作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 随着夏季酷热高温天气来临，多地电网纷纷刷新最大负荷历史记录，股市里的电力股也开始 "热爆"了。 从资金流向来看， 今天电网设备、 电力板块净流入 分别超过 35 亿元、 25 亿元， 均 大幅居前 ，凸显市场资 金对电力板块的青睐。 电力行业的价值逻辑，正在高温天气的催化下发生深刻变化。 炎夏炒电行情来了 01 行情来看，今年入夏以来， A 港股的电力股便持续走高。特别是在夏至节气后（ 6 月下旬），电力板块涨势愈发 不可阻挡。自 6 月 23 日至今，电力板块累计涨幅超 12% 。 涨势最为凶猛的 华银电力从 7 月初就开启强势飙涨行情，期间一度实现连续 5 日涨停，至今本月累计飙涨达到 了 103.33% ，并且年内之间已经累涨近 195% ，成为本轮电力行情股中最强龙头。 入夏以来，随着南方地区逐渐进入高温天气带动电力需求激增，这成为了刺激电力股大涨的重要原因。 周一， A 股市场电力股再次成为全场焦点， 其中以火电概念表现更为突出， 京运通 3 连板，豫能控股 2 连 板，建投能源、廊坊发展、华电辽能、晋控电力等多股涨停 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share market is driven by strong mid-year earnings reports, with many companies experiencing significant profit growth, leading to increased investor interest and stock price appreciation [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of July 12, approximately 487 A-share companies have disclosed mid-year earnings forecasts, with a positive outlook rate of 57.7%, slightly higher than the same period last year [3]. - The non-bank sector shows a high positive outlook rate of about 90.9%, with companies like China Union and Huaxi Securities expecting over 1000% growth [3]. - The home appliance sector has a positive outlook rate of around 70%, with companies like Whirlpool and Sichuan Changhong reporting growth rates exceeding 50% [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Companies with strong earnings forecasts, such as Huayin Power, have seen their stock prices surge, with Huayin Power's stock rising 101.33% in July and achieving a 36 to 44 times increase in net profit [1][4]. - Other companies like Yudai Development are also experiencing significant stock price increases, with a forecasted net profit growth of 632% to 784% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - High-performing sectors identified include AI hardware supply chains, wind power, gaming, small metals, and non-bank financials, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [6][7]. - The second quarter's performance is expected to be strong in upstream industrial metals, wind power, and sectors with order fulfillment expectations, such as military industries [7]. - Historical data indicates that there have been nine structural market trends during mid-year earnings disclosures since 2010, with TMT sectors showing potential for recovery in August [7].

7月14日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8460.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，工业硅主力最高触及8740.0元，下方探低8350.0元，涨幅达2.85%附近。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 广州期货指出，反内卷效果显著，下游多晶硅大幅上调报价，其利润得到明显修复，市场预期对原料工 业硅采购压价情绪或有所缓解，进而带动工业硅市场情绪改善，在库存压力并未进一步增加情况下，短 期或仍有支撑。但西南丰水期背景下，后续南方工厂套保意愿或逐步增强，对反弹高度存在压制。策略 上，波段操作思路，主力合约参考区间（8000，9000）。 中辉期货表示，强预期VS弱现实，成本端焦煤反弹对工业硅形成支撑。基本面尚未出现实质性改善， 高库存压制上方反弹空间。价格波动剧烈谨慎追涨【8240-8550】。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，从供应端来看，本期工业硅现货价格大幅上行，当前西北伊犁地区的化肥 补贴政策仍保持稳定执行，暂无显著调整；大型生产企业未传出减产或停产的相关消息。西南区域生产 成本有所下降，其中保 ...

本周迎来超级数据周！黄金行情如何前瞻？当前订单流给出什么进场信号？顺姐正在实时分析 相关链接 实时黄金订单流解析 ...

