当地时间6月26日，特朗普在白宫的公开演讲中难掩兴奋，宣称美国已于6月25日和中国签署了贸易协议，双方达成了数项令他 满意的交易。而美国商务部长卢特尼克也出面证实，中美两国已敲定并签署了贸易谅解协议，该协议整合了此前日内瓦贸易谈 判中列出的所有条款，其中，美国最为关注的便是稀土相关内容。按照美方的说法，只要中国向美国提供稀土，美方就会撤销 对中国的贸易反制措施。 据报道，在国际政治经济的风云变幻中，中美关系一直是全球瞩目的焦点。近期，中美之间的一系列互动，尤其是在经贸领域 的新动态，再次吸引了世界的目光。特朗普突然宣布的喜讯，似乎预示着中美在稀土问题上有了新的进展。那么，美国心心念 念的稀土，真的有着落了吗？ 面对国内军工产业和汽车工业等因稀土短缺而受到的冲击，特朗普政府倍感压力。在这种情况下，中美两国元首的共识为双方 经贸团队的谈判指明了方向。6月9日至10日，中美双方经贸团队在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和 巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。之后，双方团队保持密切沟通。6月27日，中国商务部新闻发言人表示，经批 准，双方进一步确认了框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 博弈央行买债的囚徒困境 ——债市机构行为周报（6 月第 5 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-29 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 当前机构行为特征以及博弈央行买债的囚徒困境 跨季时点债市震荡，短端表现更优。6 月最后一周，债市整体表现震 荡，短端更优，10 年国债到期收益率维持横盘，1 年、3 年到期收益率 出现 1-2bp 的小幅下行。 债市投资者在当前时点面临囚徒困境。6 月末是一个较为敏感的时间节 点，一方面是跨季，另一方面公募基金有冲排名/规模的诉求，从短期的 可博弈因素来看，仍有央行是否开启买债以及 6 月 PMI 数据仍未公布， 对于投资者而言，实际面临一定的囚徒困境： 从近期的机构行为特征看，大行 ...

Group 1 - Rare earth elements are essential for modern technology, including smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment, making them crucial for both economic and national security [1] - China controls approximately 37% of global rare earth reserves and dominates 80% of processing capacity, particularly in heavy rare earth refining technology [2][5] - In April 2025, China announced strict export controls on rare earth elements, transitioning from a quota system to a more stringent licensing requirement for each export batch [2][5] Group 2 - The Chinese government aims to safeguard national security and public interest through these export controls, as rare earth elements are vital for sensitive military and industrial applications [5] - Following the announcement, rare earth prices surged dramatically, with dysprosium oxide reaching $850 per kilogram and terbium exceeding $3000, reflecting a price increase of over 210% [5] - The U.S. defense sector, heavily reliant on rare earths, expressed significant concern over potential supply disruptions affecting high-tech and military industries [5][6] Group 3 - In response to China's actions, the U.S. government declared a "national emergency" regarding its dependence on critical minerals and initiated efforts to boost domestic rare earth mining [6][8] - The U.S. is attempting to form a rare earth alliance with allies like Japan and Australia to reduce reliance on China, but faces significant challenges in matching China's processing capabilities [8][9] - The geopolitical implications of the rare earth situation highlight the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, with both nations leveraging their resources in the tech and military sectors [9][11] Group 4 - Recent U.S.-China trade talks indicate a desire to avoid a complete breakdown in relations, yet the rare earth issue remains a contentious topic [11] - The long-term outlook suggests that the rare earth dilemma could lead to a reshaping of global supply chains, as countries seek alternative sources to mitigate dependence on China [11]

