Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that gold prices may experience a short-term pullback due to improved risk sentiment and the potential strengthening of the US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Stronger-than-expected US employment report encourages market bets on a stronger dollar, further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Improved risk sentiment is contributing to a less favorable outlook for gold [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - Despite the potential for a short-term pullback, technical trading indicators remain bullish, indicating that there is still potential for gold to rise again [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the relationship between China and the U.S., as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent improvement in U.S.-China relations, indicated by the June 5 phone call between the leaders, suggests a potential easing of trade tensions, which could stabilize global markets and reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict, while currently limited, could lead to increased demand for gold if the situation escalates. However, the current restraint from both sides indicates limited immediate impact on gold prices [4]. Group 2: Current and Future Price Predictions - Current gold prices are approximately 830 yuan per gram, which is considered a high point [6]. - It is anticipated that gold prices may fluctuate between 750 and 780 yuan per gram in the short term, with a potential drop to around 680 yuan if substantial progress is made in U.S.-China relations [7]. - The likelihood of gold prices falling below 650 yuan is minimal due to the absence of significant interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Long-term gold price trends will be influenced by global inflation, changes in monetary policy, and fiscal policies across countries, leading to potential volatility [7]. - While gold can be a part of an investment strategy, it is advised to diversify investments rather than concentrating solely on gold due to inherent market risks [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the shift in gold market sentiment from bullish to bearish, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend or a breakout above 3330 [1] - It highlights the current resistance level that gold has reached, suggesting that traders are closely monitoring this point for future price movements [1] - The article mentions a live trading session by a trading academy, indicating ongoing engagement and analysis in the gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold price in Shanghai is higher than the international gold price, indicating a potential opportunity for investors in the domestic gold market [1]. Group 1 - As of June 9, 2025, the midday gold price in Shanghai is 771.29 CNY per gram, which is 3.57 CNY higher than the international gold price of 767.72 CNY per gram [1].

Group 1 - The non-farm employment population increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000, which has slowed down the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rate cuts [3] - Following the release of the strong employment data, gold prices fell below $3,330 and approached the $3,300 mark [3] - The current price movement suggests that if prices remain above $3,280, there is still potential for further upward movement, despite the recent significant pullback [3] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for the day are identified at the high point of $3,332-$3,336 and the drop point of $3,370, which serves as a short-term bearish defense level [5] - Key support levels are at the lower channel line around $3,280 and the previous top-bottom conversion level at $3,250 [5]

消息面上，6月7日，央行公布的数据显示，中国5月末黄金储备报7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司。继去 年11月重启增持后，这已是央行连续第7个月增持黄金。 据智通财经，世界黄金协会（WGC）近期发布的月度报告显示，展望未来，WGC继续认为黄金有上涨 潜力，并指出全球贸易战和不断上升的关税尚未显著推高通胀。由于通胀侵蚀实际收益率，且经济增长 放缓令股市和周期性大宗商品承压，黄金可能仍是滞胀环境中为数不多的抗跌资产之一。 美东当地时间6月6日，新出炉的美国5月非农就业人数超预期增长。当日美元走强，黄金回落。 6月9日，A股市场黄金相关ETF纷纷回调，截至早盘收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)高位回调跌1.61%；黄 金股ETF(159562)跌1.96%，持仓股跌多涨少，招金矿业跌超6%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、白银有色、西 部黄金、老铺黄金等股纷纷走低。 广发证券研报指出，近期金价小幅回调，仍受到关税不确定性扰动，但震荡中枢在不断上移。2025年6 月至8月美国高频经济数据走弱、财政法案若超预期扩大财政赤字，叠加债务上限扩容后发债量回升， 仍将对金价形成驱动。 海通期货表示，宏观数据方面，美国制造业和服务业PMI均 ...

