| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏强 | 宏观面改善，油价反弹偏强。中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展；美国制裁与伊朗有业务往 | | | | 来的部分船只与炼厂；OPEC+加速扩产，油价上行动力不足。SC【470-485】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 油价反弹走强，成本端提振。上游原油波动加剧，OPEC+增产利空释放后，地缘政治扰 | | | | 动，油价反弹，自身基本面相对偏空，库存累库，下游开工下降。PG【4340-4400】 | | L | 偏弱 | 停车比例上升，需求逐步转淡，供需双弱，产业链累库压力显现，震荡偏弱。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，逢高偏空。L【6900-7000】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 需求淡季，5 月装置计划检修量偏少，基本面上行乏力，震荡偏弱。中长期，装置投产压 | | | | 力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【6900-7000】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 注册日期延长，仓单持续增加，开工 4 连增，上中游累库，出口存转弱预期，基本面暂 | | | | 无上行驱动，盘面偏弱 ...

[Table_Info1] 国防军工 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-11 $$\psi\to\pm\psi$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 ——军工 AI 行业深度报告 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] AI 重塑未来战争，全球军事智能化趋势凸显。俄乌冲突被《时代周刊》 定义为"人工智能实战元年"，其显著特征是 AI 系统对战场态势的实时解 析能力——以 Palantir 为代表的数据分析平台将情报处理周期从数月压 缩至分钟级，这种技术代差直接改写了传统战争的胜负逻辑。值得注意 的是，中国 DeepSeek 等新兴 AI 力量通过算法创新正打破技术垄断，其 低成本、高效率的军事应用场景开发，已对全球军事技术格局形成冲击。 AI 技术的军事化应用已成为全球大国战略博弈的核心领域。各国围绕算 法优势、装备智能化、作战形态创新展开激烈竞争，推动军工体系向数 据驱动和自主决策方向加速重构。美军将人工智能视为推动"第三次抵 消战略"的核心驱动力和赢得大国高端战争的关键，推出"联合战争概 念"以指导智能化战争能力开发。我国发布新修订的《军 ...

Group 1: Historical Context and Significance - Xi Jinping's visit to Russia marks the 11th since he became president, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in the Great Patriotic War [4][9] - The historical ties between China and Russia are emphasized through shared sacrifices during World War II, highlighting mutual support and cooperation [6][7] - The establishment of the International Anti-Japanese Aviation Martyrs Memorial Hall in Nanjing serves as a testament to the joint efforts of Chinese and Soviet forces during the war [7] Group 2: Diplomatic Engagements - During the meeting with President Putin, Xi Jinping underscored the importance of continuing to develop and deepen Sino-Russian relations as a legacy of friendship [7][8] - A joint statement was signed to further deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia, addressing global strategic stability and international law [11] - Over 20 bilateral cooperation documents were exchanged, covering various fields including global strategic stability and international law [11] Group 3: Cultural Exchange and Cooperation - The years 2024-2025 have been designated as "China-Russia Cultural Years," featuring numerous cultural exchange events to strengthen ties [12] - A humanistic exchange event commemorating the victories in the Anti-Japanese War and the Great Patriotic War was held in Moscow, emphasizing the importance of cultural understanding [13][15] - Xi Jinping highlighted the significance of humanistic exchanges in enhancing mutual understanding and solidifying the social foundation for bilateral relations [13]

Core Points - The celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War was held in Moscow, attended by leaders from over 20 countries, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, emphasizing a commitment to a brighter future for humanity [1][3][5] - The event served as a reminder of the sacrifices made during the war and the importance of unity in defending peace and justice, with President Putin highlighting the contributions of the Soviet Union and China in the fight against fascism [3][4][10] - The ceremony included a military parade featuring troops from China and other nations, symbolizing international solidarity and the enduring friendship between China and Russia [5][6][7] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The event commemorated the historical significance of the victory over fascism, recalling the sacrifices made by millions during World War II, particularly by the Soviet Union and China [4][9] - Xi Jinping's article prior to the event reflected on the importance of remembering history and defending peace [4] International Relations - The celebration highlighted the strong ties between China and Russia, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to maintaining the outcomes of World War II and promoting a correct understanding of history [7][10] - The leaders emphasized the need for cooperation in addressing global challenges, advocating for a multipolar world and inclusive economic globalization [10][11] Cultural Significance - The event featured traditional military music and a display of military might, showcasing the spirit and determination of the participating nations [2][6] - The ceremony concluded with a moment of silence at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, symbolizing respect for those who sacrificed their lives for peace [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the academic journey and research focus of Yang Yali, a doctoral student at Nankai University, emphasizing her dedication to studying the history of the Anti-Japanese War and the contributions of lesser-known figures during this period [4][6][10]. Group 1: Academic Background - Yang Yali was born in 1996 and began her master's studies at Nanjing Normal University in September 2018, focusing on the contributions of Chinese individuals in the Nanjing Safety Zone during the Anti-Japanese War [4][6]. - In 2021, she started her doctoral studies at Nankai University under the guidance of Professor Jiang Pei, continuing her research on wartime history [8]. Group 2: Research Focus - Yang's research centers on the daily lives of citizens in the wartime context, particularly in the Nanjing Safety Zone, and she has uncovered significant yet previously overlooked stories of individuals who aided refugees during the Nanjing Massacre [4][6]. - During her year-long exchange program in Japan as part of a dual doctoral degree project with Aichi University, she accessed a wealth of Japanese archival materials, enhancing her research with new historical details [8]. Group 3: Personal Commitment - Yang expresses a strong commitment to preserving the memory of the Anti-Japanese War, stating that the responsibility to seek truth and uphold peace has been passed to her generation [10]. - Her motto, "Study for the rise of China," reflects her dedication to her academic pursuits and the importance of historical memory [11].

