Core Points - The US dollar declined on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous day's gains due to inflation data falling below market expectations [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with March CPI showing a decrease of 0.1% [3][6] - Despite lower inflation data, tariffs have increased the cost of imported goods, suggesting potential inflation rise in the coming months [1][3] Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index fell by 0.67% to 101.05, reflecting market reactions to the inflation data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [3][5] - The decline in the dollar index indicates a short-term adjustment in the market's perception of the dollar's strength [5] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.81% against the dollar, reaching 1.1177, partly due to the dollar's decline and optimistic market sentiment regarding the European economy [4] - The British pound rose by 0.95% to 1.3297, marking the largest single-day increase since April 28, driven by the dollar's retreat and positive outlook on the UK economy [7] Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Easing trade tensions have led to reduced recession forecasts among major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, impacting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6] - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until September, with a projected reduction of at least 25 basis points [6]

Core Points - The ambitious tax reform and immigration bill proposed by Trump aims to reshape the federal government's functions and the economic landscape of the U.S., but faces significant divisions within the Republican Party, making its future uncertain [1] - The House Republican leaders have introduced a new tax cut and spending reduction bill, which is expected to be voted on by the full House before Memorial Day, followed by Senate consideration [1][2] - The bill includes a substantial tax and immigration package that extends the 2017 tax cuts, significantly increases border security spending, cuts several social welfare programs, limits climate change investments, and introduces various innovative tax credits [1] Tax Reform Details - The bill extends the personal tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and partially fulfills some of Trump's campaign promises, including the establishment of new savings accounts for newborns [3] - The bill aims to raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $32,000 for joint filers and $16,000 for individual filers over the next four years [3] Immigration Policy Changes - The bill allocates over $140 billion for border security and immigration enforcement, with more than $50 billion designated for the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall and related facilities [4] Social Welfare Reforms - The bill proposes significant cuts to Medicaid, estimating a reduction of $625 billion over ten years, which could result in 8.7 million people losing health insurance [5] - New requirements include co-payment mechanisms for individuals earning above 100% of the federal poverty line and work requirements for most healthy, childless adults [5] Education Policy Adjustments - The bill introduces major changes to education financing, including increased taxation on college endowment fund earnings and a new tax credit program totaling $20 billion over four years to encourage private school payments [8] Energy Policy Shift - The bill cancels the federal tax credit for electric vehicle purchases and plans to phase out financial incentives for clean energy, while supporting fossil fuel policies [9] Defense Budget Increase - The bill allocates approximately $150 billion to the Department of Defense, covering various priorities including $34 billion for ammunition and supply chain enhancements [10] Debt Ceiling Adjustment - The bill proposes raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion to provide budgetary flexibility for future expenditures [11]

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.72美元，收于每桶63.67美元，涨幅 为2.78%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.67美元，收于每桶66.63美元，涨幅为2.57%。 美国"重新投资"资本公司创始合伙人约翰·基尔达夫（John Kilduff）表示，石油市场在13日出现补涨， 同时当日早间公布的数据也给美联储提供了进行货币政策调整的空间。 新华财经纽约5月13日电（记者刘亚南） 由于市场需求利好刺激，国际油价13日进一步强势反弹。 瑞穗证券美国公司能源期货业务负责人罗伯特·约杰（Robert Yawger）说，共和党在国会中提出的预算 案建议留出13亿美元用于补充战略原油储备，以及特朗普呼吁伊朗达成核问题协议否则将面临极限施 压，也给油价上涨带来额外的助推。 另外，标普全球在12日晚些时候发布的调查数据显示，行业分析人士认为，上周美国商业原油库存环比 下降170万桶，汽油和蒸馏油库存预计分别下降160万桶和90万桶。 摩根大通集团分析师表示，尽管原油需求前景恶化，不能忽视燃油市场积极的信号，即目前成品油价格 和炼油利润率依然持稳。"欧美炼油能力的减少正在让汽柴油供应收 ...

