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铝周报:关税尾部风险仍存,铝价低位震荡-20250414
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 06:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff measures initially caused market panic, but the extension of tariffs for most countries and good US inflation data eased market sentiment. The domestic expectation of loose policies remains high. The aluminum supply side mainly involves capacity transfer, with little change in operating capacity. On the consumption side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises have stable new orders and increased willingness to buy at low prices, leading to a significant reduction in aluminum social inventory. Although the risk sentiment has cooled, attention should be paid to the direction of China - US trade negotiations and potential tail - risks of tariffs. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton, supported by factors such as low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 2385.5 to 2397 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20330 to 19595 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.3 to 8.2, LME spot premium decreased from - 31.71 to - 37.46 dollars/ton, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14525 tons to 442225 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 26388 tons to 105244 tons, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 74.4 tons, and aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.94 tons to 23.51 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review - In the spot market, the Yangtze River spot weekly average price was 19758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 799.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price was 19698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 824.5 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the US's tariff measures and the European's response affected the market. The US March CPI growth rate decreased significantly, but inflation may rise after tariff increases. The market is still cautious [5]. - In the consumption end, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.38% to 62.2%. The industry will continue the pattern of "demand stratification and profit reconstruction". Three variables need to be focused on, and the SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop to 61.5% next week [6]. - In terms of inventory, on April 7, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3.0 tons compared with Monday and 2.1 tons compared with last Thursday; the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.29 tons compared with Monday [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The extension of tariffs by Trump has cooled the market risk sentiment, but attention should be paid to the China - US trade negotiation and potential tariff tail - risks. The fundamentals of low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In March, the retail sales of the passenger vehicle market reached 1.94 million, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 991,000, with a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 51.1%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The 350,000 - ton green - power aluminum project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Company plans to complete the civil engineering in early July [9]. 3.5 Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trend, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [10][11][15].
新股覆盖研究:江顺科技
Huajin Securities· 2025-04-14 00:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the expected return over the next 6-12 months is greater than 15% compared to the relevant market index [34]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Jiangshun Technology, specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum extrusion molds and accessories, supporting equipment, and precision mechanical components. It has established a strong market position and is expected to benefit from the accelerating trend of "using aluminum instead of steel" [2][7][25]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with projected revenues of 892 million, 1,042 million, and 1,136 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 20.35%, 16.82%, and 9.01% [8][31]. - The company has a solid customer base, including major domestic and international aluminum manufacturers, and holds a market share of approximately 6% in the domestic aluminum extrusion mold sector [26][27]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company reported revenues of 892 million yuan in 2022, 1,042 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 1,136 million yuan in 2024, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 20.35%, 16.82%, and 9.01% [8][31]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 139 million yuan in 2022, 146 million yuan in 2023, and is expected to be 155 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.95%, 5.14%, and 6.30% [8][31]. Industry Situation - The aluminum extrusion mold industry is experiencing growth due to the increasing demand from various sectors, including construction, transportation, and renewable energy. The market size of the mold industry in China has been steadily increasing, with projections indicating continued growth in the coming years [17][21]. Company Highlights - Jiangshun Technology is one of the few companies in China that can provide a one-stop service for extrusion molds and supporting equipment, which positions it well to benefit from the shift towards aluminum in various applications [25][26]. - The company has high capacity utilization rates, exceeding 90%, and has initiated projects to expand production capacity, which will significantly enhance its operational capabilities [27][28]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in two main projects: the expansion of precision mold production and the construction of an aluminum extrusion equipment production line, with a total investment of approximately 560 million yuan [28][29]. Comparison with Peers - Compared to similar companies in the industry, Jiangshun Technology's revenue and gross margin are positioned in the mid-to-high range, indicating a competitive standing within the market [31][32].