一、非农摘要——总数据分析 美国劳工部6月6日公布的5月非农就业数据显示，新增就业人数13.9万人，略高于市场预期的13万人，但较4月修正后的14.7万人有所放缓。失业率连续第三 个月稳定在4.2%，符合预期。薪资增速超预期，平均时薪同比增长3.9%，环比上升0.4%，显示劳动力成本压力仍存。 | | 近期数据 前次数据 最高 最低 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 失业率 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 14.9 2.5 | % | | 非农就业数据 | 139 | 147 | 4631 | -20471 千 | 从行业结构看，医疗保健、休闲酒店业贡献了主要新增岗位（12.6万个），而制造业和零售业分别减少8000和6500个职位，反映出贸易政策不确定性对实体 经济的冲击。值得注意的是，3月和4月非农数据被大幅下修，合计减少9.5万人，抵消了5月数据的积极面，显示就业市场动能边际减弱。整体而言，就业市 场仍具韧性，但增速放缓和行业分化加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。 二、小非农ADP数据公布后，对大非农的行情影响 5月ADP私营部门就业仅增3.7万人，为两年多来最低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a bullish outlook despite some short-term adjustments, supported by technical indicators and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][8][9]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $3298.53 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3294.75, and peaked at $3402.97 before closing at $3310.90, marking a weekly increase of $18.97 or 0.58% [1][3]. - The weekly price volatility was $111.04, indicating significant market activity [1]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns initially boosted gold prices, but positive U.S. employment data on Friday reduced interest rate cut expectations, leading to a price decline [3][8]. - The market is currently influenced by mixed economic data, with the potential for further adjustments in gold prices due to upcoming inflation data and ongoing trade negotiations [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold remains above the 5-10 week moving averages and key support levels, indicating a potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above $3366 [3][11]. - The monthly chart shows a bullish trend despite recent volatility, with expectations for gold to maintain high levels or strengthen further in the coming years [11][9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations for prices to reach $3500 or higher, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [5][9]. - The market will closely monitor U.S. inflation data and its impact on interest rates, which could either support or pressure gold prices [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are struggling around the $3,300 mark, indicating a potential turning point in the market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has been oscillating in a high-level range between $3,200 and $3,500 since April 22, with no new highs reached, attributed to reduced risk appetite and upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations [3]. - The 20-day moving average is flattening, suggesting that the bullish trend may be approaching a turning point, while the 60-day moving average is at $3,243, indicating that failure to rise above this level could lead to a negative mid-term trend for gold [3][4]. Group 2: Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis - Despite the current bullish sentiment towards gold, including central banks increasing their gold holdings, the technical indicators suggest a potential risk of a downturn, highlighting a divergence between fundamental and technical analyses [4]. - The market is at a critical juncture where technical analysis may provide early signals of fundamental shifts, emphasizing the need for caution despite a generally positive outlook on gold [4].

Industry Overview - The Chinese gold jewelry market is projected to reach a scale of 568.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. By 2029, it is expected to grow to 818.5 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - Franchise stores dominate the market, accounting for 72.3% of the market share in 2024, with revenues expected to grow from 411.5 billion yuan to 588.5 billion yuan by 2029 [1] - Offline self-operated stores, e-commerce, and other channels (including banks and exhibitions) generated revenues of 104 billion yuan, 42.2 billion yuan, and 11.1 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with projections for growth to 150.6 billion yuan, 67 billion yuan, and 12.4 billion yuan by 2029 [1] Company Performance - Zhou Dafu, the leading brand, has 6,211 stores and has established itself as a major player in the gold jewelry market since its founding in the late 1920s [12] - Lao Feng Xiang, a historic brand founded in 1848, reported revenues of 56.793 billion yuan in the previous year, with a year-on-year decline of 20.5% [10] - China Gold Group, ranked fourth, achieved revenues of 60.464 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.27%, while net profit decreased by 15.93% [5] - Zhou Da Sheng, ranked third, has 5,008 stores and has launched new products inspired by national treasures and international art collaborations [7] - Zhou Liu Fu, ranked fifth, has 4,106 stores and reported revenues of 5.718 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.02% [3] Market Challenges - The gold jewelry consumption in China decreased by 24.69% to 532.0 tons in the previous year due to rising gold prices, which have reached historical highs [15] - The ongoing increase in gold prices is expected to continue affecting consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior in 2025 [15]