美联储的独立性并非写在宪法中，而是源于国会赋予的权力以及其独特的结构：理事会成员任期长达14 年，主席和副主席任期4年，且不能因政策分歧而被总统随意罢免。这种设计旨在让美联储能够超越短 期政治周期，专注于长期经济健康。 然而，总统拥有提名美联储理事和主席的权力，这是总统影响美联储的最重要、最直接的途径。通过选 择具有特定经济哲学或倾向的候选人，总统可以在一定程度上塑造美联储未来的政策方向。这种任命权 是总统在这场博弈中的首要筹码。 二、 历史上的经典案例：从隐秘施压到公开对抗 历史长河中，美联储与总统的博弈留下了许多著名的注脚： 二战后的"财政部-美联储协议"（1951年）： 这是美联储争取独立性的一个关键时刻。二战期 间，美联储为了帮助政府融资，承诺将国债利率维持在低位。战后，通货膨胀压力显现，美联储 希望提高利率，但财政部和杜鲁门总统反对，担心增加政府债务成本。经过激烈的幕后谈判和国 会介入，双方达成协议，美联储摆脱了为政府债务融资而牺牲物价稳定的束缚，重新获得了货币 政策的自主权。这标志着美联储独立性迈出了重要一步。 约翰逊总统与小威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁主席（1960年代）： 约翰逊总统希望通过扩张性财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of ideological and political education (思政课) in shaping the values and beliefs of the younger generation, highlighting innovative teaching methods and the integration of historical context into modern education [2][15]. Group 1: Ideological and Political Education - The Chinese Communist Party has historically valued the construction of ideological and political education, which influences the ideals and life choices of generations of youth [2]. - Recent years have seen schools enriching their teaching content and effectively implementing the fundamental task of fostering moral integrity [2][5]. - The integration of moral education into various subjects, including music, science, and physical education, is a key focus for schools [5][10]. Group 2: Innovative Teaching Methods - Schools are adopting innovative approaches to make ideological education more engaging, such as using historical sites and figures to create a dialogue with students [4][11]. - The use of technology, like AI-generated audio in music classes, is being employed to enhance the learning experience [4]. - Teachers are encouraged to incorporate current events and discussions into their lessons to keep the content relevant and engaging for students [6][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and National Identity - Historical events, such as the Anti-Japanese War, are being integrated into the curriculum to instill a sense of national identity and responsibility among students [11][12]. - Schools are utilizing local historical sites as educational resources, allowing students to connect with their heritage and understand the significance of past struggles [11][14]. - The narrative of resilience and patriotism is emphasized through various teaching methods, including storytelling and experiential learning [12][14].

Group 1 - The U.S. is seeking China's assistance to persuade Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting a shift in roles where China is now being asked to intervene rather than being the proactive party in dealings with Iran [1][3] - A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to skyrocketing global oil prices, significantly impacting countries like China and Japan that rely on this shipping route for oil imports [1][3] - China's dependence on Iranian oil has decreased, with Russia now being the primary supplier, as Iran accounts for less than 10% of China's energy imports [1][3] Group 2 - Iran faces a dilemma as it relies on oil exports for its economy, and blocking the Strait could lead to severe economic consequences for itself [3][5] - Countries like India are under pressure from rising oil prices and must seek alternative oil sources, while shipping companies in Southeast Asia are anxious about potential disruptions [3][5] - China is in a difficult position, needing to balance its relationship with Iran while also managing U.S. expectations, having diversified its energy sources in recent years [3][5] Group 3 - Russia is benefiting from the situation, as U.S. sanctions on Iran have led to increased cooperation between Iran and Russia, allowing Russia to raise oil prices significantly [5][6] - The general public is feeling the impact of rising oil prices, leading to increased costs of living and potential job losses due to higher operational costs for businesses [5][6] - The U.S. government is caught in a dilemma, recognizing the limited effectiveness of sanctions on Iran while facing domestic opposition to military escalation in the region [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, highlighting China's firm opposition to U.S. tariffs and the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are characterized as a gamble, with a sudden increase of 10% tariffs on all trade partners and a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, aiming to reshape global trade rules through unilateral actions [4]. - The U.S. strategy involves a "divide and conquer" approach, attempting to isolate trade partners and force them into unequal agreements, as evidenced by the announcement of potential agreements with select countries while sidelining others [4][6]. - The European Union faces a dilemma, with leaders warning against accepting unequal agreements while preparing for potential high tariffs [4]. Group 2: China’s Response and Strategy - China has established a counter-strategy, including significant price reductions in semiconductor manufacturing and strengthening regional trade agreements, such as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area [9]. - The Chinese government emphasizes its control over strategic resources, particularly rare earth elements, which are crucial for U.S. military applications, indicating a strategic leverage point in the trade conflict [7][11]. - China's response mechanisms have evolved, with quicker reaction times and a more sophisticated array of countermeasures, including tariffs and legal actions through the WTO [11]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights the shifting trade landscape, with ASEAN's trade with China surpassing that with the U.S., indicating a realignment of global trade relationships [9]. - The establishment of a cross-border payment system in RMB and various currency swap agreements signifies China's efforts to enhance its financial influence globally [9]. - The ongoing negotiations and strategic maneuvers reflect a broader struggle for dominance in global trade, with both nations seeking to secure their interests amid rising tensions [3][9].

