原油日报 | 2025-06-18 美国下场参与中东冲突可能性增加 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.07美元，收于每桶74.84美元，涨幅为4.28%；8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.22美元，收于每桶76.45美元，涨幅为4.40%。SC原油主力合约收涨6.13%，报553元/ 桶。 2、IEA发布石油市场月报：预计2025年原油总需求将达到平均1.038亿桶/日，2026年为1.045亿桶/日；预计2025年 全球石油供应为1.049亿桶/日，2026年为1.06亿桶/日；将2025年平均石油需求增长预期从74万桶/日下调至72万桶/ 日，将2026年的从76万桶/日下调至74万桶/日；将2025年全球石油供应增长预测从160万桶/日上调至180万桶/日， 将2026年的从97万桶/日上调至110万桶/日。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、IEA认为，鉴于美国汽油价格走低且电动汽车普及放缓，全球石油需求仍将增长至本十年末。这与欧佩克认为 石油消费将持续增长，且未预测需求峰值的观点形成鲜明对比。IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到1.056亿 桶/日的 ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日 原油：或延续强势挑战 85 美元，多单持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月收涨 3.07 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%，报 74.84 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收涨 3.22 美 元/桶，涨幅 4.40%，报 76.45 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收涨 31.90 元/桶，涨幅 6.13%，报 552.50 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强， -2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 13. 欧佩克月报：预计明年美国页岩油产量将稳定在 905 万桶/日；5 月欧佩克+原油日产量平均为 4123 万桶，较 4 月增加了 18 万桶；下调对 2026 年美国及其他非欧佩克+产油国石油供应增长 的预测；尽管存在贸易担忧，但经济前景依然强劲（最新报告未提及以伊 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices have surged to a nearly five-month high due to concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply following speculation about U.S. involvement in attacks on Iran [1][4] - Brent crude oil has risen by 4.4% in the previous trading session, surpassing $76 per barrel, while WTI crude is close to $75 per barrel [1][4] - The Middle East accounts for approximately one-third of global oil production, and any escalation in conflict could lead to further increases in oil prices [1][4] Group 2 - The primary concern in the oil market is centered around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil production passes [4] - Trump's demands for Iran to "unconditionally surrender" and threats against Iranian leadership indicate a lack of diplomatic solutions, raising the risk of oil price spikes due to potential export disruptions or blockade of the Strait [4] - Recent U.S. industry data shows a decline of over 10 million barrels in crude oil inventories, which, if confirmed, would represent the largest drop since last summer [4]

Group 1 - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran is causing a decline in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping costs due to heightened regional security concerns [1][2] - The U.S. Senate has passed a significant cryptocurrency legislation aimed at promoting growth in the digital asset industry, marking a historic lobbying victory for cryptocurrency companies [2] - The European Union plans to phase out imports of Russian pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2027, alongside a complete halt to Russian oil imports [4] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% and will slow the reduction of government bond purchases starting from April 2026, reducing the purchase amount from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen per quarter [5] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks believe they will continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil production will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day to 104.9 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is expected to be 103.8 million barrels per day, leading to a supply surplus [5]

6月中旬的伊以冲突，再一次影响了地缘经济与地缘政治。 其实这场冲突早有端倪，5月特朗普特别来了次中东之行，而后美国就开始提醒在伊朗的美国人撤离。 整个中东行，从战略高度来讲，是美国主动升高和中国和欧洲之间的对抗，加强美国的影响力。 首先来讲地缘经济效应。 川普1.0时，纽约、德州原油的行情大部分时候在40到50美元这个区间，到了拜登时期，上升到75到85 美元。 照理说油价走高之后，中东的石油输出国家组织会增产，油价于是会跌回来。 中东国家也看到了这个趋势，所以改弦更张，开始扩产，代表就是伊朗组织联盟，准备大开发。 今年年初，油价在78美元上下，5月初已经跌破60美元，看到55美元。 第一，是油价。 但事实是，没有发生这个现象，因为中东国家对于开采的投资缩手了。 原因是各国掀起了绿色能源的推广，尤其是美国。 所以中东产油国对未来10年的石油需求预期有了疑惑，开始想着减产，维持油价。 而特朗普到沙阿拉伯国家访问，关起门来后，谈的就是石油增产的问题。 特朗普一上任，就退出巴黎气候协定，取消对绿色能源的补助，鼓励对页岩油、页岩气的开采。 他想要就业，想要燃油经济，当美国的能源供应增加时，油价当然有下跌的趋势。 这也 ...

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and creating new shocks to the international energy market, which could affect global supply chains and economic growth [1] - Historical conflicts in the Middle East have led to significant volatility in global energy markets, and the current situation is expected to lead to a period of turbulence in international oil prices [1][2] - Iran's oil production remains over 3 million barrels per day, with exports around 2 million barrels per day, but any disruption due to the conflict could significantly impact international energy supply [2] Group 2 - The potential impact of the conflict on other Gulf oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is noteworthy, although they have not yet been directly affected [3] - Iraq's security situation is critical, as it lies in the path of the conflict, and any escalation could disrupt its oil production [3] - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a significant variable that could lead to a spike in international oil prices, although Iran is unlikely to take such action unless absolutely necessary [4] Group 3 - The overall impact of the conflict on Iran's oil exports is manageable, as other OPEC+ countries have the capacity to compensate for any potential shortfall [5] - The current global oil demand is slowing, and supply remains relatively ample, which may buffer the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][5] - The ongoing conflict poses risks of escalation, including potential Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to further instability in the international energy market [5]

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：对俄罗斯石油出口价格施加更低的价格上限方面，现在面临的压力微乎其 微。 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the so-called "EU cancellation of high-level economic dialogue with China," stating that China and the EU have maintained communication on economic and trade issues and are willing to work together to promote stable and long-term relations [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in May, foreign investment in domestic stocks increased further compared to the previous month, while net outflows from service trade, foreign-invested enterprises' dividends, and foreign direct investment remained stable overall [1] International News - U.S. President Trump is seeking a more proactive solution than a ceasefire and may send Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo to negotiate with Iran [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, stating that unless there are significant disruptions, the oil market is expected to have ample supply until 2030 [2]

Group 1 - Dow futures fell by 0.56%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.49%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 0.50% [1] - Li Auto's pre-market shares fell over 2% after Meituan's CEO Wang Xing reduced his stake by 573,700 shares, cashing out over 600 million HKD, lowering his ownership from 20.94% to 20.61% [1] - Brain Regen Technologies saw a pre-market surge of over 40%, with a previous closing increase of 283%, reaching a record high of 60 USD per share, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50 times [1] - T-Mobile's pre-market shares dropped nearly 4% as SoftBank raised 4.8 billion JPY through the sale of T-Mobile shares [1] - A Boeing 787 aircraft operated by All Nippon Airways experienced a malfunction after landing, temporarily closing parts of the airport's runways and taxiways [1] Group 2 - Citigroup predicts gold prices will decline below 3,000 USD per ounce in the coming quarters due to weak demand and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - OpenAI is reportedly seeking new financial concessions from its major shareholder Microsoft, aiming for approximately 33% ownership in the restructured department in exchange for relinquishing future profit-sharing rights [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years, driven by a surge in electric vehicle sales, which are expected to reach a record 17 million units in 2024 and exceed 20 million in 2025 [2]

挪威工党：在议会上达成修订后的预算协议，整体石油基金支出保持不变。 ...