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日本央行行长植田和男:日本经济正在温和复苏,尽管存在一些弱点。
news flash· 2025-06-20 06:42
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, despite some weaknesses [1] Economic Recovery - The Japanese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, indicating positive growth trends [1] - There are existing weaknesses that could impact the overall economic performance [1]
帮主郑重午评:沪指窄幅震荡半日微涨,固态电池领涨,这些板块需注意!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 03:56
各位老铁,我是帮主郑重。咱来聊聊今天上午的股市行情,看看大盘这半天怎么走的,哪些板块在冒头,哪些又在调整。 今儿早盘三大指数有点"各玩各的"意思,截至午盘,沪指就像个悠闲的散步者,慢悠悠涨了0.08%,深成指则是小幅下跌0.19%,创业板指跌得稍多些,跌 了0.56%,北证50也跟着跌了0.14%。再看成交量,全市场半日成交额6863亿元,比上一个交易日缩量了1196亿元,量能萎缩说明市场这会儿情绪还是比较 谨慎的。而且个股表现有点惨,超3200只股票飘绿,典型的"赚指数不赚钱"行情。 白酒板块今儿算是来了波反弹,皇台酒业涨停,迎驾贡酒、金种子酒涨超5%,茅台、五粮液也小幅上涨。白酒这阵子其实挺憋屈的,一直趴在地上磨底, 今儿反弹可能跟近期消费数据有点回暖迹象有关,加上板块估值也到了相对较低的位置,资金可能觉得有一定的性价比了。但白酒的长期逻辑还是得看消费 复苏的持续性,中长线投资的话,得盯着业绩能不能跟上。 再看看下跌的板块。脑机接口板块今儿调整得比较厉害,爱朋医疗跌超10%,新智认知、创新医疗也跟着走低。这板块前阵子炒得挺火,可能是涨多了需要 消化一下获利盘,加上短期可能没啥新的催化消息,资金就先撤了。还 ...
以旧换新政策有效激发消费潜力,消费ETF嘉实(512600)上涨1.04%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 03:16
截至2025年6月20日 10:08,中证主要消费指数强势上涨1.12%,成分股燕京啤酒上涨5.88%,古井贡酒上涨3.86%,山西汾酒上涨3.45%,百润股份、海大集 团等个股跟涨。消费ETF嘉实(512600)上涨1.04%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 0.70% | 10.54% | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | 0.87% | 9.91% | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 1.30% | 9.16% | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 0.59% | 6.99% | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 3.45% | 6.91% | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 2.41% | 6.30% | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | 0.12% | 5.86% | | 603288 | 海天味业 | 0.75% | 4.47% | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | -0.04% | 3.41% | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | 1.19% | 3.03% | 流动 ...
湘财证券晨会纪要-20250620
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-06-20 02:58
晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 111 号 主 题:对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间:2025 年 6 月 20 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式:腾讯会议 参会人员:曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 王逸奇 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录:许雯 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1、中药行业(许雯) 核心要点: 市场表现:上周中药Ⅱ下跌0.32%,医药板块涨跌互现,中药表现相对较弱 根据wind数据,上周(2025.06.08-2025.06.14)医药生物报收7895.79点,上涨1.4%;中 药Ⅱ报收6410.24点,下跌0.32%;化学制药报收12686.19点,上涨3.53%;生物制品报收6212.51 点,上涨0.33%;医药商业报收5099.4点,下跌0.83%;医疗器械报收6147.18点,下跌0.52%; 医疗服务报收5403.37点,上涨2.42%。医药二级子板块涨跌互现,化学制药表现最好,中药 表现相对较弱。 从公司表现来看,根据wind数据, ...
西南期货早间评论-20250620
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:52
早间评论 地址: 电话: 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层; 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001; 021-50591197 西南期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 20 日星期五 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | 4 | | --- | --- | | 股指: | 4 | | 贵金属: 5 | | | 螺纹、热卷: 6 | | | 铁矿石: 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭: 7 | | | 铁合金: 7 | | | 原油: | 8 | | 燃料油: 8 | | | 合成橡胶: 9 | | | 天然橡胶: 9 | | | PVC: | 10 | | 尿素: | 10 | | 对二甲苯 | PX: 11 | | PTA: | 11 | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | 短纤: | 12 | | 瓶片: | 13 | | 纯碱: | 13 | | 玻璃: | 14 | | 烧碱: | 14 | | 纸浆: | 15 | | 铜: | 16 | | --- | --- | | 锡: | 17 | | 镍: | 17 | | | 豆油、豆粕: 17 | | | 棕 ...
