金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3998.45 | ↑0.84 | | 2920.9 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3982.4 | ↑0.91 | -16.05 | 384.8 | 32292 | ↑7957 | 63961 | ↑4594 | | IF2508 | 3964.4 | ↑0.90 | -34.05 | 36.1 | 3045 | ↑983 | 7134 | ↑1280 | | IF2509 | 3958.6 | ↑1.00 | -39.85 | 598.8 | 50571 | ↑14802 | 142398 | ↑6572 | ...

期货研究报告|丙烯专题 2025-07-09 丙烯系列报告-丙烯下游需求介绍 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 本篇为丙烯系列报告第三篇，主要介绍丙烯下游需求情况，包括下游消费量、消费增速、 消费结构，以及聚丙烯、环氧丙烷、丁辛醇、丙烯酸、丙烯腈、苯酚、丙酮、环氧氯丙 烷等下游品种，对丙烯下游产业链进行全面解读。 丙烯下游应用广泛，主要用于生产聚丙烯，此外还可合成环氧丙烷、丙烯腈、丙烯酸、 苯酚、丙酮等化学品，主要应用于塑料、医药、农业等领域。 随着中国经济社会高速发展，国内丙烯需求增长强劲，消费量与表 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 保加利亚正式启用欧盟目前最大规模的在运营电池储能系统，该设施位于中 北部城市洛维奇的巴尔干工业园区，容量为 124 兆瓦/496.2 兆瓦时，由 111 个储能集装箱组成。该项目由保加利亚能源部长泽乔·斯坦科夫主持揭幕， 标志着保加利亚向在一年内部署 10,000 兆瓦时电池储能容量目标迈出的第 一步。此前，该国在一项储能招标中已授出近 9,713 兆瓦时的项目。该储能 系统由 Advance Green Energy AD 开发，该公司由保加利亚企业家基里尔·多 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 ...

去年访问中国期间，加尔布佐夫实地考察了北京科技园区的产业集群与运作模式。他说："中国的 发展模式为我们提供了重要启示——这些园区不仅是生产设施的集聚地，更是融合了社会服务功能的完 整城市单元。" 他表示，莫斯科市在规划经济特区时正系统借鉴中国经验：既着力建设一流的工业基础设施与现代 化厂房，也统筹配套员工休闲场所及社区综合服务设施。 加尔布佐夫高度评价中国坚持自主产业发展的道路。他认为，在全球产业链重构背景下，中国坚持 发展本土工业体系的战略定力令人钦佩。 第九届中俄博览会7月7日至10日在俄罗斯叶卡捷琳堡市举行。莫斯科市政府部长、投资和工业政策 局局长阿纳托利·加尔布佐夫在博览会开幕前夕接受新华社记者采访时表示，中俄博览会是俄罗斯与中 国在生产和投资领域建立长期伙伴关系的重要平台，对深化俄中两国务实合作具有重要意义。 加尔布佐夫介绍，莫斯科市此次组织27家企业参展，涵盖光子学、制药等领域。 加尔布佐夫强调，中方是莫斯科市的重要贸易伙伴，莫斯科市生产的产品约半数出口到中国。他 说："我们愿与中国合作伙伴分享成果，通过经贸合作促进俄罗斯本土生产升级。" 新华社莫斯科7月8日电 专访｜中俄博览会对深化两国务实合作 ...

Group 1 - Xichang aims to build a modern socialist city focused on common prosperity, positioning itself as a central hub for commercial aerospace and a key area for health tourism in Sichuan [1] - The city has three core advantages for the commercial aerospace industry: proximity to the Xichang Satellite Launch Center, abundant resources, and a long industrial chain, including a 50 billion-level vanadium-titanium rare earth industry cluster [1] - The Xichang Satellite Technology Co. has completed 70% of its satellite base factory, with the first satellite expected to be launched by the end of the year, and several projects in the commercial aerospace sector are progressing rapidly [1] Group 2 - Xichang plans to establish a complete industrial ecosystem encompassing aerospace materials, rocket manufacturing, launch services, space information, and aerospace tourism [2] - The city is targeting the introduction of leading enterprises in satellite and rocket manufacturing, while also developing high-level innovation platforms to enhance local capabilities [2] - Xichang has prioritized the vanadium-titanium new materials industry as a key component of its modern industrial system, with significant projects underway to bolster production capacity [2] Group 3 - The city is enhancing its industrial chain by attracting major projects, such as aerospace-grade titanium alloys and high-purity titanium, to create a more competitive industrial landscape [3] - Xichang is implementing an "Industrial Economy Doubling Action" to develop billion-level industrial clusters and promote high-quality growth in the vanadium-titanium industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical is expected to significantly increase its profitability in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising prices and sales of its core product, glyphosate, alongside cost optimization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Lier Chemical's revenue was 7.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.55% year-on-year, and the net profit was 604 million yuan, down 66.68% [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a decline of 6.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, a drop of 64.34% [2]. - The company anticipates a strong recovery in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The price of glyphosate remains low, but the price of Lier Chemical's other core product, glufosinate, has rebounded from 23,500 yuan per ton in April 2025 to 25,500 yuan per ton by July 7, 2025, marking an increase of 8.5% [3]. - The company has expanded its market share in key regions such as Brazil and Argentina through a dual strategy of targeting large clients and overseas registrations [3]. - Domestic demand for glufosinate is rapidly increasing due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, supporting the company's production capacity growth [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Lier Chemical has established seven production bases in China, enhancing its competitive edge and ensuring a stable global supply chain [1][4]. - The company holds over 50% market share in glufosinate domestically and approximately 30% globally, benefiting from economies of scale [4]. - As of 2024, Lier Chemical's production capacities include 86,300 tons for active ingredients, 81,200 tons for formulations, and 123,500 tons for chemical products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43.4%, 36.2%, and 50.6% [4]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to further expand its industry chain, including a proposed acquisition of Shandong Huimeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, approaching 3500 points, with a closing price of 3497.48 points, marking a significant increase in investor confidence [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.39%, with a total of 4283 stocks rising in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector saw a substantial surge, with the overall solar concept index rising by 2.06%, and 460 constituent stocks increasing in value [3] - Notable stocks included Shihang New Energy, which hit the 20% daily limit, and several others like Tongwei Co. and Aiko Solar, which also saw significant gains [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting focused on promoting high-quality development in the solar industry, indicating potential future growth [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector experienced a strong performance, particularly in the computing power supply chain, with significant gains in PCB and semiconductor stocks [4] - Key drivers included better-than-expected earnings forecasts from leading companies and the initiation of the IPO process for a major DRAM manufacturer, which positively impacted the semiconductor industry [4] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw a notable increase, with a 2.77% overall rise, driven by stocks like Icefire Network and Electric Soul Network [5] - The approval of 158 new games by the National Press and Publication Administration marked a significant milestone, indicating a potential boost for the industry [6] - Huawei's announcement regarding the upcoming showcase of HarmonyOS games at the 2025 ChinaJoy exhibition further highlights the sector's growth potential [5][6]

