韩国央行行长李昌镛：在金融危机中，美元流动性的支持是恢复稳定的关键。 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank adjusted its open market operations on July 1, conducting a 131 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, and achieving a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][2] - In the first week of July, the open market faced significant withdrawal pressure, with reverse repos maturing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, including a high of 525.9 billion yuan on July 4 [1][3] - The central bank is expected to flexibly adjust operations based on changes in the funding environment, potentially increasing liquidity or utilizing other monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity levels [1][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Reactions - Market expectations suggest that liquidity will remain ample in July, with analysts predicting a minimal liquidity gap post-quarter-end [4][9] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a significant rise on June 30, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, but subsequently dropped after the quarter-end [3][9] - The central bank's decision not to announce the bond trading operations on June 30 has led to speculation that the rules for announcing such operations may have changed to "as needed" rather than at the end of the month [5][6] Group 3: Government Bond Trading Operations - The discussion around the resumption of government bond trading operations has intensified, especially given the seasonal tightening of funds at the end of the quarter [6][8] - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading is inevitable, but the timing will be carefully managed to minimize downward pressure on market yields [7][10] - The central bank's previous suspension of bond buying was attributed to factors such as limited government bond supply and the need to maintain yields at acceptable levels [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring capital flows and euro-denominated assets [1] Group 1 - The ECB's focus on capital flows indicates a proactive approach to managing economic stability within the Eurozone [1] - Monitoring euro assets suggests an interest in maintaining the attractiveness and competitiveness of the euro in global markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding US policies, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in over a decade [1] - Analysts indicate that both the Swiss franc and the euro are primary beneficiaries as investors look for alternatives to the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted that the rise of the Swiss franc occurred despite low yields on Swiss government bonds, suggesting a shift in liquidity preferences among investors [1] - There is an increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, which is putting additional pressure on the US dollar [1]

撰写品种:国债期货 成文日期: 20250701 报告周期:月度 研究分析师：武吟秋 咨询证号 (Z0018989) 咨询电话 (028-61303163) 国债期货月报:市场情绪偏强 目录栏 核心观点 一、期货市场分析 二、现货市场分析 三、期现结合分析 四、后市展望 核心观点 本月（20250601-0630）月初恰逢端午小长假,6 月 3 日开市交易,二年期国债主 力合约，五年国债主力合约，十年国债主力合约，三十年国债主力合约本月整体出现资 金流入的态势,月 K 线收阳,6 月 13 日以伊发生冲突,6 月 24 日宣布停火,6 月 16 日央行发布将开展 4000 亿元 6 个月买断式逆回购。央行在 6 月 24 日, 6 月 25 日, 6 月 26 日分别发布 7 天逆回购信息,整体释放资金流动性投放的信号,为债市提供了流 动性支撑，显示市场情绪偏强。 国债期货表格： | | 指标 | | 上月 | 本月 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | | 二年国债主力 | 102.396 | 102.498 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, indicating a seasonal liquidity easing in July, with expectations for a slight decline in funding rates [1][4][5]. Monetary Policy Actions - On July 1, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 1310 billion yuan, with both bidding and winning amounts matching this figure, and the operation rate set at 1.40% [1][4]. - A total of 4065 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature, leading to a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan from the open market [1]. Market Conditions - The market is expected to experience seasonal easing in July, with funding rates likely to stabilize and slightly decline [5][6]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with overnight Shibor rising by 5.1 basis points to 1.422% and 7-day Shibor increasing by 9.5 basis points to 1.763% prior to July 1 [4]. Economic Outlook - The first half of the year showed strong economic performance, reducing the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term [7][8]. - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth targets [5][9]. Future Expectations - The liquidity easing trend is expected to continue, with the PBOC likely to implement measures to ensure market liquidity remains abundant [6][9]. - The central bank may utilize various tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to manage liquidity effectively throughout the second half of the year [8][9].

（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 人民币国际化是一项长期任务，但国际化进程与中国经济在全球地位提升相比还是慢了。本文探讨人民币国际化进程加快的可能性，并对 由此带来的利弊进行分析。马克思曾在《资本论》中写道：从商品到货币的过程是一次惊险的跳跃。那么，人民币从当前状态锐变为全球 认可度很高的国际货币，是否也会是惊险一跃？本文主要从"流动性溢价"角度来论述人民币加快国际化步伐的可行性及意义。 本文要点： 人民币适度升值将一定程度上降低对于年度 GDP 增速的下限要求，避免过多通过投资"快变量"拉动经济增长，有助于经济结构 转型。 当前人民币国际化水平与中国经济体量不相匹配。人民币在外汇交易、国际支付、贸易融资、储备货币等方面的国际占比远低于 经济体量占比。 人民币支付在全球份额或存在低估。货币互换协议和 CIPS 的使用规模明显增加， SWIFT 对人民币支付的统计不完全，实际人民 币支付结算比例估计在 8% 左右。但人民币支付存在地域方面较为狭小的问题，国际支付主要发生在香港，占比超过 7 成。 历史经验表明，加速人民币国际化并不必然导致人民币贬值。我国 2005 年汇改后，人民币对美 ...

2025 年 07 月 01 日 持续配置反转因子 —— 量化资产配置月报 202507 - 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 持续配置反转因子。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济回落、流动性略偏松，信用指标转好， 微观映射中经济（盈利预期）好转回到中等，信用转好，微观流动性偏紧，因此仅流动性 触发修正，修正后的方向为经济下行、流动性偏紧而信用转好，修正后的方向与上期维持 一致；由于流动性与信用产生明显背离，我们主要按照对经济不敏感、对信用敏感来选择 得分前三的因子，各股票池配置风格仍偏向成长，300、500 的因子选择与上期保持一致， 无共振因子，中证 1000 的因子选择中增加了短期反转因子，低波动率、短期反转 ...

证券分析师：王艺熹 021-60893204 wangyixi@guosen.com.cn S0980522100006 证券研究报告 | 2025年7月1日 转债市场研判及"十强转债"组合 2025年7月 投资策略 · 固定收益 国信宏观固收 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 02 2025年7月转债配置策略 联系人：吴越 021-60375496 wuyue8@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 2025年6月转债市场回顾 03 2025年7月"十强转债"组合 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 股市方面，6月权益市场震荡上涨，尤其下旬在中东局势缓和、以及稳定币、小米汽车、军 贸等多项热点题材的催化之下，沪指再次站上3400点，截至6月27日沪指收于3424.2，全月 涨1.85%。申万一级行业多数收涨，受产业订单预期向好拉动的通信（+12 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《7 月利率会破新低么？——流动性周 报 20250629》 - 2025.06.30 固收周报 中长久期城投债流动性继续上升 ——流动性打分周报 20250630 ⚫ 核心解读 本周报以 qb 的债券资产流动性打分为基础，跟踪不同债券板块 个券的流动性得分情况。 城投债方面，分区域看，江苏、山东、四川高等级流动性债项均 有所增加，天津、重庆整体维持。分期限看，短久期和中长期债项流 动性均有所上升；其中 1 年以内和 1-2 年期高等级流动性债项有所增 加，2-3 年期有所减少，3-5 年期和 5 年期以上债项继续增加。从隐 含评级看，中高等级债项流动性增加，低等级债项流动性整体维持； 其中隐含评级为 AAA、AA+、AA、AA(2)的高等级流动性债项数量均有 所增加，隐含评级为 AA-的高等级流动性债项整体维持。 产业债方面 ...