V i e w p o i n t | 02 May 2025 13:06:59 ET │ 23 pages US Economics Weekly Three stages of tariff impacts CITI'S TAKE Market optimism is building in anticipation of upcoming trade deals and as hard data have not yet weakened in line with much softer survey data. Real GDP contracted a modest 0.3% in Q1 on strong imports, while private domestic demand rose a strong 3.0%. April employment grew by 177k jobs, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. But we would caution that recent data have not reflec ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record low of -$140.5 billion in March, surpassing the previous estimate of -$137.6 billion and the revised prior record of -$123.2 billion [2] - The trade deficit metric has been consistently reported since 1992, indicating ongoing trade challenges [3] Company Earnings Reports - DoorDash (DASH) reported Q1 earnings of 44 cents per share, beating estimates by 10%, but revenues of $3.03 billion fell short by nearly 2%. The company announced acquisitions of Deliveroo for $3.9 billion and SevenRooms for $1.2 billion [3] - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported earnings of 70 cents per share, slightly beating estimates but significantly lower than the $1.46 per share from the previous year. Revenues of $20.18 billion missed expectations by 2.5% [4] - Marriott International (MAR) reported Q1 earnings of $2.32 per share, exceeding estimates by 5 cents, with revenues of $6.26 billion, which was slightly below expectations but an increase from $5.98 billion a year ago [5] Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is underway, with no expected changes to the Fed funds rate, which has been stable in the 4.25-4.50% range since December [6][7] - The U.S. dollar has shown some instability due to new global trade realities, but bond yields remain stable, indicating no immediate pressure for rate changes [8] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Electronic Arts (EA), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN), with The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reporting the following day [9]

Core Points - Senator Thom Tillis, a key Republican, announced he would not support Ed Martin's nomination as U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, significantly jeopardizing Martin's chances for Senate confirmation [1][2] - Tillis expressed concerns over Martin's support for defendants involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, which was incited by former President Trump [1][2] - The likelihood of Martin's nomination being reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee is low, as Tillis's opposition could lead to a tie vote, which would prevent the nomination from advancing [2][3] Summary by Sections Nomination Status - Tillis's refusal to support Martin's nomination is seen as a potentially fatal blow to his confirmation prospects [1][2] - With Tillis as a "no" vote, the best possible outcome for Martin from the committee would be a tie vote of 11-11, which would not allow the nomination to proceed [3] Concerns Raised - Tillis highlighted that while Martin acknowledged some individuals were over-prosecuted, he believed that 200 to 300 individuals should not have received pardons [3] - Tillis stated that if Martin were nominated for any district other than the one where the January 6 events occurred, he would likely support him [4] Sentiments on January 6 - Tillis expressed a strong stance against those who entered the Capitol on January 6, indicating that they should face imprisonment, although he noted the duration of imprisonment could be debated [5]

FICC Research Economics 2 May 2025 US Outlook Holding patterns Tariff crosscurrents continued to complicate the dataflow into April, sending mixed signals about activity amid a strong frontrunning dynamic. This week's combination of solid labor market data and weak GDP is unlikely to draw the Fed from the sidelines. We now assume the next cut will be in July. Another solid month for the labor market... Nonfarm payroll employment posted a solid 177k gain in April (Barclays: 125k; consensus: 138k), confoundin ...

Global Markets Strategy 27 Apr 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Dashboard | Wendy Liu AC | | --- | | (852) 2800 1087 | | wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com | | J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morgan | | B ...

When it comes to banking giants, JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are often at the top of mind. As two of the most diversified financial institutions in the United States, they offer a broad spectrum of services, including retail banking, investment banking (IB) and wealth management on a global scale.JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by assets, commands a leading position in the IB sector. In contrast, Bank of America—the second-largest by assets—boasts one of the most extensive retail banking networ ...

Company Overview - KBR, Inc. (NYSE: KBR) has experienced a decline in share price since mid-November 2024, primarily due to investor concerns regarding potential cuts in federal spending by the new administration in Washington, D.C. [1] Revenue Dependency - The company's revenues are significantly reliant on federal spending, which raises concerns about its financial performance in light of potential budget reductions [1]

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 上海报道 4月30日24时，国内汽柴油零售限价调整将达成年内第二次搁浅。 此次搁浅过后，国内成品油调价呈现"三涨四跌二搁浅"的格局，国内汽、柴油价格每吨较年初相比分别 下调425元、410元。 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来看，期初欧佩 克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到支撑，但近期欧佩克成员国之间因遵守生产配额问题 而关系紧张，几个成员国将提议在6月增加原油产量，以及哈萨克斯坦一季度原油出口同比激增7%，供 应预期增加令油价再度承压。此外，美国所谓"对等关税"政策的不确定性令全球经济增长与燃料需求前 景蒙阴，叠加美国原油库存连续第五周攀升，利空因素居于主导，令原油价格走势承压。受原油走势影 响，变化率正向区间接连收窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政策依然带有不确定 性，沙特增产等多因素叠加，国际油价或承压运行，短期原油仍延续弱势震荡走势。新周期伊始，国内 测算的原油变化率将以负值开局。由于下一轮调价周期横跨"五一"小长假，调价周期较长，国际原油市 场的波动性较大，后市油价走势仍有 ...

Group 1 - The CEF/ETF Income Laboratory manages portfolios targeting safe and reliable yields of approximately 8% to facilitate income investing [2] - The service includes managed portfolios, actionable income and arbitrage recommendations, and in-depth analysis of closed-end funds (CEFs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2] - The community consists of over a thousand members focused on finding the best income ideas, catering to both active and passive investors [2] Group 2 - The potential for increased inflation due to announced tariffs may lead to the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period [2] - The majority of holdings in the CEF/ETF Income Laboratory are monthly-payers, which aids in faster compounding and smoothing income streams [2]

I ventured into investing in high school in 2011, mainly in REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, starting a fascination with markets and the economy that has not faded despite the years. More recently I have been combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts. I approach investing purely from a fundamental long-term point of view. On Seeking Alpha I mostly cover REITs and financials, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks driven by a macro trade idea.Analyst’s D ...