山金期货黑色板块日报 投资咨询系列报告 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月09日08时23分 报告导读： 上周中央财经委召开会议，要求加大落后产能淘汰力度，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争。市场把本次会议理解为要推出新一轮供给侧改革 。但本 次会议的主要目标并不是在黑色、建材等产业链上游推进供给侧改革 ，而是要在光伏、新能源汽车等下游的制造环节反内卷 。因此，黑色系商品价 格的上涨或并不具备持续性。 5 月的经济数据整体略不及预期，6 月的 PMI 数据环比有所改善。5 月各线房价环比均回落，1-6 月 top100 房企总销 售额同比下降 11.8%，降幅比 上月有所扩大，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有 所上升，厂库下降，社库增加，总库存迹象下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温 天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 。从技术上看，期价短线拉升之后有所 调整，显示上方仍存在较大阻力。 操作建议： 激进的投资者可尝试短线做多，逢高及时止 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250709："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/9 今值 | 指标 | 单位 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,215.00 | 2.11% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 285.00 | -170.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 38.00 | 10.14% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 38,385.00 -385.00 | 5.12% 1,630.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | ...

文字早评 2025/07/09 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、美财长称未来数周拟与中方会谈 推动中美贸易等议题磋商。 2、北方稀土：6 月份稀土产品出口接单有了一定的恢复 公司对未来稀土价格走势持乐观看法。 3、乘联分会：6 月全国乘用车市场零售 211 万辆 同比增长 18.6%。 4、关于硅料收储 通威股份回应：没有更确切消息。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.40%/-0.85%/-1.00%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.33%/-1.19%/-2.00%/-4.15%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.44%/-1.53%/-2.68%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.52%/-0.71%/-0.71%/-0.70%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金有望流入 高收益资产，经济也有望在众多政策的助力下企稳。建议逢低做多与经济高度相关的 IH 或者 IF 股指期 货，亦可择机做多 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-09 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 44905 吨, 环比增加 8464 吨。主力合约持仓量为 216.8547 万手，环比减少 28783 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比持平; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比持平。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 0 元/吨（0%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比持平。主力合约持仓量为 159.3691 万手，环比增加 8136 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从 ...

展望后市，分析人士认为，情绪价值与体验消费精准触达当下需求痛点，其商业价值正在快速兑现，新 消费板块趋势性行情有望延续。 ● 谭丁豪 葛瑶 2025年新消费板块成港股关注焦点，7月8日老铺黄金股价盘中再创历史新高。消费逻辑正悄然发生转 变，供给侧改革成为驱动行业增长的核心引擎。同时，政策支持、消费倾向转变与产业创新三重因素共 振，推动新消费板块持续走强。 供给端驱动消费升级 7月8日，老铺黄金上涨4.54%，盘中股价触及1108港元/股，再创历史新高。今年以来，"港股三姐妹"中 的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金分别累计上涨201.96%、352.48%，蜜雪集团股价距发行价累计上涨166.17%；此 外，多只新消费标的表现同样亮眼，毛戈平累计上涨81.67%，布鲁可、古茗距发行价分别累计上涨 142.92%、178.67%。 中信建投证券纺服轻工及教育行业首席分析师叶乐认为，新消费业态的出现主要源于两方面因素：一是 消费行业投资逻辑正从需求端逐步转向供给端。过去消费增长多由需求拉动，而近年来需求端增速放 缓，市场更关注具备产品创新、技术创新能力的企业。这类企业能够通过创新开拓新需求，实现非线性 高增长。二是"95后""0 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise on July 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, driven by a surge in the "anti-involution" concept sector, particularly the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1] - Multiple stocks in the photovoltaic supply chain experienced significant gains, with Yamaton achieving a rare "limit-up" performance, and the PV leader ETF rising over 5% [1] - The main contract for polysilicon reached its limit-up price, increasing by 7% to 38,385 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on July 3 to discuss accelerating high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a focus on structural reforms [4] - JinkoSolar noted that silicon material prices are dynamically related to industry inventory levels and downstream operating rates, suggesting a consensus in the industry for "anti-involution" to drive long-term price recovery [4] - Huachuang Securities reported that recent calls for "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic sector, including silicon material storage and glass production cuts, have strengthened expectations for supply-side structural reforms [4] Group 3 - On June 29, a significant article highlighted that the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers decided to collectively reduce production by 30% due to market supply-demand imbalances [5] - The head of the Guangzhou Institute of Energy Research stated that the reduction aims to seek greater survival space amid an oversupply situation in the photovoltaic industry [5] - Guolian Minsheng Securities emphasized that the photovoltaic glass industry has notable first-mover advantages and significant economies of scale, with leading companies gaining a competitive edge in supply chain management [5]