今年是中国人民抗日战争、苏联伟大卫国战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年，也是联合国成立80周年。梨花开遍天涯的时节，习近平主席对 俄罗斯进行国事访问，并出席纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年庆典，同俄方一道重温历史、缅怀先烈。 80年前，包括中国、苏联在内的全世界正义力量同仇敌忾、英勇战斗，并肩打败了不可一世的法西斯势力。一段段用血肉铸就的历史，我们永 远不会忘记。 在苏联伟大卫国战争最危急关头，中国共产党的优秀地下工作者阎宝航，向苏方提供第一手情报。这是抗日战争前夕，阎宝航夫妇与子女在南 京合影。 在中国人民抗日战争的艰难时刻，苏联援华航空队在南京、武汉、重庆等地"鹰击长空"、阻击日寇，许多飞行员献出宝贵生命。这是抗日战争 时期，中苏飞行员在汉口机场的合影。 中国人民抗日战争开始时间最早、持续时间最长。在中国共产党倡导并建立的抗日民族统一战线旗帜下，中华儿女前赴后继、勠力同心，付出 巨大牺牲打败了穷凶极恶的日本军国主义者，谱写了抗日战争胜利的伟大篇章。这是1943年，日军对晋察冀边区进行秋季"扫荡"时，民兵埋设 地雷，打击敌人。 在欧洲战场，苏联红军以坚韧意志锻造钢铁洪流，碾碎了纳粹侵略者的野心，解放了被德国 ...

Group 1 - The significance of the Victory Day parade in Russia, marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory in the Great Patriotic War, is highlighted as one of the most important national holidays [1][12] - Over 20 world leaders, including those from China, Brazil, and Slovakia, are expected to attend the parade, along with military honor guards from 13 countries [1][4] - Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech is anticipated to address global conflicts and the importance of unity in ensuring Russia's future security [2][3] Group 2 - The participation of the Chinese People's Liberation Army honor guard, consisting of 119 soldiers, is noted as a significant aspect of the event, showcasing China's respect for historical contributions to the anti-fascist war [4][7] - The parade will feature over 10,000 military personnel, including a female soldier formation and new domestic military equipment, such as the T-34 tank and advanced drones [8][9][11] - New military technologies, including the "Zhuk-2" attack drone and "Yars" intercontinental ballistic missile system, will be showcased, indicating advancements in Russia's military capabilities [11]

1945年5月8日午夜，法西斯德国在柏林郊区的卡尔斯霍斯特正式签署无条件投降书。此时，地处柏林以东的苏联已是5月9日凌晨。苏联将5月9 日定为"卫国战争胜利日"。 1945年6月24日，苏联首次在红场举行纪念卫国战争胜利的阅兵式。苏联解体后，俄罗斯自1995年起，在每年的5月9日举行卫国战争胜利日阅 兵式及系列庆祝活动。 在纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年庆典即将举行之际，让我们透过新华社的镜头，回望30年来的卫国战争胜利日阅兵式。 1995年5月9日，伟大卫国战争参加者和后方劳动者盛大检阅仪式在 俄罗斯 莫斯科红场举行。新华社记者 刘宇 摄 1996年5月9日，在俄罗斯莫斯科红场举行的纪念卫国战争胜利51周年阅兵式上，海军学院的学员们接受检阅。新华社记者饶爱民摄 1998年5月9日， 军人在俄罗斯莫斯科红场举行的纪念卫国战争胜利53周年阅兵式上接受检阅 。新华社记者 胡海昕 摄 2000年5月9日， 在俄罗斯莫斯科举行的纪念卫国战争胜利55周年阅兵式上， 曾参加卫国战争的老兵接受检阅。新华社记者 王长山 摄 2001年5月9日， 在俄罗斯莫斯科，一名老兵带着晚辈参加纪念卫国战争胜利56周年阅兵式 。新华社记 ...

欧元兑美元涨0.1%，报1.1235。媒体报道称德国新任总理弗里德里希·默茨和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一 致认为贸易争端应迅速解决，并讨论了两国密切合作的必要性。根据德国总理办公室周四晚间发布的声 明，自周二上任以来与特朗普首次通话时，默茨还强调了德国对乌克兰的坚定支持。他明确表示德国支 持特朗普为推动结束俄乌战争所付出的努力，特朗普则祝贺默茨当选德国总理。 ...

可以说，2022年的最大主题无疑是俄乌冲突，而美国在这一冲突中获得的三大红利，使其在某种程度上实现了"躺赢"。不过，结果往往事与愿违。因此，在 2023年，这三项红利的消失似乎是大概率事件，一旦这些红利消失或趋于平稳，美国将很可能面临经济大萧条的局面。 首先，疫情带来的红利。美国作为较早"躺平"的国家，尽管经历了超过100万人因疫情而失去生命的悲剧，却在之后迅速恢复经济。国际上一些无法忍受长 期封锁的跨国制造企业，纷纷在北美，尤其是美国，加大了投资力度。这虽然未能完全解决美国经济的问题，但在一定程度上也缓解了美国面临的困境。然 而，随着世界多个国家对疫情防控措施的不断调整，这一红利似乎正在逐渐减弱。 直言不讳地说，2022年已经落下帷幕。回望过去的一年，我们不难察觉，在俄乌冲突的背景下，美国似乎巧妙地走在了获利的风口浪尖上。显而易见，这场 战争使美国的经济收获颇丰，这也是为何在其短短三百多年的历史中，仅有16年没有直接或间接参与战争的原因，这一切都表明了美国通过混乱来获利的策 略。那么，展望新的一年，美国或许将面临更大的挑战，可能迎来一场严重的经济衰退。而中国，正好可以乘此机会实现赶超。 值得一提的是，美国建 ...