全国氧化铝厂陷入大面积亏损,过剩压力稍有缓和
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-06 11:42
周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 全国氧化铝厂陷入大面积亏损, 过剩压力稍有缓和 | [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] | 氧化铝:震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 年 4 | 月 | 6 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料:上周国内矿石价格下调,山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 730 元/ 吨,河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨(较上周下调 10 元), 贵 州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。矿山资源整合政 策持续深化,部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全等合规要求暂处 停产状态,在产矿山开工率较春节前略低,短期铝土矿价格仍处 于下行区间。进口方面,大型铝土矿企业长单陆续签订,整体价 格区间集中在 88-95 美元/干吨。零单方面,近段时间市场传出 85-86 美元/干吨的成交。几内亚矿山开采成本多集中于 30-45 美 元/吨,个别高成本矿山开采成本在 50 美元/吨之上,当前 CIF 价格距离矿山成本仍有一定空间。到货方面,期内新到矿石 342.4 万吨,其中新到几内亚资源 247.2 万吨, ...
【神火股份(000933.SZ)】煤炭板块拖累2024年业绩, 2025年电解铝利润有望走扩——2024年报点评(王招华/马俊)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-01 09:14
点击注册小程序 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件: 公司发布 2024年年报 , 2024年公司实现营业收入383.73亿元,同比+1.99%,实现归母净利润43.07亿元,同 比-27.07%。 点评: 煤炭板块量价齐跌拖累 2024年业绩 发布日期: 2025-04-01 2024年业绩下滑主要系煤炭产品的价格、产销量同比下降,铝产品的主要原材料氧化铝价格同比上涨。2024年 公司实现煤炭产销量分别为673.9/670.13万吨,同比-6.01%/-7.54%;实现铝产品产销量162.85/162.89万吨,同 比+7.28%/+6.65%。公司2024年煤炭产品均价1019.3元/吨,同比-7.8%。2024年河南氧化铝平均价为4070.6元/ 吨,同比+37.4%。 今年年初 ...
天马新材20250331
2025-04-01 07:43
Summary of Tianma New Materials Conference Call Company Overview - Tianma New Materials focuses on the research, production, and sales of fine aluminum oxide powder materials, covering seven categories including electronic ceramics, electronic glass, high thermal conductivity lithium battery separators, and high voltage electrical appliances [3][4] Key Financial Highlights - Revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 35% to 250 million yuan, driven by a recovery in downstream consumer electronics demand and government subsidy policies [3][4] - The sales volume is expected to increase by 30%-40% to approximately 40,000 tons in 2024, aided by the new 50,000-ton electronic ceramics production line [3][7] - The average selling price of electronic ceramics powder is approximately 6,000 yuan per ton, reflecting price adjustments due to significant raw material cost increases [5][10] Raw Material Price Dynamics - Raw material prices fluctuated significantly in 2024, starting at 2,600 yuan per ton and rising to nearly 6,000 yuan by year-end, impacting the company's cost structure [6][10] - The company anticipates raw material prices to stabilize around 3,000 yuan per ton in 2025 [6] Product Performance and Market Trends - Electronic ceramics accounted for 55% of sales in 2024, with a notable increase in ceramic substrate powder sales, which grew by 92% year-on-year [8][9] - Major clients, Zhejiang Xinda and Jiuhau, reported over 50% growth in orders, indicating strong demand in the electronic ceramics sector [9] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin declined due to mismatches in product cycles and the inability to fully pass on raw material cost increases to downstream customers, resulting in a 2% drop in gross margin [10] - The company is implementing strategies to manage costs, including stockpiling semi-finished products and expediting the sale of existing inventory [10][11] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company has completed the construction of a 50,000-ton electronic ceramics production line and is in the trial production phase for a 5,000-ton spherical aluminum production line, expected to be operational in 2025 [3][4][15] - In 2025, the company plans to focus on high-value-added products and expand into high-end spherical aluminum markets, with expectations of releasing over half of its production capacity for sales [25][26] Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The company faces uncertainties related to equipment maintenance and repairs, which may affect production capacity in 2025 [16][26] - The strategy for 2025 includes adjusting the product mix towards high-value products and expanding customer reserves, particularly in the fields of aluminum hydroxide polishing and third-generation semiconductor packaging materials [25] Conclusion - Tianma New Materials is positioned for growth in 2024 and 2025, driven by strong demand in the electronic ceramics market and strategic adjustments to product offerings and production capacity. However, the company must navigate challenges related to raw material costs and production uncertainties.
