固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 市场延续结构修复，成长轮动博弈升温 ——可转债周报 20250510 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 5 月 6 日-2025 年 5 月 10 日,下同）A 股延续震荡修复态势，中小盘表现活跃， 中证 2000 指数涨 3.6%，成长风格领涨。转债市场普涨，中证转债指数涨 1.32%，小盘指数弹 性较强，成交温和回升至 627 亿元。结构上，低价及高景气转债估值修复，中高价转债表现相 对分化。一级市场新增 8 家企业更新预案，潜在供给规模升至 590.0 亿元。建议围绕低溢价、 基本面支撑强的标的进行布局，兼顾估值安全边际与上涨弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 市场延续结构修复，成长轮动博弈升温 2] ——可转债周报 20250510 [Table_Summa ...

2025.05. 15 作者 | 第一财经 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.42%，深成指跌1.12%，创业板指跌1.35%。 港口航运板块延续强势，美容护理、宠物经济、合成生物、玉米、乳业等涨幅居前，华为盘古、华为 昇腾、华为欧拉、软件开发、数字货币等板块走低。 推荐阅读 个股跌多涨少，全市场超3600只个股下跌。 "降低30%至80%"，特朗普突然宣布降价！ | 全A | | 涨 1612 | 平 192 | 跌 3607 A股成? | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | T | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3389.75 | -14.19 -0.42% | | 2 | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10238.63 | -115.59 -1.12% | | 3 | | 899050 北证50 | 1428.73 | 7.80 0.55% | | 4 | | 881001 万得全A | 5128.28 | -39.92 -0.77% | | 5 | | 000688 科创50 | 1003.00 | -10.78 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade situation and its implications for investment strategies and market dynamics [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **AIE Indicator**: The AIE (Asset Investment Equity) indicator, which measures the equity allocation ratio in the market, predicts a future annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years, down from a previous forecast of 12% [1][4]. - **Revised ERP Model**: The revised ERP (Equity Risk Premium) model suggests maintaining a strategic position of around 60% in equities, contrasting with previous recommendations of being fully invested or in cash [1][5]. - **Market Trends**: Despite short-term volatility due to various factors, including U.S.-China trade relations and monetary policy, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend through 2027-2028 [1][6]. - **Internal Market Focus**: The market's attention is shifting from external factors to internal issues such as overcapacity, deflation, real estate downturns, and local government debt, which are becoming critical for future market performance [1][8][9]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Current investor sentiment is nearing historical adjustment levels, indicating potential for market corrections and style rotation risks [1][10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Rotation**: Recent market style rotation has moved from growth to defensive and then to consumer sectors, with a focus on defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [1][12][18]. - **Investment Value**: High-dividend, low-volatility sectors such as banking, utilities, and transportation are highlighted as having significant investment value in the current market environment [1][13]. - **Impact of Fund Development Plans**: The public fund development action plan may lead to a shift in capital towards underweighted sectors like banking and utilities, negatively impacting sectors like electronics and biomedicine [2][17]. - **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces challenges such as overcapacity and declining fixed asset investment growth, with corporate earnings yet to confirm a bottom [1][9]. - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is currently underperforming due to a lack of fundamental support, with expectations for improvement reliant on policy stimulus [1][16]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating a complex landscape influenced by both internal economic factors and external trade dynamics. Investors are advised to remain cautious and adaptable to ongoing market changes, focusing on sectors that offer defensive characteristics and potential for recovery.

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 把握住中短久期品种的确定性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 央行"双降"落地后信用债市场呈现"短端修复、长端观望"特征，5 月 7 日-9 日短端信用品 种收益率明显下行（1Y 品种下行 7-11bp），预计后续仍有 5-6bp 压缩空间，而中长久期表现偏 弱（5YAAA 城投仅下行 3.3bp），配置窗口或于 5 月中下旬开启。当前市场更依赖交易盘博弈 高流动性品种，基金已出现"抢跑式"布局 1-3Y 和 3-5Y 信用债，随着短端利差收窄，后续加 仓中高等级长久期品种的力度可能增强。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 把握住中短久期品种的确定性 [Table_Summa] "短端修复，长端观望"的新特征 5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日期间，央行"双降"（降准+降 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a high open but low close, indicating a lack of momentum and investor interest, with a trading volume decrease of 15 billion [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is facing significant resistance around the 3400-3450 range, making it difficult to break through in the current low-demand environment [1][2] Trading Dynamics - The market is expected to either maintain a sideways trading range or potentially decline, depending on whether trading volume can support these movements [2] - The lack of sustained momentum in sectors such as military and robotics suggests that the market is struggling to find consistent profitable opportunities [3][4] Sector Performance - Chemical sectors showed some profitability, while military and robotics sectors failed to maintain their upward momentum, indicating a lack of investor confidence [3][4] - Other sectors like solar energy and consumer goods experienced brief surges, but these were characterized as "fishing plateaus," lacking substantial long-term potential [4] Index Analysis - The 中证500 and 中证1000 indices are currently in a consolidation phase, reflecting the overall market's inability to establish strong trends or hotspots [5] - The market's current state suggests that any emerging trends should be approached with caution, as they may only represent temporary fluctuations rather than sustained growth [5]

