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麻绎文:为何巴菲特钟爱现金流?解锁现金流的慢富密码
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-08 01:09
每经编辑|叶峰 相比于净利润指标,自由现金流有比较明显的优势。自由现金流利用现金流量表计算,现金流量表采用 收付实现制,它的透明度相对较高。此外,净利润指标也有很多调节的手段,自由现金流就能够做一个 很好的补充,能够更加真实反映企业每一年生产经营活动中产生的能够自由支配的现金。 近期市场上有很多现金流ETF发行,这些品种最核心的选股指标都是自由现金流率,它通过企业过去一 年产生的历史自由现金流和当前最新的企业价值之比来衡量企业当前能够回馈股东和债权人的能力。从 国内的历史回测来看,现金流策略长期有效,并且更适合作为A股大中盘的选股策略。 相比红利策略,我们觉得现金流ETF(159399)以及现金流策略从底层逻辑上会有一定的优势。企业现 金分红主要来自于生产经营活动产生的自由现金流,每个季度都能看到最新变化的企业自由现金流,相 比于红利会明显领先,并且自由现金流也能够去规避价值投资当中的价值陷阱问题。除此之外,现金流 策略跟红利一样也会有高抛低吸的操作,可以说吸取了红利的一些优势,也规避了红利的一些问题,是 红利很好的补充,甚至可能是替代指标。 富时自由现金流指数在A股市场大中盘里面去做筛选,通过盈利质量、波动 ...
OrthoPediatrics(KIDS) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-07 21:32
OrthoPediatrics (KIDS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants Philip Taylor - PrincipalDavid Bailey - President, CEO & DirectorFred Hite - CFO & COORick Wise - Managing Director - Medical Technology & SuppliesBen Haynor - Managing DirectorJoseph Conway - Equity Research Associate Conference Call Participants Matt O'Brien - AnalystRyan Zimmerman - Managing Director & Medical Technology Analyst Operator Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the OrthoPediatrics Corpora ...
McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) FY Conference Transcript
2025-05-07 15:30
McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) FY Conference May 07, 2025 10:30 AM ET Speaker0 Hey. Good morning, everyone. I'm Scott Schneeberger, senior business and industrial services analyst at Oppenheimer. Thank you all for joining us today. It's my pleasure to have from McGrath, with us today, the CFO, of excuse me. The CEO, Johanna, the CFO, Keith Pratt, and the COO, Phil Hawkins. We look forward to hearing the story. McGrath rents and sells modular office and classrooms and portable storage containers and electronic test ...
Voya Financial(VOYA) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-07 15:02
Voya Financial (VOYA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Mei Ni Chu - VP - IRHeather Lavallee - CEO & Board MemberMichael Katz - EVP & CFORyan Krueger - Managing DirectorJay Kaduson - CEO - Workplace SolutionsThomas Gallagher - Senior Managing DirectorElyse Greenspan - Managing DirectorKenneth Lee - Vice PresidentMatt Toms - CEO - Voya Investment Management Conference Call Participants Joel Hurwitz - Lead AnalystWes Carmichael - Senior AnalystSuneet Kamath - Senior Research ...
段永平投资问答:买股票就是买公司
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-05-07 13:59
所有有关投资的说法实际上都是在讨论如何看懂现金流的问题(如何把事情做对),比如生意模式、护城河、能 力圈等。在巴菲特这里我学到的最重要的东西就是生意模式。以前虽然也知道生意模式重要,但往往是和其他很 多重要的东西混在一起看的。当年巴菲特特别提醒我,应该首先看生意模式,这几年下来觉得确实应该如此。 投资是什么? 投资就是买未来现金流。 所谓能看懂公司就是能看懂其未来现金流(做对的事情)。 所有所谓有关投资的说法实际上都是在讨论如何看懂现金流的问题(如何把事情做对)。 买股票就是买公司,买公司就是买其未来现金流折现。这里现金流指的是净现金流,未来指的是公司的整个生命 周期,不是3年,也不是5年。 折现率实际上是相对于投资人的机会成本而言的。最低的机会成本就是无风险回报率,比如美国国债的利率。有 些人把自己生意中有限的资金投到股市里实际上是不合算的,因为其自己的生意获利往往比股市的平均回报高。 当然,多余资金投入无可非议。(听说国内某网络公司买了很多苹果的股票,这属于无可非议型的。)可我确实 看到不少公司贷着款还要买股票,看不懂啊。 所谓能看懂公司就是能看懂其未来现金流折现(做对的事情)。所谓未来现金流折现只是个思 ...
Adient(ADNT) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-07 13:32
Adient (ADNT) Q2 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company Participants Michael Heifler - VP - IR & StrategyJerome Dorlack - President & CEOMark Oswald - Executive VP & CFOJoseph Spak - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Emmanuel Rosner - Managing Director - Senior Autos & Auto Technology AnalystJames Picariello - Director & Sr. Automotive AnalystColin Langan - Automotive & Mobility AnalystDan Levy - Senior Equity Research AnalystEdison Yu - Analyst Operator Welcome and thank you for s ...
