（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 人民币国际化是一项长期任务，但国际化进程与中国经济在全球地位提升相比还是慢了。本文探讨人民币国际化进程加快的可能性，并对 由此带来的利弊进行分析。马克思曾在《资本论》中写道：从商品到货币的过程是一次惊险的跳跃。那么，人民币从当前状态锐变为全球 认可度很高的国际货币，是否也会是惊险一跃？本文主要从"流动性溢价"角度来论述人民币加快国际化步伐的可行性及意义。 本文要点： 人民币适度升值将一定程度上降低对于年度 GDP 增速的下限要求，避免过多通过投资"快变量"拉动经济增长，有助于经济结构 转型。 当前人民币国际化水平与中国经济体量不相匹配。人民币在外汇交易、国际支付、贸易融资、储备货币等方面的国际占比远低于 经济体量占比。 人民币支付在全球份额或存在低估。货币互换协议和 CIPS 的使用规模明显增加， SWIFT 对人民币支付的统计不完全，实际人民 币支付结算比例估计在 8% 左右。但人民币支付存在地域方面较为狭小的问题，国际支付主要发生在香港，占比超过 7 成。 历史经验表明，加速人民币国际化并不必然导致人民币贬值。我国 2005 年汇改后，人民币对美 ...

2025 年 07 月 01 日 持续配置反转因子 —— 量化资产配置月报 202507 - 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 持续配置反转因子。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济回落、流动性略偏松，信用指标转好， 微观映射中经济（盈利预期）好转回到中等，信用转好，微观流动性偏紧，因此仅流动性 触发修正，修正后的方向为经济下行、流动性偏紧而信用转好，修正后的方向与上期维持 一致；由于流动性与信用产生明显背离，我们主要按照对经济不敏感、对信用敏感来选择 得分前三的因子，各股票池配置风格仍偏向成长，300、500 的因子选择与上期保持一致， 无共振因子，中证 1000 的因子选择中增加了短期反转因子，低波动率、短期反转 ...

证券分析师：王艺熹 021-60893204 wangyixi@guosen.com.cn S0980522100006 证券研究报告 | 2025年7月1日 转债市场研判及"十强转债"组合 2025年7月 投资策略 · 固定收益 国信宏观固收 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 02 2025年7月转债配置策略 联系人：吴越 021-60375496 wuyue8@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 2025年6月转债市场回顾 03 2025年7月"十强转债"组合 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 股市方面，6月权益市场震荡上涨，尤其下旬在中东局势缓和、以及稳定币、小米汽车、军 贸等多项热点题材的催化之下，沪指再次站上3400点，截至6月27日沪指收于3424.2，全月 涨1.85%。申万一级行业多数收涨，受产业订单预期向好拉动的通信（+12 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《7 月利率会破新低么？——流动性周 报 20250629》 - 2025.06.30 固收周报 中长久期城投债流动性继续上升 ——流动性打分周报 20250630 ⚫ 核心解读 本周报以 qb 的债券资产流动性打分为基础，跟踪不同债券板块 个券的流动性得分情况。 城投债方面，分区域看，江苏、山东、四川高等级流动性债项均 有所增加，天津、重庆整体维持。分期限看，短久期和中长期债项流 动性均有所上升；其中 1 年以内和 1-2 年期高等级流动性债项有所增 加，2-3 年期有所减少，3-5 年期和 5 年期以上债项继续增加。从隐 含评级看，中高等级债项流动性增加，低等级债项流动性整体维持； 其中隐含评级为 AAA、AA+、AA、AA(2)的高等级流动性债项数量均有 所增加，隐含评级为 AA-的高等级流动性债项整体维持。 产业债方面 ...

Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing accelerated personnel turnover and structural changes as of the first half of 2025, with a total of 323,900 practitioners, a decrease of 6,870 or 2.12% since the beginning of the year [1] Personnel Changes - The number of general securities business personnel decreased by 5,521, a decline of 2.74% - Securities sponsors saw a reduction of 330, representing a 3.90% drop - Securities brokers experienced a decrease of 2,264, which is an 8.75% decline - Conversely, investment advisors increased by 1,264, marking a growth of 1.55% - Securities analysts saw a net increase of 50, reflecting a growth of 0.89% [1] Firm-Specific Changes - Among 42 listed securities firms, 35 reported a reduction in employee numbers, indicating a high attrition rate of 83.33% - Major firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, and GF Securities saw significant reductions in personnel, with decreases of 421, 401, 337, and 305 respectively - Smaller firms, while having lower absolute reductions, exhibited significant percentage declines, with Tianfeng Securities experiencing a reduction of over 5%, specifically 6.36% [1] Detailed Personnel Data - Guotai Haitong: 11,346 to 18,654, an increase of 7,308 or 39.18% - CITIC Securities: 14,216 to 13,815, a decrease of 401 or 2.90% - CITIC Construction Investment: 11,350 to 11,013, a decrease of 337 or 3.06% - China Galaxy: 11,248 to 11,004, a decrease of 244 or 2.22% - GF Securities: 10,790 to 10,485, a decrease of 305 or 2.91% - Guotai Securities: 9,924 to 9,503, a decrease of 421 or 4.43% [2] Investment Advisor Changes - Notable reductions in investment advisors include: - Industrial Securities: decreased by 40 to 1,041, a drop of 3.84% - CITIC Securities: decreased by 32 to 4,431, a drop of 0.72% - Guotai Securities: decreased by 19 to 3,745, a drop of 0.51% - Caida Securities: decreased by 12 to 726, a drop of 1.65% [3] Securities Sponsor Changes - The number of securities sponsors decreased significantly, with notable firms such as: - CITIC Construction Investment: decreased by 53 to 540, a drop of 9.81% - Oriental Securities: decreased by 35 to 208, a drop of 16.83% - CITIC Securities: decreased by 32 to 588, a drop of 5.44% [4] Analyst Changes - A total of 16 listed securities firms had more than 100 analysts, with CICC leading at 340 analysts, followed by Guotai Junan (287) and CITIC Securities (268) - However, firms like CITIC Construction Investment, Zhejiang Securities, CICC, and GF Securities experienced varying degrees of analyst reductions [5]

Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing accelerated personnel turnover and structural changes as of the first half of 2025, with a total of 323,900 practitioners, a decrease of 6,870 or 2.12% from the beginning of the year [1] Personnel Changes - The number of general securities business personnel decreased by 5,521, a decline of 2.74% - Securities sponsors saw a reduction of 330, marking a 3.90% drop - Securities brokers experienced a decrease of 2,264, which is an 8.75% decline - Conversely, investment advisors increased by 1,264, reflecting a growth of 1.55% - The number of securities analysts rose by 50, indicating a 0.89% increase [1] Firm-Specific Changes - Among 42 listed securities firms, 35 reported a reduction in employee numbers, representing 83.33% of the firms - Major firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CITIC Jianan, and GF Securities saw significant reductions of 421, 401, 337, and 305 employees respectively - Smaller firms, while having lower absolute reductions, exhibited substantial percentage declines, with Tianfeng Securities experiencing a reduction of over 5%, specifically 6.36% [1] Detailed Personnel Data - The following firms reported notable changes in employee numbers from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025: - Guotai Haitong: Increased by 7,308 (39.18%) - CITIC Securities: Decreased by 401 (-2.90%) - CITIC Jianan: Decreased by 337 (-3.06%) - China Galaxy: Decreased by 244 (-2.22%) - GF Securities: Decreased by 305 (-2.91%) - Guoxin Securities: Decreased by 421 (-4.43%) [2] Investment Advisor Changes - Specific reductions in investment advisors included: - Industrial Securities: Decreased by 40 - CITIC Securities: Decreased by 32 - Guoxin Securities: Decreased by 19 - Caitong Securities: Decreased by 12 [3] Securities Sponsor Changes - The total number of securities sponsors decreased by over 300, marking the first decline in three years - Notable reductions included: - Oriental Securities: Decreased by 35 (16.83%) - Dongxing Securities: Decreased by 33 (14.77%) [4] Analyst Changes - A total of 16 listed securities firms had more than 100 analysts as of mid-2025 - The leading firm, Zhongjin Company, had 340 analysts, followed by Guotai Junan (287) and CITIC Securities (268) - However, firms like CITIC Jianan, GF Securities, and others experienced varying degrees of analyst reductions [5]

Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing accelerated personnel turnover and structural changes as of the first half of 2025, with a total of 323,900 practitioners, a decrease of 6,870 or 2.12% from the beginning of the year [1] Personnel Changes - The number of general securities business personnel decreased by 5,521, a decline of 2.74% - Securities sponsors saw a reduction of 330, representing a 3.90% drop - Securities brokers experienced a decrease of 2,264, marking an 8.75% decline - Conversely, investment advisors increased by 1,264, an increase of 1.55%, and securities analysts rose by 50, a growth of 0.89% [1] Firm-Specific Changes - Among 42 listed securities firms, 35 reported a reduction in employee numbers, with a reduction rate of 83.33% - Major firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CITIC Jianan, and GF Securities saw significant reductions of 421, 401, 337, and 305 employees respectively - Smaller firms, while having lower absolute reductions, exhibited significant percentage declines, with Tianfeng Securities experiencing a reduction of over 5%, specifically 6.36% [1] Detailed Personnel Data - Guotai Haitong: 11,346 to 18,654, an increase of 7,308 or 39.18% - CITIC Securities: 14,216 to 13,815, a decrease of 401 or 2.90% - CITIC Jianan: 11,350 to 11,013, a decrease of 337 or 3.06% - China Galaxy: 11,248 to 11,004, a decrease of 244 or 2.22% - GF Securities: 10,790 to 10,485, a decrease of 305 or 2.91% - Guotai Securities: 9,924 to 9,503, a decrease of 421 or 4.43% [2] Investment Advisor Changes - Notable reductions in investment advisors include: - Industrial Securities: decreased by 40 to 1,041, a drop of 3.84% - CITIC Securities: decreased by 32 to 4,431, a drop of 0.72% - Guotai Securities: decreased by 19 to 3,745, a drop of 0.51% - Caitong Securities: decreased by 12 to 726, a drop of 1.65% [3] Securities Sponsor Changes - In terms of securities sponsors, notable reductions include: - CITIC Jianan: decreased by 53 to 540, a drop of 9.81% - Oriental Securities: decreased by 35 to 208, a drop of 16.83% - CITIC Securities: decreased by 32 to 588, a drop of 5.44% [4] Analyst Changes - The number of analysts in the industry saw varied changes: - CICC: 340 analysts, a decrease of 7 or 2.06% - Guotai Haitong: increased by 113 to 287, a growth of 39.37% - CITIC Securities: increased by 9 to 268, a growth of 3.36% - CITIC Jianan: decreased by 9 to 164, a drop of 5.49% [5]

Core Insights - The successful transmission of data from Hong Kong University Shenzhen Hospital to the "Health Connect" system in Hong Kong marks a significant technological advancement in cross-border data connectivity between Shenzhen and Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Data Connectivity - The establishment of a cross-border secure and convenient data transmission channel supports the integration of medical systems between Shenzhen and Hong Kong [1] - Future discussions and practical implementations will focus on ensuring compliance with local regulations while facilitating the safe and efficient transfer of electronic medical records and examination reports [1] Group 2: Policy Framework - The initiative aligns with national data export security management policies and the memorandum on promoting cross-border data flow in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] - Relevant policy measures will be explored to enhance the cross-border flow of medical data while adhering to the legal frameworks of both regions [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 股 指 行 情 综 i不 回顾:昨日收盘,沪深300上涨0.37%至3936.1;上证50上涨0.16%至 2712;中证500上涨0.88%至5915.4;中证1000上涨1.26%至6356.2。沪深两 市成交额14869亿,较上周五缩量542亿。行业方面,航天航空、游戏、船 舶制造、光伏设备、医疗服务、电子化学品、珠宝首饰、小金属、通信设 备板块涨幅居前,仅证券、银行、水泥建材、航空机场板块下跌。 热评:昨日股指震荡上涨,市场成交量维持1.5万亿左右的较高水平。中 采PMI数据公布,6月制造业PMI为49.7%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,显示制 造业景气水平小幅改善。短期来看,股指经历强势突破后,在情绪和流动 性的驱动下进一步走强偏强震荡的概率较高,后续关注宏观增量信息对股 指方向的指引。中长期来看,展望下半年,7月底政治局会议将为下半年政 策定调,鉴于地产销售与投资可能进一步恶化,且消费虽有结构性亮点但 整体仍偏弱,预计稳定内需仍需政策进一步加力托底。与此同时,美国关 税政策尚未最终落定,叠加美联储降息时点渐行渐近,海外流动性宽松预 期及地缘政治格局 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...