美元兑日元下跌0.52%，至146.71，盘中跌幅高达1.2%。高盛分析师在给客户的一份说明中表示，尽管 会议的细节很少，但"它让人们重新关注被低估的贸易顺差货币在美元走软的环境中升值的空间"。这一 分析反映了市场对美元未来走势的不确定性，以及对全球经济格局变化的敏感性。 与此同时，英镑下跌0.32%至1.3261美元。英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）委员曼恩表示，她上周投 票决定维持借贷成本不变，因为英国劳动力市场的韧性超出了她的预期。她曾在2月份寻求将借贷成本 大幅下调50个基点。这一表态显示出英国央行在货币政策上的谨慎态度，以及对国内经济形势的密切关 注。 美联储官员的言论也对市场产生了重要影响。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比表示，数据显示4月份消费者通 胀温和并不一定反映出美国进口关税上升的影响，美联储仍需要更多数据来确定物价和经济的走向。美 联储副主席杰斐逊也表达了类似的观点，他表示，近期的通胀数据表明在实现美联储2%的目标方面取 得了良好进展，但由于新的进口税可能会推动价格上涨，因此目前的前景并不明朗。 ETOMARKETS认为美元周三的走势反映了市场对全球经济形势、贸易局势和美联储政策的复杂反应。 尽管 ...

美元周三小幅走高，从早些时候的下跌中反弹，因为投资者等待全球贸易战将继续缓解的新信号。 包括高盛、摩根大通和巴克莱在内的几家主要券商最近下调了对美国经济衰退的预测和对美联储政策宽松的看法。 "显然，如今一切都仍然非常集中在贸易上，这仍然是推动事情发展的巨大催化剂，"杰富瑞（Jefferies）驻纽约的全球外汇主管布拉德·贝克特尔（Brad Bechtel）说。 "亚洲货币领域仍然存在很大的波动性，但美元应该仍处于逆势反弹中，然后最终将再次开始走低，可能是通过某种后门或闭门安排。" 衡量美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数上涨 0.06% 至 101.04，欧元下跌 0.06% 至 1.1177 美元。 投资者也在消化韩国财政部副部长崔智英 （Choi Ji-young） 于 5 月 5 日会见美国财政部的罗伯特·卡普罗特 （Robert Kaproth） 讨论外汇市场，这帮助美元 兑韩元跌至一周来的最低水平。 但彭博社援引一位知情人士的话报道称，美国不会就美元走软进行谈判，作为关税谈判的一部分，亚洲货币的波动有所缓和。 韩元兑美元上涨 0.84% 至 1,402.66 美元，此前曾上涨 2.1%。美元兑日元下跌 0.5 ...

Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly observed significant economic performance disparities across different regions in the U.S., with Las Vegas concerned about reduced international tourism, while states like Utah and Alaska maintain robust economic activity [3] - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a "divided" state regarding the economic outlook, with Daly expressing optimism about the economy's strength and declining inflation, while Vice Chair Jefferson warns of declining confidence among businesses and households [3] - Jefferson highlighted that if Trump's tariff policies continue to escalate, it could hinder the decline in inflation and potentially lead to rising prices again, indicating increasing uncertainty within the Fed regarding future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3155.90 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.78%, with a daily high of $3195.60 and a low of $3150.90 [4] - The short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified between $3358 and $3368, while support levels are noted between $3130 and $3140 [4]

换资前言： 空单策略： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄金低位徘徊，目前交投于3183.50美元/盎司附近。金价周三下跌逾 2%，盘中最低3167.94美元/盎司，为4月10日以来新低，收报3177.32美元/盎司，因贸易乐观情绪升温 提振风险偏好，导致投资者撤离金市。这一轮突如其来的下跌让不少投资者措手不及，也引发了市场对 黄金未来走势的广泛讨论。此次金价下跌的直接导火索是全球贸易紧张局势的缓和。美国和中国同意大 幅降低关税，并宣布在制定细节期间暂停征收关税90天，这一重大利好消息极大地提振了市场风险偏 好。华尔街主要股指应声走高，投资者纷纷撤离避险资产，转向风险更高的投资品种。值得注意的是， 黄金上月刚创下3500.05美元的历史新高，今年累计涨幅仍达21.3%，这轮回调可以视为对前期过快上涨 的技术性修正。交易员正密切关注即将公布的美国生产者价格指数(PPI)数据，以寻找美联储政策路径 的新线索。 一个人如果没有了目标和信念，哪怕有再多人给你指引，也是徒劳。问问自己心中所想做这个投资的目 的是什么？达到了吗？还差多远？需要怎样的条件才可以早日 ...

美联储戴利：鉴于不确定性，市场对政策的任何指引都将是猜测且可能错误的。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply due to easing global trade tensions, which reduced concerns about a potential economic recession and diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The recent drop in gold prices saw a significant decline of $50 within three hours, breaking below the $3200 mark [1][3] - The U.S. April CPI annual rate decreased to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two interest rate cuts by 2025 totaling 56 basis points [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under a bearish correction, with the price failing to break the key resistance level of $3260 [5] - Technical indicators show negative pressure on gold prices, with the current price below the 50-day moving average and a negative signal from the relative strength index (RSI) [5] - The analysis suggests a continued downtrend, with a potential target of $2909 if the price breaks below the previous low of $3200 [3][5] Group 3 - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions below $3200, with specific targets set at $3175 and $3150 [7] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach, combining technical and fundamental analysis while maintaining strict risk management practices [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in gold prices on May 12, with international spot gold falling below $3300 per ounce and reaching a low of $3207 per ounce, reflecting a notable daily decline [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as evidenced by the calming signals from the India-Pakistan conflict and renewed negotiation proposals from Russia regarding Ukraine [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a growing anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and subsequently lower its demand [4] Group 3 - Technical selling pressure has intensified, with a significant reduction in net long positions in gold and a high percentage of programmatic selling contributing to the price drop [5] Group 4 - Domestic consumption demand for gold has weakened post the May Day holiday, with reduced market demand and some brands resorting to discount promotions to accelerate inventory turnover, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [7] Group 5 - The combined effects of geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, technical selling, and domestic demand fluctuations have collectively contributed to the sharp decline in gold prices on May 12 [9]

不确定通胀压力是否只是暂时的。 我们的任务面临的双方面的风险都在增加。 美联储副主席Jefferson： 美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 近期的通胀数据与通胀迈向2%的目标水平一致。 政府政策效果可能在"一段时间内"不确定。 关税更高可能导致今年通胀更高。 下调了2025年的增长预期，但仍预计经济将增长。 从硬数据中寻找经济疲软的迹象。 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including investor behavior, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the US dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of buying on dips acts as an invisible "safety net" in the gold market, with significant buying interest emerging when prices drop, reflecting investors' strong belief in gold as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [3]. - After gold prices fell to a low of $3207.30 per ounce, a surge of buying interest quickly entered the market, indicating a robust demand for gold amidst economic uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which was below the expected 0.3%, providing a boost to gold prices [4]. - The mild inflation report is expected to support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events reinforces the historical wisdom of buying gold during tumultuous times, as investors seek to protect their assets from potential losses [5]. Group 4: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, highlighting the negative correlation between the two [7]. - Despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, the dollar remains lower than its level when tariffs were announced, influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and subsequently gold prices [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Gold faces three key variables: the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks [8]. - The market is advised to monitor these factors closely, as they will significantly impact risk appetite and demand for gold [8].