Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

| CE KERD | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | 人业资格号:F025 以 | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | 震荡 | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场风险偏好改善, | 金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農汤 | 百金 | | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 白银 | | | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 外挤仓行情发酵,短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存5 | | | | | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化 | 氢化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steepening of the yield curve is partly a response to the high uncertainty surrounding the global economy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey highlighted that the yield curve's steepening reflects market reactions to economic uncertainties [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of curiosity in navigating uncertainty and fear, suggesting that curiosity can provide a sense of agency and connection in chaotic times [2][9]. Group 1: Curiosity and Fear - Curiosity has increased by 1%, as it allows individuals to confront fear and uncertainty more effectively [3]. - The relationship between fear and curiosity is explored, highlighting that curiosity can help individuals cope with fear by shifting focus from anxiety to learning and growth [4][9]. Group 2: Practical Strategies - The article provides actionable strategies to maintain resilience in the face of uncertainty, such as asking better questions to break the cycle of fear [7]. - It encourages individuals to articulate what is true in the present moment, countering the tendency of fear to project into the future [8]. - Maintaining curiosity about one's fears can reveal underlying values and desires, transforming fear from a threat into a signal for deeper understanding [8]. Group 3: Staying Grounded Amid Chaos - The strategies discussed do not eliminate chaos but offer a way to remain clear-headed and connected to oneself and others during uncertain times [9]. - Choosing curiosity over control and questions over answers can help individuals stay rooted in reality and remain sensitive to future developments [9].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a significant decline in American consumers' willingness to spend on consumer electronics amid the current economic climate, with low-income groups decreasing by 3 percentage points to -18% and high-income groups dropping by 18 percentage points to -9% [1][2] Consumer Sentiment - The AlphaWise consumer survey reveals that as of June, consumer sentiment regarding the economic outlook has worsened, with spending willingness reaching a pre-tariff low. 10% of consumers expect the economy to deteriorate in the next six months, a 4 percentage point increase from May [1][2] - High-income consumers exhibit the most pronounced pessimism, with a 12 percentage point decrease in their economic outlook [1] Spending Intentions - In June, the net spending intention for consumer electronics fell by 2 percentage points to -3%, while the net spending intention for PCs dropped by 4 percentage points to -7%. Over the next six months, the net spending intention for consumer electronics is expected to decline further by 7 percentage points to -15% [2] - The decline in spending willingness is evident across both low-income and high-income groups, with high-income consumers showing a particularly sharp increase in pessimism [2] Impact of Tariffs - 33% of respondents indicated that tariffs would lead to reduced overall spending in the next three months, although this figure improved by 3 percentage points compared to May. The impact of tariffs is more pronounced among lower-income consumers, with 33% of those earning under $50,000 planning to cut spending, and 37% among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 [2] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the economic outlook for American consumers remains uncertain, predicting a more challenging market for consumer electronics over the next six months. This conclusion is supported by various data points, including consumer sentiment, spending intentions, and the impact of tariffs [2][4] Data Analysis - The report includes various charts and data, such as a direct positive correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.66) between the economic outlook and future consumer electronics spending intentions, as well as comparisons with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [4] - The findings highlight the severe challenges facing the consumer electronics market, driven by deteriorating consumer sentiment, declining spending intentions, and the effects of tariffs [4]

近期金融市场呈现复杂态势，美联储货币政策预期与地缘政治风险交织影响下，黄金价格经历了显著波动。市场对美联储降息时点的预期升温，叠加全球贸 易环境的不确定性，为贵金属市场带来了新的支撑因素。当前投资者密切关注美国经济数据表现，特别是就业市场指标对货币政策路径的指引作用。 美联储政策预期推动金价反弹动力 美元指数在2025年上半年累计下跌10.8%，创下1973年以来同期最差表现。这一疲软态势与特朗普贸易政策的不确定性密切相关，同时总统对美联储降息的 持续施压也给美元造成下行压力。随着美元走软，黄金重新回升至3300美元上方，显示出贵金属对货币政策预期变化的敏感性。 市场当前预期美国下半年将实施三次降息，这种预期为黄金等非生息资产提供了重要支撑。美联储官员近期表态显示，如果经济数据符合预期且通胀继续向 2%目标回落，逐步转向更为中性的政策立场可能是合适的。投资者特别关注即将公布的美国就业数据，若数据走弱将进一步提升7月降息概率，金价或迎来 补涨机会。 当前市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，中东局势也步入相对缓和期。然而，7月关税暂缓截止期临近，市场需要警惕相关炒作再度升温的可能性。美债 信用危机背景下的去美元化趋 ...