2025年5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《声明》）。资本市场反响热烈，恒 生指数大涨3%，人民币升破7.2关口。 一、双边关税：超预期大幅下行 结合双方信息，此次中美主要达成了三方面共识。 资料来源：招商银行研究院 二是双方同意设立中美经贸磋商机制， 定期在中、美或第三国开展对话，重点解决供应链安全、数字贸易规 则等议题。 三是达成部分产业共识， 美中双方已就五到六个具有战略意义的产业链供应链脆弱环节达成初步共识，如医 药和钢铁等行业，美国将在这些领域寻求供应链独立性，并优先从盟友国家获取稳定供应。 一是双边关税超预期大幅下行。美国方面，4月2日后对华加征的额外关税大幅降至10%， 还有24%的关税将 在"解放日"后的90天内暂停实施。如此一来，5月14日后，美国对华对等关税将由125%降至10%，此部分"基础 关税"或长期保留。叠加2-3月累计加征的20%"芬太尼"关税，特朗普2.0时期对华加征的关税将降至30%。特朗 普政府在对等关税的实施上对所有国家"一视同仁"，对中国也按下了暂停键。加上特朗普1.0时期所加征的关 税， 当前美国对华平均关税为42.7%。 结合各方信息研判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid implementation of housing market policies indicates a sense of urgency among local governments to stimulate the market due to poor performance and declining transaction data [1][3][4]. Policy Implementation - The speed of policy execution has significantly increased compared to previous years, with multiple cities quickly following the central bank's decision to lower public housing loan rates [1][3]. - In the first four months of the year, over 300 housing market easing policies were issued across more than 200 cities, primarily focusing on subsidies and increasing public loan limits, rather than major restrictions like purchase limits [3][4]. Market Performance - Despite high initial sales rates in some cities, overall market performance remains weak, with a noticeable slowdown in transaction growth in March [3][4]. - The urgency for local governments to act is driven by alarming data from the recent holiday period, highlighting the need for immediate market intervention [4][5]. Local Government Strategies - Local governments are employing various strategies to stimulate the market, including lowering down payment ratios and even purchasing properties for social housing [5][6]. - The effectiveness of these measures is uncertain, as they may only provide temporary relief without changing market expectations [6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are advised to prioritize defensive strategies in their purchasing decisions, focusing on existing homes, especially those developed by state-owned enterprises, while avoiding high-leverage purchases [8]. - The housing market is experiencing a bifurcation, with core areas in first-tier cities potentially seeing moderate price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle [8][9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Republican tax legislation in the U.S. House extends the tip tax deduction policy until 2028 and calls for an early termination of electric vehicle tax credits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of drug policies by President Trump will provide funding support for the "Iron Dome" program, which is the U.S. missile defense system construction plan [1] Group 1 - The drug policy changes are aimed at reallocating financial resources to support defense initiatives [1]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 12 日 4 月外贸数据点评："抢转口"为出口提供韧性 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 2025.05.08 投资要点： 4 月出口仍具韧性。以美元计价，4 月出口增速 8.1%，高于一季度出口增 速 6.4%，远超万得一致预期增速 0.8%。出口仍然具备韧性，主要源于 "抢转口"对出口的支撑。环比上看，4 月出口环比增速 0.6%，高于季 节性，同时，考虑到 3 月份抢出口冲量，4 月环比增速仍具韧性，指向出 口动能仍存。 分地区看，对美出口降温，对加拿大、东盟、拉美地区出口大幅提升。新 兴经济体方面，4 月，我国对东盟出口增速较上月几乎翻倍，其中，对越 南出口增速高达 22.5%。对印度出口增速 21.7%。我国对拉丁美洲出口增 速提升明显。发达经济体方面，对美国出口降温。同时，对加拿大、欧盟 出口提升。数据上看，4 月份出口"抢转口"迹象明显：中国对东盟、欧 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Cotton, Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13380, up 255, with a trading volume of 44,743 hands (an increase of 26328 hands) and an open interest of 101,668 (an increase of 12990) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 12980, up 295, with a trading volume of 2,819 hands (a decrease of 438 hands) and an open interest of 34,297 (a decrease of 234) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13240, up 290, with a trading volume of 382,405 hands (an increase of 223703 hands) and an open interest of 582,792 (an increase of 8708) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19500, up 320, with a trading volume of 3 hands (an increase of 2 hands) and an open interest of 9 (an increase of 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18650, unchanged, with a trading volume of 0 hands (a decrease of 6 hands) and