重磅利好,突然发布!
券商中国· 2025-03-28 03:49
重磅发布 利好突现,直线涨停! 刚刚,工信部等十部门印发《铝产业高质量发展实施方案(2025—2027年)》。到2027年,产业链供应链韧性和安 全水平明显提升,产业链整体发展水平全球领先。铝资源保障能力大幅提高,力争国内铝土矿资源量增长3%— 5%,再生铝产量1500万吨以上。产业结构进一步优化,铝加工产业集聚区建设水平进一步提升。 方案还提到,加快推动国内铝土矿资源增储上产。受此刺激,闽发铝业直线封板,常铝股份直线拉升。分析人士认 为,上述方向无疑有利于铝行业的发展,且能给有色行业提供一定的示范效应。前一段时间,国内市场传出工业金 属战备收储的消息,虽未获权威证实,但亦激起了市场的做多情绪。 分发挥我国铝产业基础好、市场规模大等优势,引导产业加快转型升级,推动产业实现质的有效提升和量的合 理增长。 《实施方案》指出,一是明确发展定位。聚焦落实国家"十四五"规划和2035年远景目标纲要,以及原材料工业发展 规划、碳达峰实施方案、数字化转型实施指南等有关要求,提出促进铝产业高质量发展的三年目标任务。二是强化 系统谋划。立足全产业链,统筹国内国际两种资源、两个市场,系统谋划提升铝资源开发、冶炼加工、材料制备、 ...
铝行业快评:从加工材产量看铝下游需求走势
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-04 08:35
事项: 2025 年 2 月 28 日有色金属加工业协会公布 2024 年铝加工材各品类产量。 国信金属观点:1)铝材产量对应铝的初级需求,2024 年中国铝材产量增速为 4.4%,2020-2024 CAGR 达到 3.9%,增长稳健。2)虽然地产领域拖累铝需求 6%,但工业铝型材产量历史首度超越建筑铝型材产量,其 增量弥补了建筑铝型材减量。除此之外其他铝材产量均有增长,反映的是铝作为轻量化的结构材料,或导 电导热良好的功能材料,应用范围不断拓展。3)展望 2025 年,新能源汽车增速可能放缓,光伏领域可能 没有增量用铝需求,但电力领域投资有望维持高增速,家电继续受益"国补",尤其地产对铝需求拖累高 峰期已过。预计 2025 年需求增速与前几年不会偏离太大。4)2025 年是中国原铝供应见顶的一年,供应增 速不到 2%,预计铝行业大概率出现供需缺口,铝价及铝冶炼利润有望维持或者创新高,建议继续关注电解 铝标的:中国宏桥、中孚实业、天山铝业、中国铝业、云铝股份、神火股份、南山铝业。5)风险提示: 全球宏观经济波动导致铝需求不及预期风险,铝冶炼成本项抬升风险,安全和环保风险。 评论: 铝挤压材:工业材和建筑材冰 ...
美利信:首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市招股说明书
2023-04-17 12:52
本次股票发行后拟在创业板市场上市,该市场具有较高的投资风险。创业板公司具有 创新投入大、新旧产业融合成功与否存在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不 稳定、退市风险高等特点,投资者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板市场的 投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素,审慎作出投资决定。 重庆美利信科技股份有限公司 (重庆市巴南区天安路 1 号附 1 号、附 2 号) 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股说明书 中国(上海)自由贸易试验区世纪大道 1198 号 28 层 保荐人(主承销商) 重庆美利信科技股份有限公司 招股说明书 声明及承诺 发行人及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员承诺招股说明书及其他信息披露 资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏,并承担相应的法律责任。 发行人控股股东、实际控制人承诺本招股说明书不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏,并承担相应的法律责任。 创业板投资风险提示 重庆美利信科技股份有限公司 招股说明书 本次发行概况 | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股(A 股) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发行数量 | 本次发行股票数量 5 ...