高盛：已将2025年下半年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价预测上调至平均9890美元，高于此前的9140美 元。由于关税导致美国以外地区的铜库存减少，且中国市场需求强劲，2025年铜价将达到每吨10,050美 元的峰值。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890, up from the previous estimate of $9,140 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent increase in London copper futures prices, driven by a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and an intensifying global shortage of refined copper [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ceasefire agreement has contributed to a more stable geopolitical environment, which may positively influence copper prices [1] - The global shortage of refined copper is becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to sustained upward pressure on prices [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article raises the question of whether the recent price increase in London copper futures can be maintained in the long term [1]

铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C80000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | | - | - | - | - | - | source： 重要新闻： 南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年6月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment industry is expected to experience a domestic production rebound and an acceleration of overseas orders starting in the second half of 2024, driven by leading companies like CATL and BYD increasing their production capacity utilization [1] - The equipment update cycle is typically around five years, with a potential peak in domestic lithium battery equipment replacement expected around 2026-2027, following the last expansion peak in 2020-2021 [1] - New technologies such as composite copper foil, 4680 large cylindrical batteries, and solid-state batteries are anticipated to create additional equipment demand [1] Group 2: Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector is currently facing a bottoming out of short-term market conditions due to industry pressures from overcapacity, with a potential policy-driven capital expenditure on new technologies expected in 2025 [2] - New technologies in the silicon wafer segment include low-oxygen monocrystalline furnaces and tungsten wire diamond saws, aimed at improving silicon rod yield [2] - Innovations in the cell segment involve HJT and BC technologies, which enhance light conversion efficiency through design improvements [2] - In the module segment, advancements such as 0BB and stacked grid silver reduction technologies are set to further optimize efficiency and reduce silver paste consumption [2]

PET铜箔概念股持续走高，大东南（002263）、洪田股份（603800）涨停，英联股份（002846）涨超 8%，中一科技（301150）、东峰集团（601515）跟涨。 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （赵乃迪/ 蔡嘉豪/王礼沫 ） 2025-06-22 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【农林牧渔】"618"战报出炉，宠物消费同比高增——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250616-20250622） 25年"618"结束，宠物经济持续兑现高景气。根据京东"618"战报，超400个宠物品牌商家销售额同比增长超 100%，宠物成交用户同比增长32%、新晋养宠用户同比增长39%。 今 日 聚 焦 【有色】5月国内家用空调销量增长2.3%、产量同比下降1.8%——铜行业周报（20250616-20250620） 小结：矿端持续扰动，废铜端5月废铜国内产量、进口同步回落；需求端，5月国内空调产量低于此前预期，关 税备货效应减弱以及国内进入淡季 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 需求：本周线缆开工率环比-3pct，5月国内家用空调产量低于预期 （1）线缆：约占国内铜需求31%，线缆企业2025年6月19日当周开工率为73.26%，环比上周-3.05pct。（2）空 调：约占国内铜需求13%，据产业在线6月18日更新，2025年5月中国家用空调产量为2081.2万台，同 比-1.8%（4月预计的5月排产同比增速+9.9%）；销量2203.4万台，同比+2.3%。（3）铜棒：约占国内铜需求 4.2%，黄铜棒2025年5月开工率50.6%，环比-4.4pct、同比+0.05pct。 截至2025年6月20日，SHFE铜收盘价77990 元/吨，环比6月13日-0.03% ...

Core Viewpoint - China is facing a severe "copper shortage" despite being rich in resources, necessitating strategic responses to ensure copper supply for its industrialization process [1][5][23]. Group 1: Copper Demand and Importance - Copper is the second-best conductor of electricity and heat, making it essential for the power and telecommunications industries, with about half of the global copper supply used in these sectors [3]. - The demand for copper is increasing globally, with China being one of the fastest-growing markets for copper [3]. Group 2: Domestic Copper Resource Challenges - China's domestic copper production and consumption have ranked first globally for several years, but local copper resources are becoming increasingly scarce, leading to a "copper crisis" [5]. - From 2010 to 2020, China's copper concentrate imports surged from 2.92 million tons to 3.627 million tons, an increase of 707,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Characteristics of China's Copper Resources - China's copper resources are concentrated in the southwest, northwest, and eastern regions, but most deposits are small to medium-sized, complicating extraction efforts [16]. - The average ore grade in China is below 0.4%, significantly lower than the global average of 0.87%, which diminishes the economic viability of mining [16]. - The complex terrain where copper deposits are located leads to high extraction costs and development challenges [16]. Group 4: Strategic Responses to Copper Shortage - China has intensified overseas acquisitions of copper mines, investing over $16 billion in more than 30 copper projects globally from 2011 to 2021 [18]. - A notable acquisition is the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, purchased by China Minmetals for $7.005 billion, which is crucial for China's copper supply chain [18]. - Domestic development and technological advancements are also being prioritized, focusing on low-grade ore utilization and improving smelting processes [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The copper shortage is a significant challenge for China's modernization, but through joint development and technological innovation, progress is being made [23]. - Continued efforts in optimizing resource integration and recovery will be essential for sustainable industrial development in the future [20][23].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大股指全线收跌，上证指数下跌 0.07%，报 3359.90 点； 深证成指下跌 0.47%，报 10,005.03 点；创业板指下跌 0.83%，报 2009.89 点。A 股两市全天成交额 1.07 万亿元人民币，南向资金净买 入 15.51 亿港元。A 股两市个股普遍下跌，超 3400 只个股下跌。申 万行业方面，交通运输、食品饮料及银行行业领涨，传媒及计算机行 业跌幅居前；概念板块方面，PET 铜箔、光刻胶概念指数涨幅居前， 可燃冰、脑机接口概念指数跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨 1.26%，恒生科 技指数上涨 0.88%；美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指上涨 0.08%，报 42,206.82 点，标普 500 指数下跌 0.22%，报 5967.84 点，纳指下跌 0.51%，报 19,447.41 点。欧洲股市主要股指普遍收涨、亚太主要股 指普遍下跌。 【重要新闻】 【中国证监会就《证券公司分 ...