an open interest of 160 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19430, up 325, with a trading volume of 189 hands (a decrease of 13 hands) and an open interest of 1309 (a decrease of 30) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.25 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.97 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan/ton [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 21924 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton [3] - Indian S - 6 was priced at 54600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was priced at 11040 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was priced at 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 400, down 40; 5 - 9 spread was - 260, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 140, up 35 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 850, up 320; 5 - 9 spread was - 780, down 325; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6120, up 65; CY05 - CF05 was 5670, down 295; CY09 - CF09 was 6190, up 35 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 223, up 110; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 428, up 75; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1624, down 701 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From May 10 - 11, 2025, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of the reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. China made corresponding adjustments [5] - As of May 9, 2025, Xinjiang's cotton sowing was nearly finished, with the planting area stable at about 36 million mu [5] - As of May 2, 2025, ON - CALL 2507 contract's seller un - priced contracts decreased by 469 to 18420, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. 24/25 annual seller un - priced contracts decreased by 609 to 18483, equivalent to 420,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. ICE seller un - priced contracts increased to 50451, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, an increase of 1165 (30,000 tons) week - on - week [6] Trading Logic - The China - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. The US will modify tariff policies. The macro - level tariff policy is better than expected, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to open higher and strengthen in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger due to macro - level influence [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The China - US negotiation progressed smoothly, but the overall demand for cotton grey cloth was insufficient, with slow sales and increasing inventory in weaving factories. Some spinning mills raised cotton yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, but the market was in the off - season with weak downstream demand. Macro - level benefits may push cotton prices higher, and cotton yarn prices will follow but with a smaller increase [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On May 12, 2025, for CF509C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 256.00, up 30.6%, IV was 11.9% [12] - For CF509P12600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 131.00, down 46.3%, IV was 13.5% [12] - For CF509P12200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 73.00, down 41.6%, IV was 14.8% [12] Volatility and Market Sentiment - On May 12, 2025, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5629, with a slight increase. The main contract's position PCR was 0.8529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7283. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased, and the market's bearish sentiment was obvious [12][13] Option Strategy - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][21][26]

对话钨专家：解读钨价上涨 20250509 摘要 • 2025 年钨市场供需预计持续偏紧，供应端无显著增量，需求端维持稳定， 整体持乐观态度。预计全年均价或达 16 万元左右，存在 20%-30%的波 动空间，但大幅上涨需更强事件驱动。 • 一季度钨出口受政策调整影响显著下降，3 月累计降幅达 27%，但进口量 同比增长 20%，其中钨精矿进口增长超 40%。国内外价差扩大导致原料 进口下降或成常态。 • 核聚变试验堆对钨需求显著增加，预计需求量超 3,000 吨金属量，约占总 消费量 5%。国际国内实验堆建设加速及商业化运营推动钨需求增长。 • 2025 年第一批指标配额减少 4,000 吨，为近五年最大减量。矿产资源法 加强管理，未来或有更多政策管理战略金属，钨作为战略品种迎来发展机 遇。 • 哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿投产预计 2025 年释放 2,500-3,000 吨金属量，但 中国国内需求增长可抵消该增量，对全球供需影响有限。硬质合金、基建 及新兴应用领域促进钨材消费。 Q&A 今年一季度钨工业的运行情况如何？ 一季度钨工业运行保持平稳，钨精矿产量同比增长不到 1%，APW 产量也同比 增长不到 1%， ...