虽然说今天高开是大家能预期的，高开低走也是可以理解，但高开后一路向南，明显就是没有资金流入，反有资金流出的最好证明，大家一直说市场是超预 期利好，而昨天利好又是在A股收盘后出现的，所以无论如何不能认为超预期利好在昨天已经兑现了，其实港股拉升，美股大涨，A股理论上需要一个补 涨，今天的高开相对于昨天港股尾盘的涨幅已经很克制了，我不认为有什么大问题。就旬昨天说了，如果看到资金的流入，盘面就能活起来，因为昨天题材 涨停已经接近枯竭，从利好叠加的节奏看，我是不会认为今天会单边下跌，但真实的情况是，无论是今天是什么时候看好的，都会被无情打脸，当然，银行 板块是例外的。其实大家可以看看银行指数，这三年来已经翻了一倍，可上证指数原地不动，由此可见，银行扛下了所有，有时候真想买一点银行，做个反 手亏了没所谓，但赚了就成了耐心资金，多好！ 昨天复盘时分析，其实能涨是因为没有抛压，今天的关键是买盘力量能不能重回1000+，很可惜，我们等不来1000+的买盘，今天的买盘比昨天还要少，尽 管觉得这个市场有问题，为什么出现利好买的人反而少了，可市场就是对的，现在的情况是买盘已经接近枯竭了，枯竭到什么程度？在同一量级下已经到去 年8月份 ...

一、 指数表现与成交量 今日 ， A 股三大指数集体高开， 但在 早盘冲高后市场出现获利盘抛压，午后指数震荡回 落，沪指微涨 0. 17 % ，深成指和创业板指分别收跌 0. 13 % 和 0. 12 % 。两市成交额 继 续 突破万亿元，达 1. 29 万亿元，较前一交易日 缩量 约 169 亿元。个股表现分化，超 4 000 只个股早盘上涨，但收盘时下跌个股增至 3200 余只，市场情绪从普涨转向结构性波 动。 二、 领涨板块：出口链与科技股主导行情 1 、 光伏设备与新能源：光伏板块全线爆发，多晶硅期货主力合约 4 日累计涨幅超 13% ， 头部企业如东方日升涨停，阳光电源一季度净利润同比大增 82.52% 。行业传闻头部厂商联 合减产挺价，叠加中美关税缓和后出口预期改善，推动板块情绪。 2 、 跨境电商与消费电子：中美关税下调超预期直接利好出口链。跨境电商指数创 2 个月新 高，恒而达、华纺股份等多股涨停；消费电子板块因供应链成本下降预期走强，叠加 VR/AR 技术提升购物转化率等长期逻辑支撑。 尽管中美关税缓和提振了整体风险偏好，但市场并未普涨，反而呈现显著分化，主要原因包 括： 1、 利好提前消化 ...

1. 美国ETF创新产品：Pacer发行现金流轮动策略产品 YieldMax上周继续扩充其单股票Covered Call策略产品，挂钩互联网券商Robinhood。 2. 美国ETF动态 2.1美国ETF资金：债券产品流入提升 上周美国股票ETF继续有一定流出，但国际股票、债券产品仍然流入明显，债券ETF的流入有所增加： 上周美国共8只新发产品，Pacer发行两只新产品扩充现金流产品线： VistaShares上周发行一只期权策略产品，产品首先通过ROE、盈利波动、负债率等质量标准选择20-50只股票，然后 通过卖出期权来增厚收益，目前是15%的年化收益。 Pacer上周也发行一只质量相关产品，是其代表性的现金流因子和质量结合的策略，选择至少10年连续正自由现金 流、自由现金流质量得分最高的100家标普500成分股。自由现金流质量由公司过去5年平均的自由现金流收益率和自 由现金流ROIC合成得到。此外，Pacer上周还发行一只轮动策略产品，在其现金流ETF COWZ和纳斯达克100之间轮 动，进一步扩充其现金流产品线。该策略主要根据动量进行轮动，将指数过去1、3、6、9、12个月的平均收益率等权 合成，然后每 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数集体上涨，港股尾盘拉升！中美贸易谈判迎来重磅进展！本周，还有这些大事要来。 2、科技、军工板块涨幅居前，未来哪些板块机会更大？机构看好三大方向。 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可 领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1348 篇白话财经- - 今天，在中美谈判迎来重要进展的利好下，A股三大指数集体上涨，创业板指涨超2%。 （图片来源：东方财富App，统计截至2025/5/12，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额超1.3万亿，盘面上，军工、科技板块涨幅居前。 机构分析认为 ，坚定中国资产的重估逻辑，预计A股有望在震荡中实现中枢的逐步抬升。 重磅利好！本周还有这些大事！ 今天，中美谈判重大进展的消息振奋人心！ 当地时间10日上午，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行。据中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰11日晚表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有 建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。 点燃了A股市场乐观情绪，今天，三大指数集体收涨。 盘后，谈判再度迎来进展，中美发布联合声明，中美同意暂时降低部分关税90天！ （图 ...