稀土之争，正成为中美科技博弈的焦点。近日，中国祭出稀土管控"新招"，直指核心技术人才，而大洋彼岸的特朗普政府则紧急调整对华政 策，释放出微妙信号。 6月25日，《华尔街日报》独家披露，中国要求国内稀土企业上报技术人员的详细信息，包括专业背景、教育经历及个人信息，旨在建立"稀土 人才名录"，防止关键技术外流。这一举措被外媒视为中国稀土管控的进一步升级——从资源、技术到人才，中国正构筑全方位防线。与此同 时，特朗普政府在对华关税战中突然"松口"，允许美国企业向中国出口乙烷，但附加"未经许可不得卸货"的苛刻条件。这一举动被解读为美国 在稀土问题上的一次战略妥协。 稀土（资料图） 中国的稀土管控早已不是新鲜事。从2023年12月将稀土提炼、加工技术列入禁止出口目录，到2024年对中重稀土实施出口许可管理，再到建立 稀土产品追踪系统，中国的政策步步收紧。如今，新规将管控范围扩大至"人"，直击西方国家的痛点——技术人才。外媒承认，中国在稀土磁 铁生产领域的技术优势难以撼动，而稀土加工设备的先进性更是全球领先。正因如此，西方国家长期觊觎中国技术，甚至不惜通过"高薪挖 角"窃取机密。 稀土（资料图） 特朗普政府的反应耐人寻味 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to tackle challenges in globalization amidst global industrial chain restructuring [1] - The theme of the summit was "For an Open World," aiming to facilitate resource connection and dialogue on rules among Chinese enterprises [1] Group 2 - Teng Binsheng, Vice Dean of the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, described the current globalization process for Chinese enterprises as a "breakthrough battle," emphasizing the necessity for companies to "go out" due to intense internal competition [3] - He compared the global landscape to the late Zhou Dynasty or the Spring and Autumn period, indicating that the international frameworks represented by the WTO and the UN have been significantly weakened [3] - Teng highlighted the challenges faced by Chinese companies, using the example of the US-China tariff war, where tariffs on Chinese products increased by 30% during a 90-day equal tariff window, complicating the situation for Chinese enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in global expansion amidst deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] - The summit aimed to facilitate thought exchange, resource connection, and regulatory dialogue among participants [1] Group 2 - Former Bank of China President Li Lihui discussed the international financial competition environment faced by Chinese enterprises, emphasizing the competition between China and the United States [3] - Li highlighted the structural contradictions in the U.S. economy, including a significant trade deficit exceeding $500 billion annually and a national debt of $36 trillion, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion [3] - He noted that the U.S. relies on its monetary hegemony to address its fiscal deficits, which could lead to efforts to maintain the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [3] Group 3 - Li pointed out that the recent U.S. stablecoin initiative aims to tie stablecoins to the dollar, expanding the U.S. Treasury market and increasing demand for U.S. debt [4] - This initiative is seen as a strategy to enhance U.S. financial dominance in a decentralized global financial market, intensifying direct competition in the monetary and financial sectors between China and the U.S. [4]

Core Viewpoint - China is accelerating the review of rare earth export license applications to stabilize global supply chains, establishing a green channel for eligible EU applications, which alleviates trade friction with Europe and strengthens the global rare earth supply chain [2][12] Group 1: Personnel Changes - The resignation of three key figures from China Rare Earth Group, including Chairman Yang Guoan, has raised concerns about the future direction of China's rare earth strategy amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The rapid appointment of new non-independent directors, including Guo Liangjin, Mei Yi, and Yang Weny, indicates a strategic response to the crisis, with all new appointees possessing significant industry experience [8][14] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements, comprising 17 metals, are critical for modern industries such as automotive, semiconductors, aerospace, and defense, with China controlling 69% of global rare earth production and 92.3% of separation capacity [10][12] - The strategic advantage of rare earths allows China to maintain a dominant position in geopolitical negotiations, as demonstrated by past actions to impose export controls in response to U.S. pressures [12][14] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - China's establishment of a green channel for rare earth exports to the EU reflects its commitment to global cooperation while managing its national interests, potentially reducing tensions in trade relations [2][12] - The recent personnel changes within China Rare Earth Group may be a necessary measure to navigate complex international circumstances and uphold national interests in the rare earth sector [14]

Group 1 - The EU expresses frustration and strategic anxiety regarding China's rare earth export controls, highlighting its vulnerability in the supply chain [2][3] - The EU's automotive and renewable energy sectors are facing significant production challenges due to shortages of rare earth materials, with major companies like Volkswagen and BMW forced to reduce output [2] - The EU's contradictory stance of imposing restrictions on Chinese companies while demanding China to ease rare earth export controls reflects a strategic inconsistency [2][4] Group 2 - China's rare earth policy is framed as aligning with international norms, emphasizing national security and the prevention of military proliferation [3] - The core objectives of China's rare earth policy include maintaining national security, establishing new global supply chain governance rules, and differentiating its approach to various markets [3][4] - The EU's "stinking fish" metaphor reveals its short-sightedness in acknowledging its dependence on Chinese rare earths while attempting to pressure China instead of seeking cooperation [4][8] Group 3 - The upcoming China-EU summit will focus on the rare earth issue, with potential for dialogue if the EU shifts from a victim mentality to respecting China's core interests [5][7] - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is actively engaging in diplomacy with the EU, signaling a desire for cooperation to resolve differences [6][7] - The future of China-EU relations hinges on the EU's ability to adopt a respectful and equal approach in negotiations, as continued double standards may exacerbate tensions over rare earths [8]

