点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 需求：本周线缆开工率环比-3pct，5月国内家用空调产量低于预期 （1）线缆：约占国内铜需求31%，线缆企业2025年6月19日当周开工率为73.26%，环比上周-3.05pct。（2）空 调：约占国内铜需求13%，据产业在线6月18日更新，2025年5月中国家用空调产量为2081.2万台，同 比-1.8%（4月预计的5月排产同比增速+9.9%）；销量2203.4万台，同比+2.3%。（3）铜棒：约占国内铜需求 4.2%，黄铜棒2025年5月开工率50.6%，环比-4.4pct、同比+0.05pct。 截至2025年6月20日，SHFE铜收盘价77990 元/吨，环比6月13日-0.03% ...

Core Viewpoint - China is facing a severe "copper shortage" despite being rich in resources, necessitating strategic responses to ensure copper supply for its industrialization process [1][5][23]. Group 1: Copper Demand and Importance - Copper is the second-best conductor of electricity and heat, making it essential for the power and telecommunications industries, with about half of the global copper supply used in these sectors [3]. - The demand for copper is increasing globally, with China being one of the fastest-growing markets for copper [3]. Group 2: Domestic Copper Resource Challenges - China's domestic copper production and consumption have ranked first globally for several years, but local copper resources are becoming increasingly scarce, leading to a "copper crisis" [5]. - From 2010 to 2020, China's copper concentrate imports surged from 2.92 million tons to 3.627 million tons, an increase of 707,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Characteristics of China's Copper Resources - China's copper resources are concentrated in the southwest, northwest, and eastern regions, but most deposits are small to medium-sized, complicating extraction efforts [16]. - The average ore grade in China is below 0.4%, significantly lower than the global average of 0.87%, which diminishes the economic viability of mining [16]. - The complex terrain where copper deposits are located leads to high extraction costs and development challenges [16]. Group 4: Strategic Responses to Copper Shortage - China has intensified overseas acquisitions of copper mines, investing over $16 billion in more than 30 copper projects globally from 2011 to 2021 [18]. - A notable acquisition is the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, purchased by China Minmetals for $7.005 billion, which is crucial for China's copper supply chain [18]. - Domestic development and technological advancements are also being prioritized, focusing on low-grade ore utilization and improving smelting processes [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The copper shortage is a significant challenge for China's modernization, but through joint development and technological innovation, progress is being made [23]. - Continued efforts in optimizing resource integration and recovery will be essential for sustainable industrial development in the future [20][23].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大股指全线收跌，上证指数下跌 0.07%，报 3359.90 点； 深证成指下跌 0.47%，报 10,005.03 点；创业板指下跌 0.83%，报 2009.89 点。A 股两市全天成交额 1.07 万亿元人民币，南向资金净买 入 15.51 亿港元。A 股两市个股普遍下跌，超 3400 只个股下跌。申 万行业方面，交通运输、食品饮料及银行行业领涨，传媒及计算机行 业跌幅居前；概念板块方面，PET 铜箔、光刻胶概念指数涨幅居前， 可燃冰、脑机接口概念指数跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨 1.26%，恒生科 技指数上涨 0.88%；美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指上涨 0.08%，报 42,206.82 点，标普 500 指数下跌 0.22%，报 5967.84 点，纳指下跌 0.51%，报 19,447.41 点。欧洲股市主要股指普遍收涨、亚太主要股 指普遍下跌。 【重要新闻】 【中国证监会就《证券公司分 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年06月22日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：LME现货偏强，但宏观存不确定性，价格难突破震荡区间 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：76000-80000元/吨 LME铜库存持续回落 LME铜0-3现货升水走强 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 01-01 01-12 01-23 02-03 02-14 02-25 03-08 03-19 03-30 04-10 04-21 05-02 05-13 05-24 06-04 06-15 06-26 07-07 07-18 07-29 08-09 08-20 08-31 09-11 09-22 10-03 10-14 10-25 11-05 11-16 11-27 12-08 12-1 ...

【冠通研究】 多重因素交织，盘面下探阻力位 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 20 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜盘面低开低走午后盘面下挫，特朗普将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗，冲突 有所放缓，但原油价格整体上扬，通胀预期增加，特朗普连续两日要求美联储降息，目 前依然保持年内降息两次的预期。美联储降息后续将影响美元指数走向，指引有色市场 的价格趋势。基本面方面，供给端精铜矿港口库存本周大幅去化，月内铜进口量同样下 降，国内端除进口缩减外，冶炼厂成本费同样加剧市场偏紧预期。需求端，下游开工率 放缓拿货积极性不足，成交量边际走弱，终端电线电缆保持韧性，但家电行业排产缩 水，进入高温阶段，房地产也形成拖累。综合来看，基本面维持供应偏紧预期及需求边 际走弱的逻辑，中东局势暂不明朗，铜关税问题尚未落地，美联储议息按兵不动，市场 不确定性较强，现货行情走弱，期货下探阻力位置，预计沪铜短期震荡偏弱。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开高走小幅收跌。报收于 77990，前二十名多单量 119268 手，-3684 手；空 ...