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 主余凤 七月，沂南县的露地黄瓜迎来采收高峰期。这里的黄瓜凭借着独特的品质，既能在鲜食市场"大放异 彩"，又能在酱菜领域"闯出一片天"，深受市场欢迎。 历经80余年种植技艺的传承积淀，沂南已成为全国最大的夏、秋黄瓜生产基地，带动全产业链产值超百 亿元。通过科技赋能提质增效、产业升级集群发展，沂南黄瓜正以蓬勃之势，书写着农业强、农村美、 农民富的生动答卷。 小黄瓜结出百亿金链条 "这是我们的新品种——中农脆玉3号小黄瓜，别看它个头小，但它口感脆甜，而且所含'丙醇二酸'是大 黄瓜的3倍-5倍，对减脂美容非常有帮助……"在山东省沂南县辛集镇房庄子村党支部书记谢吉海的手 边，一盘翠绿的黄瓜水灵灵地摆在桌面，让人垂涎欲滴。 "在我们村，家家户户都感谢黄瓜！"谢吉海拿起一根黄瓜向记者展示，"这小小的黄瓜，可是我们的'致 富瓜'！" 种植户谢吉安就是受益者："俺种了1亩地的温室黄瓜，这几年行情好，每年能卖6万多！种黄瓜可比种 别的作物收益高，日子都跟着有盼头！" 说起沂南黄瓜的种植历史，可以追溯到20世纪30年代。1934年，当地农民首次尝试种植黄瓜，开启了沂 南黄瓜产业的发展序幕。20世纪80年代后期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shengnong Development, expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a rise of 732.89% to 830.88% compared to the same period last year, driven by strong retail growth and strategic acquisitions [1][4]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is between 850 million to 950 million yuan, compared to 102.05 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is estimated to be between 330 million to 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 256% to 353.35% from 92.64 million yuan [4]. Business Operations - Shengnong Development is part of the largest white feather chicken company in Asia, with a fully integrated supply chain from breeding to sales [4]. - The company has seen continuous growth in its retail channels, as well as stable growth in export and catering sectors, leading to an optimized revenue structure [5]. Cost Management - The company has implemented lean management practices, which, along with increased self-research and development of the new generation breeding chicken "Shenze 901 Plus," have significantly reduced overall meat production costs compared to the previous year [5]. Strategic Acquisitions - Shengnong Development completed the acquisition of a 54% stake in Sun Valley for 1.126 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance synergies and positively impact non-recurring gains for 2025 [6]. - The acquisition adds significant production capacity, with Sun Valley having an annual output of 65 million chickens and food processing capabilities of 90,000 tons per year [6]. Market Conditions - The white feather chicken market is currently experiencing a downward price trend, with significant declines in both chick and meat prices, leading to cautious replenishment by farmers [5][6].

供需边际转弱对冲油价修复作用，PTA盘面偏弱运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn PTA：PTA走势或承压偏弱，原油走弱削弱成本驱动，叠加纺织成交持续低 于均值表明终端需求疲软，产业链负反馈下PTA加工费可能被压缩，但低库 存及高基差限制下行空间。 2. 聚酯 07月07日，短纤主力合约收6518.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.06%。华东 市场现货价为6695.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌15.0元/吨，基差为177.0 元/吨。 聚酯产业链呈现供应趋松、库存分化的特点。供应方面，PX期货价从6月27 日至7月7日由6752元/吨降至6684元/吨，PTA同期由4778元/吨跌至4710元/ 吨，产业链成本端支撑松动。 需求方面，轻纺城成交量MA15指标从6月27日609万米持续攀升至7月7日643 万米，下游纺织补库需求逐步释放。 库存方面，涤纶短纤库存天数7.99天远超五年均值4.96天，但长丝品类中 DTY(28.6天)、FDY(22.4天)、POY ...