英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：同意货币政策委员会（MPC）关于劳动力市场正在放缓的观点，问题在 于（放缓的）速度。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that the labor market remains tight, suggesting ongoing demand for workers and potential upward pressure on wages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) acknowledges that while the labor market remains tight, broader capacity pressures have eased [1] Group 1 - The RBA indicates that the labor market is still considered tight, suggesting ongoing demand for labor and potential wage pressures [1] - There is a noted easing of broader capacity pressures, which may indicate a shift towards a more balanced economic environment [1]

美联储副主席杰斐逊：现在判断政府政策将如何影响劳动力市场还为时过早。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：劳动力市场基本处于平衡状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].

美联储戴利：经济稳健增长，劳动力市场稳健，通胀率下降，这正是我们希望达到的目标。目前的货币 政策能够应对经济中的各种变化，耐心是当下的关键词。 ...

步入2025年，美国经济正处于复杂多变的十字路口，一系列关键指标和潜在因素相互交织，描绘出一幅充满韧性却也面临诸多挑战的经济图景。深入剖析美 国经济现状，能为洞察全球经济走向提供关键视角。 增长态势：稳健中显露分化 近年来，美国经济增长展现出一定韧性。2024年第三季度，实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率达2.8%，虽较第二季度的3%有所下滑，但仍彰显出经济 的稳定扩张趋势。消费者支出作为经济增长的关键驱动力，在高利率和谨慎情绪影响下，增长步伐有所放缓。不过，科技与医疗保健等部分行业表现亮眼， 为经济增长注入活力。 从地域维度看，经济复苏呈现不均衡态势。城市中心凭借多元化产业结构和强大创新活力，迅速从疫情冲击中反弹；而部分农村地区及小城市，因投资不 足、就业机会创造缓慢，仍在艰难爬坡。这种地域发展差距，凸显出制定针对性政策，推动经济全面复苏的紧迫性。 通胀形势：降温但依旧高企 劳动力参与率仍低于疫情前水平，特别是老年劳动者与家庭照料者群体。美国商会数据显示，尽管当前就业人数多于疫情前，但劳动力占总人口比例下降。 目前美国有800万个职位空缺，而失业人数仅680万，若劳动力参与率恢复至2020年2月水平，将新 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：劳动力市场仍然坚挺。 ...

德勤首席经济学家Ian Stewart在给客户的一份研究报告中写道，英国就业市场放缓的迹象可能会促使今 年晚些时候进一步降息。Stewart表示，在失业率上升和职位空缺减少的情况下，持续强劲的薪资上涨 是一个亮点。"但由于雇主在招聘方面持谨慎态度，失业率可能会继续上升，而薪资增长将开始放 缓，"他说。"劳动力市场走弱可能会强化今年晚些时候进一步降息的理由。" ...