Group 1 - Kuaishou concept stocks fell by 2.99%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with stocks like Yuanlong Yatu and ST Kevin hitting the limit down [1] - The concept sector saw a net outflow of 1.61 billion yuan, with 42 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 11 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] - The top net outflow stock was Zhongwen Online, with a net outflow of 421 million yuan, followed by Tom Cat and Blue Focus with outflows of 116 million yuan and 88.59 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2 - The top gainers in the Kuaishou concept included Global Printing, Good Idea, and Wanrun Technology, which rose by 2.67%, 0.52%, and 0.43% respectively [1][3] - The overall market sentiment was negative, with several concept sectors like Combustible Ice and Brain-Computer Interface experiencing significant declines of -4.14% and -3.34% respectively [2] - The trading volume for Kuaishou concept stocks was notably high, with some stocks like Yuanlong Yatu showing a turnover rate of 22.32% [3]

Group 1 - The Zhipu AI concept index declined by 3.06%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector as of the market close on June 20 [1][2] - Within the Zhipu AI sector, major declines were observed in stocks such as Beixin Source (-9.54%), Zhidema (-7.74%), and Tuosida (-6.84%) [2][3] - Conversely, two stocks in the sector saw gains, with Qingyun Technology increasing by 2.47% and Zhongji Group by 0.13% [1][4] Group 2 - The Zhipu AI concept experienced a net outflow of 2.009 billion yuan, with 54 stocks facing net outflows, and 13 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2][3] - The largest net outflow was from Tuosida, which saw a net outflow of 263 million yuan, followed by Beixin Source and Yuxin Technology with outflows of 181 million yuan and 178 million yuan respectively [2][3] - In contrast, the stocks with the highest net inflows included Zhongji Group (37.59 million yuan), Qingyun Technology (12.79 million yuan), and Jinxiandai (8.38 million yuan) [4]

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PET铜箔 | 2.09 | 可燃冰 | -4.14 | | 光刻胶 | 1.45 | 脑机接口 | -3.34 | | BC电池 | 1.13 | 短剧游戏 | -3.07 | | 钙钛矿电池 | 1.06 | 智谱AI | -3.06 | | 航运概念 | 1.02 | 快手概念 | -2.99 | | 白酒概念 | 0.83 | MLOps概念 | -2.97 | | 兵装重组概念 | 0.80 | 华为盘古 | -2.80 | | 先进封装 | 0.79 | 财税数字化 | -2.79 | | 石墨电极 | 0.65 | 云办公 | -2.66 | | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | 0.64 | 小红书概念 | -2.53 | 资金面上看，今日脑机接口概念板块获主力资金净流出5.46亿元，其中，23股获主力资金净流出，7股 主力资金净流出超3000万元，净流出资金居首的是汉威科技，今日主力资金净流出1.33亿元，净流出资 金居前的还有创新医疗、汤姆猫、诚 ...

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 002846 | 英联股 份 | 9.98 | 18.02 | 25751.78 | 41.31 | | 300120 | 经纬辉 开 | 10.84 | 17.04 | 11572.80 | 14.48 | | 600110 | 诺德股 份 | 10.04 | 7.62 | 8912.69 | 13.23 | | 301511 | 德福科 技 | 9.55 | 13.10 | 6744.83 | 8.36 | | 002741 | 光华科 技 | 6.12 | 14.23 | 5557.64 | 4.71 | | 603773 | 沃格光 电 | 4.18 | 4.75 | 3040.64 | 14.09 | | 301389 | 隆扬电 | 6.96 | 28.40 | 2946.17 | 5.24 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业专题报告 全球十五大铜矿企业一季报汇总 海外铜矿企业有两家产量下滑多，增长主要 依靠中资企业 投 资 要 点 本文总结了智利和智利两个大型产铜国2025年1-4月的月度铜矿项目产量情况，以及12家海外大型铜矿企业和3家中资企业2025年一季度铜矿产量。 秘鲁产量恢复增长，智利产量保持增长势头： 智利1-4月铜矿产量175.2万金属吨，同比+3.57%（+6.03万吨），仍然保持了2024年的增长势头。而秘鲁在经历了2024年产量罕见下滑之后，2025年前4个月产量恢 复增长，1-4月秘鲁铜矿产量89.2万金属吨，同比+5.59%，+4.72万吨。智利的铜矿增长主要来自Escondida项目，主要是更高的采矿强度和原矿入选品位。秘鲁的铜 矿产量增长主要来源于Las Bambas和Toromocho两个大型铜矿的产量增长。同时，智利的Collahuasi铜矿因为入选品位下降，以及秘鲁的Antapaccay铜矿因为原矿剥 采比提升等因素产量出现了不同程度的下滑。 十二家海外铜矿企业产量同比下滑： 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年6月20日 ◼ 分析师：傅鸿浩 ◼ S ...