国泰海通|宏观:滞胀担忧增加,美联储按兵不动——2025年6月美联储议息会议点评
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-19 14:01
报告导读: 2025年6月美联储继续按兵不动,但是滞胀预期加剧,美联储货币政策等待 情绪浓厚,我们提示降息预期存在进一步收窄的风险,短期可能进入滞胀交易,复苏交 易要到下半年减税法案、债务上限提高等陆续落地。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 短期美国通胀数据尚未明显反映关税影响,预计后续通胀上行持续掣肘降息,警惕降息预期进一步收窄。 后续美国通胀中枢大概率会进一步抬升,一方面关税对于美国通胀的影响尚未体现出来,主要是由于前期 抢进口积累了大量的库存,随着库存的逐渐消耗,关税对价格的影响将逐渐体现出来;二是中东问题短期 难见缓和,导致石油等大宗商品价格上升,从而对后续通胀构成更大威胁。当前美联储和美国联邦基金利 率期货市场均预期年内2次降息。如果随着新一轮减税法案落地,美国经济受到相对提振,同时通胀难以 下行,后续降息预期可能会进一步收窄,我们提示,警惕全年不降息的风险。 报告名称: 滞胀担忧增加,美联储按兵不动——2025年6月美联储议息会议点评 报告日期:2025.06.19 报告作者: 梁中华 (分析师),登记编号: S0880525040019 汪浩 (分析师),登记编号: S0880 ...
点评 | 周大福:战略调整行之有效FY25业绩超预期,看好行业逐步复苏下的龙头价值
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 13:57
Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 performance exceeded expectations due to effective strategic adjustments, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the industry, highlighting the value of leading companies [2][4]. Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was HKD 89.66 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a decline of 18.4% in the first half and 15.1% in the second half [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.92 billion, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, with the first half down 44.4% and the second half up 73.8% [3]. - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, with a payout ratio of 87.8% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region showed declines: Mainland direct sales down 18.2%, franchise sales down 15.0%, and Hong Kong/Macau down 20.6% [2]. - The number of stores in Mainland China decreased by 896 to 6,274, with same-store sales down 19.4% for direct stores and 13.9% for franchises [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from gold by weight decreased by 29.4%, while revenue from priced gold increased by 105.5%, and jewelry embedding revenue fell by 13.8% [2]. - Priced gold products accounted for 18.1% of gold product revenue, with significant sales from the Heritage and Palace Museum series exceeding HKD 4 billion each [2]. Margin and Profitability - Gross margin improved to 29.5%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and product transformation strategies [3]. - Operating profit margin was 16.4%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Trends - Since April 2024, gold prices have been rising, with consumer confidence in gold's long-term value increasing due to international conflicts [3]. - The retail performance in April and May 2025 showed a slight decline of 1.7% year-on-year, with Mainland China down 2.9% and Hong Kong/Macau up 6.3% [3]. Management Guidance - Management is cautiously optimistic, projecting mid-single-digit growth for same-store sales in FY26 for both Mainland and Hong Kong/Macau [4]. - Expected gross margin decline of 0.8-1.2 percentage points due to last year's gold price benefits, but a steady increase is anticipated when excluding gold price impacts [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on brand and product-driven growth, with plans to open 20 new image stores and launch a high-end jewelry series [4]. - Projected net profits for FY26 and FY27 are HKD 8.39 billion and HKD 9.28 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 42% and 11% respectively [4].
传统消费静待东风!消费ETF(159928)再度回调,成交额超2亿元!机构:酒类待筑底拐点,关注超跌机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 10:18
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Consumption ETF (159928) dropping by 0.88% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 200 million yuan, leading its category with a total scale of over 12.2 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Consumption ETF (159928) saw most of its top ten constituent stocks decline, including Haidilao falling over 3% and Dongpeng Beverage dropping over 1% [3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the Consumption ETF account for over 67% of its weight, with four leading liquor stocks making up 31% and a major pig farming company accounting for 14% [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Zheshang Securities suggests that recent policies may have a temporary impact on liquor consumption, predicting a slowdown in the expected recovery for Q2, with the liquor sector still in a bottoming phase [4]. - Western Securities notes that the food and beverage sector has seen significant declines, primarily due to falling liquor prices and negative sentiment spreading to other alcoholic beverages and the restaurant supply chain [4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, highlighting four sectors to watch: liquor, snacks and beverages, dairy products, and the restaurant chain and beer sectors [4].
日本央行前首席经济学家:若美关税不松绑,今年难加息!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-19 09:36
日本央行前首席经济学家龟田清作(Seisaku Kameda)表示,除非美国关税问题出现戏剧性的积极转 折,使其能够推翻5月发布的悲观经济预测,否则该央行今年可能推迟加息。 周二,日本央行维持利率不变,并决定明年放缓资产负债表缩减步伐。中东冲突升级与美国关税使其维 持谨慎政策轨迹。尽管行长植田和男已暗示准备继续加息,但特朗普政府的全面关税令再次加息的决策 复杂化。 由于丰田等车企受美全面关税冲击,5月日本出口八年来首次下滑。美国至今未与日本达成贸易协议, 这可能对其脆弱的经济复苏施加更多压力。 机构调查显示,多数经济学家预计日本央行下次25个基点的加息将在2026年初。 贸易谈判决定政策转向,下次加息或需等到明年? 龟田称,鉴于贸易谈判缺乏进展且缺乏数据评估关税影响,日本央行在7月31日的下一份展望报告中不 太可能大幅修正增长和物价预测。"若美关税局势出现重大积极变化,日本央行会在7月报告中纳入考 量,"他表示,"否则日本央行可能难以上调对2026财年的悲观通胀预期,而这是下次加息时机的关 键。" 根据5月1日的预测,日本央行预计截至2026年3月的财年核心消费者通胀率达2.2%,次年放缓至1.7%。 在5月 ...