Core Viewpoint - The meeting between the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner focused on discussions regarding the global economic and financial situation, China's macroeconomic policies, and the development of financial markets [1] Group 1 - The meeting took place on May 20, 2025, highlighting ongoing international dialogue on economic issues [1] - Pan Gongsheng and Timothy Geithner exchanged views on the current state of the global economy and financial markets [1] - The discussions included insights into China's macroeconomic policy direction and its implications for financial market development [1]

2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市盛大召开。17日下午，主题论坛三"全球 经济碎片化的挑战"顺利举办。哈萨克斯坦前副总理、哈萨克斯坦央行前行长海拉特·克里姆别托夫， 中国金融学会副会长、国家开发银行原行长欧阳卫民，克罗地亚国家银行行长鲍里斯·武伊契奇，纽 约大学斯特恩商学院荣休教授鲁里埃尔·罗比尼参与讨论并发表观点。清华大学五道口金融学院副院 长、金融学讲席教授张晓燕主持论坛。 海拉特・克里姆别托夫 哈萨克斯坦前副总理 哈萨克斯坦央行前行长 海拉特·克里姆别托夫表示，当前全球经济正处于高度不确定性中，这对政策制定者提出了极 大挑战。曾经被广泛接受的经济规则和理论如今不再适用，未来图景尚不清晰。他指出，当前 的形势在某种程度上类似于20世纪30年代美国 大萧条初期。此外，国际争端的处理方式 也日益趋向商业化，更像是企业间的谈判，而非国家间的战略协商，使得全球互动 逐渐演变为一种以交易为导向的关系。 尽管面临种种挑战，他认为，全球格局正在 逐 步 向 区 域 化 演 变 ， 这 一 趋 势 有 可 能 为 中 亚 国 家 带 来 新 的 发 展 机 遇 。 在 这 一 背 景 下， ...

Group 1 - UBS emphasizes the profound impact of the recent US tariff measures on the global economy, predicting a reduction in US real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025 and an increase in inflation by 2 basis points [1] - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 growth expectations lowered by 40 basis points to 2.6% and 2026 expectations down by 20 basis points to 2.5% [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on long-term US Treasuries, suggesting a long position in 30-year US Treasuries relative to swap rates, while also positioning in US 10-year breakeven inflation rates and 5-year euro inflation swaps [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, UBS suggests buying during periods of declining volatility rather than directly shorting the US dollar, based on the belief that the dollar index is undervalued [2] - For emerging market currencies, UBS recommends selective exposure to commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, reflecting confidence in regional economic resilience [2] - UBS sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5300 points, indicating a potential upside of 7%, while cautioning that the market is entering a high valuation zone [2] Group 3 - UBS advises reallocating funds to local currency debt in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, and Singapore instead of directly investing in stocks, due to the current interest rate environment [3] - UBS's growth forecast for Asian emerging markets is 0.3 percentage points higher than the IMF's prediction, influencing its asset allocation strategy [3] - UBS constructs a multi-layered defense system for risk hedging, recommending maintaining gold positions with a target price of $3500 per ounce, reflecting a focus on geopolitical risk premiums [3] Group 4 - UBS's strategy report reflects a risk management-oriented allocation approach, focusing on duration management, volatility trading, and regional selection amid global economic uncertainty [4] - The effectiveness of UBS's allocation framework will depend on the intensity of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy paths, and the actual resilience of the global economy [4]

本周，七国集团(G7)成员国财政部长齐聚加拿大落基山脉度假小镇班夫，展开为期三天的会议。 "没人期待此次会议能促成美方放宽关税政策，"大西洋理事会地缘经济中心副主任利奇菲尔德表 示，"但其他国家可能借机提醒美方，他们既是盟友，也在遭受美国施压。" 贝森特则表示，他将在会议中推动G7集团"回归基本原则"，聚焦解决全球经济失衡与非市场行为问 题。他长期批评中国出口主导的经济政策，指其产能过剩和补贴行为扰乱全球市场。 有知情人士透露，部分G7部长将在与贝森特的双边会谈中推动就美方关税政策展开进一步谈判。美日 之间的谈判已进入高级阶段，贝森特警告称，若谈判缺乏诚意，美国将维持甚至提升"对等"关税税率， 日本目前面临的税率为24%。 独立金融智库OMFIF美国主席、前美国财政部官员索贝尔指出，贝森特被视为川普贸易议程中的"温和 派"，G7各国希望他能在内部推动更务实的贸易政策。 作为这次会议东道主的加拿大，正努力促成一份联合声明，为6月将在卡纳纳斯基斯举行的G7领导人峰 会打下基础。草案预计将涵盖多个议题，包括对乌克兰的坚定支持，以及对俄罗斯加强制裁。 尽管在美国总统川普的贸易政策问题上分歧明显，但是东道主加拿大仍努力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, expressed concerns that the market's interest rate path reflects worries about severe adverse consequences for the global economy. There is uncertainty regarding the initiation of a long-term continuous rate-cutting cycle and the ultimate level of cash rates, with a rejection of the current market pricing expectations for interest rates [1] Group 1 - The market's interest rate path indicates significant concerns about the global economy [1] - There is uncertainty about whether a long-term continuous rate-cutting mode will be initiated [1] - The final level of cash rates remains unclear, and the current market pricing expectations are not endorsed [1]

澳洲联储：全球贸易战对经济构成重大下行风险 金十数据5月20日讯，澳洲联储周二表示，由于受全球贸易紧张局势的连带影响，通胀率将下降，而失 业率将上升，即使假设降息幅度达到市场预期。澳洲联储在周二发布的季度货币政策声明中称，核心通 胀的降温速度略快于预期，服务业明显放缓。该央行还警告称，美国总统特朗普关税政策将拖低全球经 济增长率，并且总体上有助降低澳洲通胀率。 ...

澳洲联储：维持低且稳定的通胀是首要之务，过去三个月全球经济不确定性增加，金融市场波动有段时 间大幅加剧，委员会判断通胀面临的风险已较平衡。 ...

澳洲联储：过去三个月全球经济不确定性增加，金融市场波动有段时间大幅加剧。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if trade tensions ease rapidly, global economic growth may accelerate, which could lead to a reduction in the extent of domestic interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that the current trade environment is a significant factor influencing economic conditions [1] - A potential easing of trade tensions could positively impact both domestic and global economic outlooks [1] - The statement indicates a cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy adjustments based on external economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to adopt a dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in the upcoming policy meeting, marking the first cut since February [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The RBA is likely to indicate that inflation indicators have returned to target levels, but due to global economic uncertainties and a robust Australian job market, a series of rate cuts is unlikely [1] - The option of a 50 basis point cut does not seem to be under consideration in the current calm financial market environment [1] Economic Indicators - The RBA's decision will be influenced by the active employment market and steady wage growth amidst weak productivity [1]