巴西财政部长Haddad：特朗普的关税决定纯粹是政治性的。 美国关税威胁并非基于任何经济理由。 美国关税在经济和政治上不可持续。 ...

2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆将于十分钟后就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。 ...

Core Insights - The discussion between Howard Marks and Chen Guangming focuses on the current global economic situation, investment strategies, and market opportunities [1][3][4] - Marks expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, stating it remains in a "sustained good state" despite trade policy uncertainties introduced by Trump [1][2][8] - Both Marks and Chen emphasize the importance of intrinsic value in investment decisions, advocating for a long-term, patient approach to investing [1][2][12] Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks believes the U.S. economy is vibrant and continues to perform well, despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade policies [2][8][10] - Chen agrees that the U.S. remains a highly rewarding investment destination for the coming decades, dismissing notions of the end of "American exceptionalism" [2][10] - The recent downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds is viewed as having minimal practical implications, with the default probability only slightly increasing from 0.5% to 1% [2][17] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Marks emphasizes that investment decisions should start with the assessment of the investment target rather than macroeconomic predictions [12][28] - Both Marks and Chen advocate for maintaining composure during market volatility and focusing on long-term value creation [12][39] - Chen highlights the need for investors to resist emotional impulses, especially in a volatile market environment [27][39] Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - Chen points out that many Chinese companies may be undervalued, citing the example of DeepSeek as a sign of China's potential in technology and innovation [1][21][24] - Marks acknowledges that the U.S. does not monopolize technological advancements, recognizing China's competitive capabilities in sectors like AI [21][22] - Chen expresses optimism about China's long-term economic strength and the potential for significant returns from investments in Chinese companies [24][28] Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Marks and Chen agree that market volatility can create opportunities for value investors, particularly during downturns [12][20][31] - Chen notes that during periods of uncertainty, it is crucial to focus on companies that continue to generate cash flow and maintain intrinsic value [14][27] - Marks stresses the importance of understanding that market fluctuations often exaggerate the perceived changes in company fundamentals [34][39]

" 在艰难时刻敢于出手非常关键。 这不是'接飞刀'，这恰恰是我们的专业所在。 " " 我们都认同的一个核心观点是： 投资的 关键在于能客观评估出真实的价值。当市场波动导致价格偏 离价值时，我们应该利用这种波动来获利，而不是被它牵着走。 " "中国乐观的一面，现在正在慢慢地展现给全球的投资人，我们相信，随着时间的推移可能会有越来越 多的投资人，尤其是海外投资人会意识到中国长期发展的潜力。" 今晚中金财富 "云会客厅"， 睿远基金创始人陈光明 与 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯 进行了一 场对话。 这也是两人第三次的公开交流。话题从关税政策谈到美债利率，从 DeepSeek引发的中美科技竞争谈到 熊市中的信心与逆向操作，而他们不约而同强调的，始终是"看清内在价值"的能力与"长期坚守"的信 念。 谈到4月份的市场巨大波动，两人都默契承认，当时自己所在机构"积极买入"、 "有明显加仓动作"，因 为市场情绪提供了买便宜货的机会。 整场对话没有宏大叙事，也没有预测市场的喧哗判断，更多的是两位老派价值投资者在不确定时代中对 投资常识的深度共鸣。 聪明投资者 （ID: Capital-nature） 整理全程，原汁原味分享 ...

