谱多了。 优势1：投资范围没有限制 基金投资范围，会受到合同约束。 比如，股票型基金，不能投资商品，商品型基金，不能投资股票和债券，A股基金不能投资美 股，QDII基金不能投资A股等等。 此外，基金经理的奖金也会和规模挂钩，并且会面临短期业绩排名压力，这迫使他们为了追求短 期收益，而做出频繁调整策略、高换手、追涨热门题材等不理性行为，来吸引更多客户投资。 但是，经济发展是有周期的。当经济上行时，股票表现更好；当经济下行时，又利好债券；当出 现风险事件时，又轮到了黄金表演。此外，不同地区发展阶段也不同，比如前几年美股大牛市， A、港股惨遭大回调。 这就导致，基金经理因为重仓某一类资产，而难以长期穿越经济 ...