Core Insights - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. on rare earth cooperation highlights a strategic exchange rather than a unilateral concession, with China issuing temporary export licenses to U.S. automakers in exchange for reduced technology export restrictions from the U.S. [2] - The U.S. military's heavy reliance on rare earth elements is critical, with 87% of its main battle equipment depending on these materials, indicating a severe vulnerability in the supply chain [4] - China's strategic move to establish a dual barrier of technology and regulatory standards in the rare earth sector positions it as a rule-maker in the global market, enhancing its leverage in future negotiations [6][7] Group 1: Strategic Dynamics - The temporary export licenses issued by China to companies like General Motors and Ford are part of a broader strategy to secure high-end technology while maintaining its position as a key player in the rare earth market [2] - The U.S. has invested $50 billion to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, but it may take 10-15 years to achieve self-sufficiency, highlighting a significant strategic miscalculation [4] - China's establishment of a tracking system and zero-carbon certification for rare earths reflects its ambition to transition from being a mere exporter to a global standard-setter [7] Group 2: Global Implications - The dependency of U.S. industries on Chinese rare earths has prompted Europe and Japan to form alliances to diversify their supply chains, yet many European automakers still seek limited engagement with China [6] - The competition for rare earths has evolved into a battle for standards, with China leveraging its dominant production and refining capabilities to create a closed-loop system for resource management [6][8] - The ongoing rare earth competition is a microcosm of broader resource conflicts, with China's integrated strategy transforming rare earths into a pivotal factor in shaping global industrial dynamics [8]

Core Insights - The ongoing competition between China and the United States over rare earth elements (REE) has intensified, with China employing strategic measures to control its supply and protect its technological advantages [5][11][28] Group 1: Strategic Measures - China has implemented a command requiring domestic rare earth experts to surrender their passports, effectively restricting their ability to leave the country and preventing foreign entities from acquiring critical technical knowledge [11][13] - The export volume of rare earth magnets from China has significantly decreased, attributed to stricter approval processes for export licenses, which now require detailed explanations of the intended use and final destination of the products [20][22] Group 2: U.S. Response and Challenges - U.S. officials express concern over the dependency on Chinese rare earths, with statements indicating that achieving independence from this reliance could take at least a generation [15][19] - The U.S. lacks a complete supply chain for rare earths, facing challenges in mining, processing, and production, which complicates efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies [16][17] Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - China dominates the global rare earth market, producing 60% of the world's supply and refining 90% of it, giving it a significant leverage in international trade [16] - The complexity of rare earth separation technology poses a barrier for Western countries attempting to replicate China's capabilities, as they struggle to find experienced personnel and effective operational methods [22][24] Group 4: Implications for National Security - The strategic importance of rare earths is underscored by their critical role in advanced military applications, with potential supply disruptions posing serious risks to national security for countries reliant on these materials [9][18] - The illicit export of rare earths has emerged as a concern, with reports of sophisticated smuggling operations aimed at circumventing Chinese export controls [19][20]

稀土之争，正成为中美科技博弈的焦点。近日，中国祭出稀土管控"新招"，直指核心技术人才，而大洋彼岸的特朗普政府则紧急调整对华政 策，释放出微妙信号。 6月25日，《华尔街日报》独家披露，中国要求国内稀土企业上报技术人员的详细信息，包括专业背景、教育经历及个人信息，旨在建立"稀土 人才名录"，防止关键技术外流。这一举措被外媒视为中国稀土管控的进一步升级——从资源、技术到人才，中国正构筑全方位防线。与此同 时，特朗普政府在对华关税战中突然"松口"，允许美国企业向中国出口乙烷，但附加"未经许可不得卸货"的苛刻条件。这一举动被解读为美国 在稀土问题上的一次战略妥协。 稀土（资料图） 中国的稀土管控早已不是新鲜事。从2023年12月将稀土提炼、加工技术列入禁止出口目录，到2024年对中重稀土实施出口许可管理，再到建立 稀土产品追踪系统，中国的政策步步收紧。如今，新规将管控范围扩大至"人"，直击西方国家的痛点——技术人才。外媒承认，中国在稀土磁 铁生产领域的技术优势难以撼动，而稀土加工设备的先进性更是全球领先。正因如此，西方国家长期觊觎中国技术，甚至不惜通过"高薪挖 角"窃取机密。 稀土（资料图） 特朗普政府的反应耐人寻味 ...