Core Insights - The Beijing Grade A office market is experiencing a high vacancy rate and stagnant rental levels, indicating a deep supply-demand game that requires controlling new supply and activating corporate demand [1][4] - The second quarter of this year saw a net absorption of 32,000 square meters in Beijing's Grade A office market, marking eight consecutive quarters of absorption, with a stable vacancy rate around 20% [1][4] - The Zhongguancun area has shown remarkable performance, achieving a cumulative absorption of nearly 160,000 square meters over four consecutive quarters, the fastest rate on record [1][6] Market Overview - Beijing's Grade A office market has a total area of 13.1 million square meters, with a vacancy rate of approximately 20% as of the end of the second quarter [2][4] - Rental prices in Beijing's Grade A office market have declined to levels seen in 2011, with specific areas like Zhongguancun experiencing significant drops in rental prices [2][4] Demand Dynamics - The demand for office space is highly concentrated in areas with rising industrial capabilities, such as Zhongguancun, Lize, and Financial Street, indicating a trend of market differentiation [5][6] - The technology sector is driving demand, with Zhongguancun's key enterprises reporting a total income of 3.2 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [6] Rental Trends - The average effective rent for Grade A offices in Beijing fell to 235.6 yuan per square meter per month, with a slight decrease of 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, the smallest decline in three quarters [4] - Despite the overall downward trend in rental prices, some high-end offices in Zhongguancun have achieved full occupancy after price reductions [6][7] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a dynamic balance phase, with a projected low point in new supply in 2025, which may create favorable conditions for a continued decline in vacancy rates [4][5] - The Lize Business District and Financial Street are also showing strong absorption trends, with Lize's vacancy rate dropping to 21.5% and Financial Street maintaining the lowest vacancy rate in the city at 11.7% [9]

先聊小米，再说银行股的事情，今天多聊点干货。 小米昨晚公布了Yu7的价格后，数据比较炸裂，3分钟大定20万台，而今天的数据来看， 锁单已经超过了24万台 ，这个数据，即使剔除黄牛的水分，也是 比较惊人的，看到下面这张图，没把我笑喷过去。 如果你对24万台没概念的话，今晚理想正好公告，此前二季度的预期交付量是12万台出头，但实际预计二季度只能交付11万左右，也就是说，一个季度卖 出的量，确实可能只有雷总一天的一半。 我今天和几个汽配行业的朋友聊，大家都提到， 昨晚，很多整车厂应该睡不太着了 ，因为社会的总需求边际上不会增加特别多，Yu7卖的好，抢的都是 其他SUV的份额，因此，今天港股除了小米之外的整车厂，开盘都尿了一裤子，比亚迪开盘跌7个点，小鹏跌5.5%，理想、蔚来、吉利，都是跌3-3.5%左 右。 不过， 小米今天自己的股价表现，低于预期 ，昨晚小米在美股的ADR涨了接近10个点，但今天，在港股高开8个点后，收盘"只"涨了3.6%。 背后的逻辑，我感觉还是资金的博弈太厉害了，之前在小米身上已经赚了大钱的人，有利好就跑路——之前讲过，从5月初开始一直到现在，港股市场 里，腾讯、阿里、小米三巨头，就是最大的提 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current dynamics in the gold market, highlighting a potential conflict between bullish and bearish sentiments among investors [1] Group 1 - Bearish investors are reportedly taking early positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The article suggests that a significant confrontation between bulls and bears is expected to occur soon, emphasizing the volatility in the gold market [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a researcher named Steven, providing real-time insights into the ongoing market developments [1]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 27 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内日上涨近 5%。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报 价 930 元/吨，较上个交易日-10 元/吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 724/吨，较上个 交易日+5 元/吨。基本面来看，俄罗斯乌海、山西等地受环保安全检查的影响， 供应端减量，数据来看，近期上游洗煤厂及矿山精煤产量下降，安全月后减产消 息频发，焦煤减产减轻了焦煤供需宽松的压力。需求端相对供应压力的缓解来说 表现较弱，焦炭四轮提降后，焦企利润降低开工率下移，本期铁水产量增加，钢 厂自用的情况下，焦炭的生产暂未收到太大的影响。终端在高温下开工率维持低 位，房地产仍然等待政策的托举。整体来看，前期价格长期阴跌后，市场情绪被 蒙煤事宜点燃，空头力量减弱，近期安全月多发检修，支撑盘面上行逻辑，但终 端需求不足依然是拖累，基本面宽松，后续关注逢高空机会。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗 ...

03 数据分析 04 后市研判 焦煤焦炭周度报告 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-06-27 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 报告摘要 PART 01 1. 据百年建筑调研，截至6月24日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.11%，周环比上升0.06个百分点。其中，非房建项目资 金到位率为61.02%，周环比上升0.05个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为49.59%，周环比上升0.08个百分点。据百年建筑 调研，截至6月24日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.11%，周环比上升0.06个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为 61.02%，周环比上升0.05个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为49.59%，周环比上升0.08个百分点。 本周双焦盘面突破前期震荡区间，于周三开始逐步走强，带动整个黑色系偏强运行。近期外部地缘冲突降温，避险情绪回落； 央行等六部门发文金融支撑消费等政策提振股市，国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换 新资金，改善国内宏观情绪。临近7月，政治局会议存预期博弈。本周现货市场交投情绪回升，焦煤供减需增去库格局下， 价格短 ...