Core Viewpoint - Peter Navarro criticizes Jerome Powell, suggesting he may become the worst Federal Reserve Chairman in history if he continues with tight monetary policy despite data suggesting a need for rate cuts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Comparisons - Navarro compares Powell to past Federal Reserve Chairmen, including Arthur Burns, who maintained low interest rates leading to inflation, and Alan Greenspan, who raised rates unnecessarily, contributing to the dot-com bubble and subsequent recession [4]. - Ben Bernanke is mentioned for failing to foresee the 2008 financial crisis, which escalated due to his inaction [5]. Group 2: Powell's Tenure - Powell's tenure began with a commitment to a supportive stance, but he aggressively raised rates during a period of low inflation and high growth under Trump, misjudging the economic impact of tax cuts and deregulation [4][6]. - In 2018, despite moderate inflation and a strong labor market, Powell's Federal Reserve raised rates four times, leading to a significant slowdown in economic momentum, with GDP growth expectations dropping from over 3% to 1.5% [6].

有色金属周报(工业硅&多晶硅) 情绪带动，硅系价格走势坚挺 2025年7月8日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 工业硅 | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，电力成本逐步下移， |  供给端：7月部分企业出现增产，主要集中在西南地区和青 | | | 硅煤、硅石等原料价格亦有下探。成本端对硅价支撑不足。 | 海地区，也有部分企业停产检修，增减相抵后，预计月产 | |  | 供给端：西南地区个别地区开始实行丰水期优惠电价，且厂家 | 量增至11万吨左右。 | | | 有长单需交付，开炉增加，此外，北方内蒙古、甘肃及宁夏地 |  需求端：偏弱。终端来看，在行业抢装下，1-5月光伏新增 | | | 区开炉亦有增加，贡献主要增量；新疆地区个别小厂开炉增加， | 装机197.79GW，累计同比增加142.72%，严重透支下半年 | | | 大厂开炉减少，预计后期供应或增加。 | 需求，国内订单萎缩明显，海外订单相对稳定，远期组件 | |  | 需求端：7月多晶硅头部企业有增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant surge due to the "anti-involution" trend, which aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote high-quality development [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share photovoltaic sector saw a broad rally, with stocks like Topray Solar and Tongwei Co. hitting the daily limit, while Daqo New Energy and Aiko Solar rose over 10% [1][2]. - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index increased by over 5% in a single day, and the photovoltaic ETF funds also saw gains of around 5% [2]. - In the Hong Kong market, the photovoltaic solar energy index rose by 6.17%, with companies like Shunfeng Clean Energy and Sunshine Energy experiencing significant increases of 30.43% and 15.48%, respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Response - The surge in the photovoltaic sector is largely attributed to recent government initiatives aimed at curbing "involution" in competition, as highlighted by various government meetings and articles advocating for high-quality development [5][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to eliminate low-price competition and improve product quality within the photovoltaic industry [5]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic demand for photovoltaic installations surged in May 2025, with a record addition of 92.92 GW, marking a 388.03% year-on-year increase [6][8]. - However, the industry is expected to see a significant decline in installation numbers following the rush to secure policy benefits, indicating a potential return to more sustainable levels [6]. - Exports of photovoltaic components have been lackluster, with a 4% year-on-year decline in the first five months of 2025 compared to the previous year [8][10]. Group 4: Material Supply and Pricing - The price of silicon materials, which significantly impacts the photovoltaic industry, is under pressure due to high inventory levels and low demand, with current production capacity nearing its limits [15][17]. - The average price of domestic polysilicon has decreased to 35 yuan per kilogram, reflecting ongoing challenges in the supply chain [19]. - The industry faces difficulties in achieving "anti-involution" primarily at the silicon material level, while other segments like silicon wafers and modules may see easier adjustments through capacity restrictions [20].

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]