日元贬值催生洼地 绩优基金Orbis加码日本药店、地产股
智通财经网· 2025-05-07 09:44
Group 1 - Orbis International Equity Fund has doubled its investment in Japanese stocks, increasing the allocation from 10% to 24%, resulting in a year-to-date return of 16% [1][2] - The fund manager, Graeme Foster, highlights that the depreciation of the yen over the past decade has led to undervaluation of Japanese companies, creating a "golden pit" of investment opportunities [1][2] - The yen has appreciated nearly 10% against the dollar this year, making it the best-performing major currency globally, which is expected to provide "dual benefits" for foreign investors in Japanese import-oriented companies [1][2] Group 2 - Foster has allocated 4% of the fund to the Japanese pharmacy sector, focusing on companies like Tsuruha Holdings and Sundrug, which are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and bargaining power [2] - The fund holds significant positions in Asahi Group and Mitsubishi Estate, with the former showing a 40% dividend payout ratio and stock buyback plan, while the latter benefits from rising rental prices [2] - Outside of Japan, the fund has also seen gains from European defense and banking sectors, although it has exited positions in Rheinmetall due to high gains, while maintaining holdings in Hanwha Aerospace and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [2] Group 3 - Foster emphasizes a strategy focused on free cash flow yield, seeking companies that can generate 12%-14% cash flow returns, which allows for less concern over external factors like AI advancements or political policies [3] - The fund is validating the potential for traditional "value traps" to transform into "growth soil" as Japan emerges from deflation [3]
进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围,大力推动中长期资金入市,自由现金流ETF易方达(159222)成交活跃
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-07 08:28
Group 1 - A-shares indices opened significantly higher today, with high free cash flow assets performing strongly, including stocks like Zhenhua Heavy Industries, Laibao High-tech, Tailong Co., Laofengxiang, and Hisense Home Appliances, all rising over 3% [1] - The news conference by the State Council Information Office introduced a "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations," including plans to approve 60 billion yuan for long-term investments by insurance funds and adjustments to solvency regulatory rules, reducing stock investment risk factors by 10% [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, focusing on improving corporate governance and performance while increasing the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) tracks the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which is primarily distributed across the automotive, home appliance, oil and petrochemical, and coal industries [2] - The index categorizes companies into two main types: low-valuation cyclical assets like oil and petrochemicals, and high-quality assets primarily in the automotive and home appliance sectors, focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and business models [2]
鼓励险企加大入市力度,低费率的自由现金流ETF(159201)配置需求进一步加大
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-07 03:24
自由现金流ETF(159201) 5月7日,国证自由现金流指数盘中上行,成分股莱宝高科、太龙股份、金洲管道、华谊集团、欧圣电气等领涨。最低费率一档的自由现金流 ETF(159201)跟随指数上行,盘中成交额突破2.3亿元。 消息面上,金融监管总局局长李云泽在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示,充分发挥保险资金作为耐心资本和长期资本的作用,调整偿付能力的监 管规则,将股票投资的风险因子进一步调降10%,鼓励保险公司加大入市力度。 业内人士认为,社保基金、险资、QFII等长线资金的重仓股有所重合,与其投资特性相关。一般长线资金会更为注重投资标的的长期表现,因 此也更关注上市公司的业绩情况与未来发展的前景。对高股息、高自由现金流资产配置需求有望进一步加大,尤其是新会计准则 (IFRS9/IFRS17)下可计入 FVOCI(以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益)科目的标的,以平抑利润表波动。 国证自由现金流指数行业分布以汽车、家用电器、石油石化和煤炭为主。行业分布主要可以分为两类,一类是以低估值著称的的石油石化、煤 炭等周期资产,一类是以汽车、家用电器类为主的高质量资产。总体来看,指数优选基本面稳健、经营模式稳定、营业模式 ...
首批五只自由现金流ETF上市,“山西煤老板”现身,“老熟人”私募、券商也都来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 03:04
图片来源:界面图库 从5只基金披露的上市交易公告书中看,除了私募、券商等"老熟人"之外,智通财经记者统计发现,前 十名份额持有人中还出现了一些公司实体。 以华安中证全指自由现金流ETF(561080.SH)为例,该基金的前十名份额持有人中,厦门思明华林小 额贷款股份有限公司和上海秉昊世涛3号私募,分别持有300万份,占比均为0.68%。 华富中证全指自由现金流ETF(561870.SH)的前十名份额持有人中,除了北京和正通合6号私募、上海 洪赢久远长红1号私募之外,山西昌泰能源集团有限公司、大同市杏儿沟煤业有限责任公司、大同昌茂 煤炭有限公司等三家机构也现身其中,分别持有1031.2万份、300万份、300万份,占基金总份额的比例 分别为2.47%、0.72%、0.72%。 天眼查数据显示,山西昌泰能源集团有限公司成立于2020年,位于山西省吕梁市,主要从事矿产品、建 材及化工产品的批发。大同市杏儿沟煤业有限责任公司成立于2001年,位于山西省大同市,是一家以从 事煤炭开采和洗选业为主的企业。大同昌茂煤炭有限公司成立于2022年,位于山西省大同市,是一家从 事煤炭批发的企业。 图:华富中证全指自由现金流 ET ...