2025年7月10日，上证指数成功站上3500点。 大约三个月前，上证指数一天跌了 7.34%，收于3096.58点。彼时大家可能都 没想到，此后A股表现强韧，主题轮动热点不断，指数一路上行，并最终在今 天站上3500点。这个点位上一次触及，是2024年10月8日，这个点位上一次 站稳，还是2022年1月24日 （ 数据来源：Choice ） 。 以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 站上 3500点意味着什么？我们又该如何看待当前市场水温？现在还适合入市 吗？ 当前市场水温如何？ 回顾历史数据，当前各指数水温各有差异。上证指数点位回到 2022年初水平，中证2000指数一举收复至2017年4月的点位水平。 沪深 300、中证800、创业板指回到今年3月中旬点位，中证红利指数收复年初点位。主动权益基金也已修复4月跌幅，回到三月中旬点位。 而港股市场，自去年 9月开始受益于基本面和资金面的好转，一路震荡上行，截至目前，恒生指数和恒生科技指数也均已超越去年9月高点。 上证指数及中证 2000指数近10年表现 数据来源：Choice ，2015/7/1- ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is set to impose a new "maritime service fee" starting October 14, which has raised concerns among automakers and shipping companies about its impact on U.S. consumers [1][3] - The initial proposal for the fee was $150 per Car Equivalent Unit (CEU), but it was later adjusted to $14 per net ton due to industry pressure, although stakeholders remain dissatisfied with the changes [3][4] - Major companies like Ford and Caterpillar have expressed that the proposed fees could lead to increased costs for consumers and hinder U.S. exporters' ability to ship products overseas [4][5] Group 2 - The American automotive industry lobby group, Autos Drive America, indicated that the U.S. shipbuilding industry would require years to provide sufficient American-built vessels, making the fee's intended purpose unachievable [4] - The American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) highlighted the limited capacity of U.S. shipyards to produce the necessary vessels, which could further complicate the situation [4][6] - The logistics industry is currently observing the implementation of the new fees, with concerns that even alternative shipping routes would lead to higher costs [5] Group 3 - The South Korean government has requested an exemption from the new fees, arguing that it would impose significant burdens on their automotive manufacturers, such as Hyundai and Kia, and disrupt the U.S.-Korea trade relationship [6][7] - The Korean government emphasized that the fees could introduce additional regulatory layers and double burdens for non-U.S. automotive transport participants [6][7] - They also requested a cap on the frequency of fee assessments to mitigate unpredictable costs for the automotive shipping industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced the establishment of a new political party, the "American Party," targeting former ally and current President Trump, following a significant drop in Tesla's market value by $100 billion in a week [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Tesla - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump has eliminated several clean energy incentives, which directly impacts Tesla's carbon credit trading business, a revenue source that generated $2.8 billion in the past year, accounting for nearly 40% of its profits [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits could reduce Tesla's annual operating profit by $1.2 billion [3]. - Following the decline in Tesla's second-quarter global vehicle deliveries by 13.48% year-over-year and the public fallout with Trump, Tesla's stock price dropped by 6.79%, resulting in a market value loss of over $68 billion [7]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Musk's anger towards the new legislation is evident as he criticized it on social media, calling it "absurd," "disgusting," and "destructive," while Trump retaliated by stating Musk has received more subsidies than anyone in history [5]. - Musk's establishment of the "American Party" aims to reclaim freedom for the people and seeks to win 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections, which could shift the legislative balance in a closely divided Congress [5]. - Analysts suggest that Musk's political maneuvering may be a strategy to pressure Trump and the Republican Party into policy compromises by splitting their voter base [5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Establishing a new national political party in the U.S. involves complex certification processes, making it a challenging endeavor [6]. - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the U.S. is inherently unfavorable for third-party development, as noted by political experts [6]. - Despite Musk's financial resources, breaking the dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties remains a significant hurdle [7]. Group 4: Broader Implications - Musk's political engagement raises concerns among investors about potential distractions from his business focus, particularly regarding Tesla and SpaceX, which holds $22 billion in federal contracts [7]. - The conflict between Musk and Trump reflects deeper fractures within Trump's political alliance, highlighting the fragile relationship between technology capital and political power in the U.S. [8]. - The situation illustrates the challenges faced by tech capital in attempting to influence political agendas, as evidenced by the backlash against Tesla despite Musk's previous support for Trump [8].

本文来自：肖小跑，原文标题：《美国那些被预言会遭"毁灭性打击"的经济指标，怎么看起来越来越健康?》，头图来自：视觉中国 今天写点大家可能不爱听的。 当懂王"解放日"宣布全球关税政策时，专家们的预测几乎是一边倒的：通胀会飙升，失业率会上升，股市会崩盘，小企业会倒闭。我当时也觉得这逻辑挺合 理的——关税就是税，最终还是消费者买单。 这时候考验经济学家"成功预测过去五次衰退中的九次"技能的时候到了：且看大家会用何种姿势继续坚持自己逻辑。比如"莫急，真正的影响还没开始，等 企业库存消化完，等关税真正传导到终端，你们就知道厉害了。" 但这次可能还真的不太一样。 这次的问题不在于经济学家是不是有真功夫，而在于我们已经生活在两个平行宇宙里——一个是由数据构成的真实世界，另一个是由叙事构成的媒体世界。 最近看到一个特别有意思的图表，来自美国小企业联合会的调查。把调查问题分成两类：一类是"硬数据"（就业数据、投资活动、消费等），另一类是"软 数据"（比如对未来的情绪、预期、信心）。 但几个月过去了，美国失业率依然保持在4.1%的历史低位，GDP预期2.5%，股市像什么都没发生一样又创了新高。那些被预言要承受"毁灭性打击"的经济 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report released on July 10, 2025, by Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This year, US crude oil daily production is expected to increase by 160,000 barrels to 1.337 million barrels, and production will remain flat in 2026. This forecast is about 50,000 barrels per day lower than the agency's June estimate [1] - Despite the recovery and stabilization of oil prices after falling to multi - year lows due to global demand concerns, the number of active drilling platforms in the US continues to decline and is currently at a near - four - year low [1] - US spot crude oil grades show mixed trends due to increased inventories but expected rising refinery demand [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - As of the week ending July 4, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 829.024 million barrels, an increase of 7.31 million barrels from the previous week; US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.021 million barrels, an increase of 7.07 million barrels; US gasoline inventory was 229.468 million barrels, a decrease of 2.66 million barrels; distillate inventory was 102.797 million barrels, a decrease of 830,000 barrels [1] - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.69% (7,070 thousand barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 2.24% (464 thousand barrels), US gasoline inventory decreased by 1.15% (- 2,658 thousand barrels), US distillate inventory decreased by 0.80% (- 825 thousand barrels), US total oil product inventory increased by 0.52% (6,411 thousand barrels), US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.06% (238 thousand barrels) [2] Production, Import, and Export Data - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US crude oil production decreased by 0.36% (- 48 thousand barrels per day), US crude oil imports decreased by 13.09% (- 906 thousand barrels per day), and US crude oil exports increased by 19.61% (452 thousand barrels per day) [2] Refinery Data - The US refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.21% (- 0.2 percentage points) from 94.9% to 94.7% from the week of June 27 to the week of July 4, 2025 [2]

菜籽系产业日报 2025-07-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9468 | -42 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2611 | 25 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 56 275066 | -4 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -6801 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 295 567403 | 22 -26 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 17084 | 1352 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11937 | -109 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3021 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15030 | -633 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 681.6 | -23 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5069 ...