Group 1 - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened, leading to a new pricing framework for gold [1][3] - Prior to 2022, the relationship between gold prices and real interest rates was stable, with rising real rates leading to decreased demand for gold and vice versa [3] - Since 2022, gold prices have remained strong even in the context of significant increases in real interest rates, challenging the traditional pricing logic [3] Group 2 - Central bank gold purchases have become a significant driver of gold prices, with over 1000 tons bought in the past three years, double the average from 2010 to 2021 [4] - Concerns over the dominance of the US dollar and the need for diversified asset allocation have led to increased central bank demand for gold [4] - The uncertainty in the monetary system is reshaping gold's role as a store of value, with investors viewing it as a core asset to mitigate monetary risks rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3 - The importance of gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios has increased amid global economic uncertainty [4] - Institutional investors are beginning to see gold as a necessary long-term allocation rather than a short-term trading asset, providing ongoing support for gold prices [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

智通财经APP获悉，美元指数今年上半年大幅下挫，交出自1973年理查德·尼克松执政以来最糟糕的半 年度表现。截至目前，美元指数年内累计跌幅约10.8%，仅次于1973年上半年14.8%的跌幅。唐纳德·特 朗普总统的贸易与关税政策不确定性，叠加其推动美联储降息的举措，成为压制美元的主要因素。 近期，市场对美国贸易协议的乐观预期增强了人们对于美联储提前降息的预期。本周一，周一，美元兑 欧元汇率跌至近四年来的最低点。美元兑英镑的汇率也跌至四年低点，美元兑瑞士法郎的汇率则跌至逾 十年来的最低点。 纽约外汇策略师BrendanFagan指出，在跌至多年新低后，美元可能面临更多下行压力，美联储的鸽派预 期、疲软的经济数据以及政策不确定性升温，均对美元构成沉重打击。 投资者认为，美联储主席鲍威尔上周向美国国会所做的证词显示其态度较为温和。根据芝加哥商品交易 所集团的"美联储观察"工具显示，预计到9月美联储利率至少下调25个基点的预期比例已升至92.4%，而 一周前这一比例约为70%。 Pepperstone研究主管ChrisWeston在给客户的一份报告中写道："市场定价显示，9月份肯定会降 息。"Weston表示，美国月 ...

受美元走软提振，6月30日国际金价探底回升，尾盘重上3300美元／盎司关口。 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘上涨28.9美元，收于每盎司 3315美元，涨幅为0.88%。 早盘电子交易时段，金价一度触及3250.5美元的逾一个月低点。 盘面上看，尽管近期地缘和贸易局势缓和削弱了黄金的避险需求，但从6月整体表现来看，纽约金价仍 较5月末收盘价上涨了0.06%，为连续第六个月收涨，尽管涨幅显著收窄。 在部分分析机构看来，央行购金需求、地缘政治不确定性和货币政策宽松，决定了金价的上行态势仍将 延续。但短期内，市场仍在关注本周美国非农就业数据对美联储降息的指引。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普再度对美联储"发难"。当地时间6月30日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文 表示，"'太迟先生'美联储主席鲍威尔和整个委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻。"特朗普先前因美联储 未按自己要求降息而频繁经由社交媒体炮轰鲍威尔，一度威胁要解除其职务。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨16.5美分，报每盎司36.330美元，涨幅为0.46%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分析认为，尽管当天美股三大股指集体走高 ...