有意思的是，ETF多呈现出"高抛低吸"的形态，即净值增长时资金往往净流出。今天早盘上涨过程中即 出现此情景。然而午后突发逆转，盘中再迎2单位申赎，资金瞬间转为净流入！资金热度不减，据Wind Level2实时行情结合均价预估，盘中净流入约500万。 风险提示：文中提及的指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议。任何在本文出现的 信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资 人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。基金投资有风险，基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现，基金管 理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎。 浙商证券表示，小盘行情尚未终结，流动性溢出行情延续。近两周市场结构出现较为显著的非线性市值 回摆，中证500相对中证2000及微盘指数显著偏强。一方面源自其在过去1年受哑铃型投资者结构影响， 长期走弱形成的价格洼地属性。另一方面，反内卷等催化影响的钢铁等上周周期板块在中证500里的占 比相对偏高。然而，我们认为本轮小盘强势行情的底层逻辑是流动性溢出，广谱利率下行、个人投资者 参与意愿提升是本轮小盘行情的基石。 来源：金融界 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 市场平静，油脂震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 7 榈油方面：马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布的数据显示，6 月马棕产量 169.2 万吨，出口 125.94 万吨，库存 203 万吨，整体 来看，6 月马棕出口明显低于预期，但 6 月库存环比略增。马棕 榈油上涨 2.78%。 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 14 星期一 豆油方面：本月将 2025/26 年度美国大豆产量下调 500 万蒲 至 43.35 亿蒲，同时维持大豆单产 52.5 蒲/英亩不变。将美国大 豆压榨上调 5000 万蒲至 25.4 亿蒲，因生物燃料行业的豆油需求 上升。将 2025/26 年度美国大豆出口下调 7000 万蒲至 17.45 亿蒲， 因国内需求增长，阿根廷和乌克兰出口强劲。美国大豆期末库存 上调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The power semiconductor market is deteriorating, leading to continuous capital outflow, exemplified by JS Foundry's bankruptcy filing due to challenges in customer acquisition and financial difficulties caused by the rise of Chinese competitors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - JS Foundry, established in December 2022 with investments from the Japan Policy Investment Bank and others, has a total debt of 16.1 billion yen and employs approximately 550 people, with around 200 outsourced to other companies [1]. - The company acquired its Niigata factory from ON Semiconductor in 2022, which was originally built in 1984 by Sanyo Electric [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - JS Foundry's revenue has significantly declined from approximately 10 billion yen at its inception to an expected 2.6 billion yen in the fiscal year ending December 2024 [2]. - The company had anticipated growth driven by electric vehicle demand, but this growth has not materialized as expected, leading to a worsening market situation starting in the second half of 2023 [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The rise of Chinese power semiconductor manufacturers has hindered JS Foundry's ability to develop new customers, contributing to its financial struggles [1][2]. - Other companies in the power semiconductor sector, such as Wolfspeed and Rohm, are also facing significant challenges, with Wolfspeed filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and Rohm expecting its first net loss in 11 years due to investments in this sector [2].

行情异动复盘 期货盯盘神器早盘分享：乙二醇引爆主买资金炸弹，价格短线走高；红枣出现新的空头堆积带，一图了解豆一、烧碱、玻璃等 热门品种出现的关键市场信号。 相关链接 10:49 成交额5.10亿 H:62.609 乙二醇主力合约在10:49出现主买资金炸弹，主买占 比达62.6%，推动价格迅速走高。 4094 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing positive trend in the A-share market, with a focus on mid-year performance reports and the theme of "anti-involution" [2][3] - China Shenhua reported a coal sales volume of 204.9 million tons in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [8] - The railway sector completed fixed asset investments of 355.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [9] Group 2 - The article discusses the ongoing family trust dispute involving Wahaha's chairperson, Zong Fuli, who is being sued by her half-siblings for rights to a trust fund valued at 700 million USD each [5][6][7] - The white feather meat duck industry is undergoing a significant capacity reduction, with approximately 9 million breeding ducks eliminated, and an expectation that 30% of breeding duck enterprises may exit the market [11] - Perplexity's CEO indicated plans to utilize the Kimi K2 model for further training, highlighting advancements in AI capabilities [12]

Market Overview - As of 10:28 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.48%, with a trading volume of 616.24 million shares and a transaction value of 731.22 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.87% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: Up 1.22% with a transaction value of 45.81 billion yuan, down 13.23% from the previous day, led by Bohui Co., which rose by 8.23% [1] - Banking: Up 1.15% with a transaction value of 193.09 billion yuan, down 8.16% from the previous day, led by Guiyang Bank, which increased by 3.94% [1] - Comprehensive: Up 1.10% with a transaction value of 12.42 billion yuan, up 2.11% from the previous day, led by Yueda Investment, which rose by 4.24% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Media: Down 1.44% with a transaction value of 240.31 billion yuan, up 15.18% from the previous day, led by *ST Zitian, which fell by 12.85% [2] - Real Estate: Down 1.28% with a transaction value of 118.87 billion yuan, down 12.61% from the previous day, led by Guangda Jiabao, which decreased by 8.24% [2] - Computer: Down 1.19% with a transaction value of 804.80 billion yuan, down 2.96% from the previous day, led by *ST Guandao, which fell by 12.95% [2]