新增就业料小幅降温、失业率或将保持稳定 尽管特朗普关税措施导致不确定性增加，但美国劳动力市场总体保持稳定，新增就业料小幅降温。 各先行指标支持就业逐渐放缓的趋势： ADP就业报告较为惨淡，5月仅新增3.7万个职位，远低于预期的11万，为2023年3月以来已 经最低。ADP直言不讳，在强劲开局后，招聘浪潮正在消失。 全球关税谈判前景扑朔迷离，马斯克与特朗普关系破裂公开互撕，一片混乱中华尔街再迎关键考验，今 夜非农就业数据将如期而至。 北京时间6月6日晚20:30，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将公布5月非农就业报告。华尔街基本共识为： 非农就业人数增加12.6万，较4月份的17.7万人降温，这一增幅低于三个月的平均水平15.5 万，而失业率则有望连续第三个月维持在4.2%。 薪资增长同比将小幅回落，平均时薪环比将增长0.3%，4月份为0.2%；工资同比预计增长 3.7%，前值为3.8%，将继续支撑消费者支出。 值得一提的是，分析师的预期范围较为广泛，新增就业在7.5—19万之间，分析认为今年就业增长很大 程度上反映了企业囤积劳动力。关于当下市场关注焦点——关税、DOGE、移民政策，分析认为，关税 对就业增长将转为"逆 ...

Market Overview - Non-farm payroll data is set to be released tonight, with the overall market in a wait-and-see mode. Asian and European stock markets are mostly flat, while India's unexpected rate cut led to a 0.8% increase in its stock market [1] - Following a significant drop in Tesla's stock price, Asian suppliers in Tesla's supply chain also experienced declines. However, after a cooling of tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, U.S. stock index futures saw a slight increase, with Tesla's pre-market shares rising over 6% [1] Commodity Performance - Precious metals continue to rise due to technical breakthroughs and industrial demand, with silver up over 1% and platinum increasing over 2% to its highest level since 2022 [2] - Spot gold saw a slight increase of approximately 0.2%, while both New York silver and spot silver rose over 1.4% [7] Stock Index Performance - Core asset performance shows that S&P 500 futures, Dow futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures all rose over 0.4% [3][10] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.5%, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained mostly flat [4] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index increased slightly by 0.2%, while the euro and pound both fell by 0.2%, and the yen depreciated by approximately 0.3% [5] - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by about 2 basis points [6] Oil and Cryptocurrency - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 0.5% [8] - Bitcoin dropped about 1% to below $104,000, while Ethereum fell approximately 6% [9]

智通财经6月6日电，埃隆·马斯克通过社交媒体表示，美国总统特朗普的关税政策将导致今年下半年美 国经济衰退。 马斯克：特朗普政府关税政策将致美国经济衰退 ...

马斯克：特朗普关税政策将导致今年下半年美国经济衰退。 ...

马斯克：美国总统特朗普的关税将造成美国经济在下半年陷入衰退。 ...

作 者丨叶麦穗吴斌 编 辑丨包芳鸣刘雪莹 黄金盘中跳水！现货黄金盘中一度冲破3400美元/盎司，随后迅速跌破3380美元/盎司。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 3371.633 | | 昨结 3371.890 开盘 | 3374.250 | | | -0.257 -0.01% | | 总量(kg) 0.00 现手 | | O | | 3403.440 最高价 | 持 仓 | 0 | | 0.000 | | 最低价 3360.925 | 增 位 | O | | 0.000 | | 공개4 五日 | HK 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | 申名 | | | | 叠加 | | | | | | | | な | | | | 3403.440 | | 0.94% 卖1 | 3372.064 | O | | | | 示 | 3371.633 | 0 | | | | | 23:11 3371.520 0 | | | | | | 23:11 3371.500 0 | | | | | 0.00% 23:11 3371. ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月05日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.23%，沪银主力收跌0.01%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普最新金属关税生效，欧盟和美国代表报告贸 易对话进展迅速。③货币属性方面，美联储褐皮书显示，关税提高物价压力，美国经济活动下滑。面对关税不确定性美国劳动力市 场放缓，裁员人数创九个月最大增幅。ADP报告显示，5月民间就业岗位仅增加3.7万个，远低于预估的增加11万个。多位美联储 决策者重申在制定货币政策时要谨慎行事。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多，中期 高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较 ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell met with President Trump to discuss economic development issues, including growth, employment, and inflation, without addressing monetary policy expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that officials recognize the challenging trade-offs ahead due to rising inflation and increasing unemployment, with heightened risks of an economic recession in the coming months [1] - New Zealand's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the lowest since September 2022, indicating room for further rate cuts [4] - The Bank of Korea also reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, revising its growth forecast for South Korea down from 1.5% to 0.8% due to economic downturn risks [4] Central Bank Officials' Perspectives - New York Fed President Williams emphasized the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations and the need for strong measures if inflation deviates from targets [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted an internal debate on whether to view tariff impacts as temporary or long-term, affecting the approach to monetary policy [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee suggested that resolving trade policy issues could allow the economy to return to pre-tariff conditions, enabling potential rate cuts [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly anticipates two rate cuts by the end of the year, aiming to maintain a moderately restrictive policy until inflation reaches targets [2] Market Observations - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ predict that the Federal Reserve may need to implement rate cuts later this year to support the economy, which could weaken the dollar [5] - Goldman Sachs believes tariffs will only cause temporary inflation fluctuations in the U.S., forecasting core PCE inflation to rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025 [5] - The Australian Federal Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cautiously lower rates further, with a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [5]

2025.06. 05 尽管历届总统普遍使用自动签字笔签署文件，但近期特朗普频频提及此事，并指责拜登在总统任期末 期精神状态恶化。拜登方面则否认了相关指控。 微信编辑 | 星翼 推荐阅读 据央视新闻，当地时间4日， 记者 获悉，美国总统特朗普已下令展开调查， 审查拜登政府的助手是 否 隐瞒了拜登认知能力下降的情况 ，包括是否使用自动签字笔代替总统本人签署官方文件。 特朗普在4日发布的一份声明中表示， 此项调查将聚焦拜登助手是否曾试图"欺骗公众"，掩盖拜 登"严重的认知能力衰退"。 他在行政命令中写道： "这一阴谋构成了美国历史上最危险、最令人担忧的丑闻之一 。" 马斯克，发文告别 本文字数：285，阅读时长大约1分钟 ...

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：震荡横盘 | 6 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 锌：区间调整 | 8 | | 铅：低位企稳 | 9 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 10 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | ...