2025.06. 30 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 本文字数：2180，阅读时长大约4分钟 近期部分省份相继披露2025年前5月财政收支情况，由此可以一窥地方财政运行情况。 第一财经根据各省份财政部门披露数据梳理发现，截至6月底已有江苏、北京等17个省份公开了当地 2025年一般公共预算收支情况。 17个省份中前5个月一般公共预算收入保持增长的有15个省份，其中增速最高的是吉林省。 根据吉林省财政厅数据，今年前5个月吉林一般公共预算收入562.2亿元，增长15%。这一增速远高 于全国一般公共预算收入增速（-0.3%）和地方一般公共预算本级收入平均增速（1.9%）。 在去年财政收入保持两位数增长（10%）背景下，今年吉林财政收入为何仍能保持两位数高增速？ 关键原因是吉林加大了盘活存量资产资源带动了收入增长。 根据吉林省财政厅数据，今年前5个月吉林一般公共预算收入中，非税收入（243亿元）同比增长 30.6%，这主要是各市县为提升自主财力，加快资源资产盘活进程，使得非税收入中的国有资源 （资产）有偿使用收入（166.1亿元）同比增长104.6%。另外，吉林前5个月全省税收收入 （319.1亿元）同比增长5.4%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, despite experiencing significant losses in 2024, remains confident in its ability to navigate the challenging real estate market and is focused on sustainable development and strategic adjustments [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of approximately 753.44 billion yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 61.15 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of about 788.54% [1]. - The company's contracted sales amounted to 685.1 billion yuan, down 55.39% year-on-year, with a contracted area of 4.714 million square meters, a decrease of 46.25% [1]. - By the end of 2024, the company had a total interest-bearing debt of 735 billion yuan, with only about 5.6 billion yuan of public debt remaining to be repaid, indicating that the peak of debt repayment has passed [2]. Market Conditions - The overall market remains in a downturn, with the national market heat reaching a low of 15% in September 2023, recovering to around 50% in October but still below previous highs [3]. - The company has seen a significant drop in sales, with a monthly average sales scale decreasing from approximately 60 billion yuan in 2023 to about 30 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to continue a cautious approach to investment, focusing on core business areas and optimizing resource allocation while ensuring financial safety [4][5]. - The management emphasizes the importance of adapting to market changes and policy directions to find new opportunities for survival and growth during the ongoing structural adjustments in the industry [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company believes that the real estate market in China will continue to exist long-term, with projected annual sales remaining between 4 trillion to 5 trillion yuan in the next 10 to 15 years [5]. - The management is confident that despite the challenges, there will be opportunities for resilient companies to thrive in the evolving market landscape [6].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, characterized by a decline in overall transaction volume and a shift towards a "stock era" where existing properties are prioritized over new developments [1][3] - Regulatory bodies are implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the market, focusing on "strict control of new supply and revitalizing existing stock" to address structural changes in the market [1][4] - The recovery timeline for different cities varies, with first-tier cities expected to recover within five years, while third and fourth-tier cities may take up to ten years [4][5] Market Dynamics - The era of rapid real estate development is over, with a predicted decrease in annual development volume [3] - First-tier cities and rapidly developing cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu can still support new housing due to favorable population inflow, while many third and fourth-tier cities have excess inventory and do not require new construction [3][4] - The demand for housing is driven by ongoing urbanization and population movement, which will sustain housing needs in various regions [8] Policy Recommendations - Existing unsold properties should be converted into self-occupied housing rather than constructing new units, to avoid resource wastage [5] - Land approval processes should adhere to the principle of "housing for living, not speculation," ensuring that new land is allocated based on actual housing needs [5] Company Strategy - The company has adjusted its operations in response to market cycles, maintaining a conservative expansion strategy and preserving cash flow [6][7] - The company has reduced its scale in line with the market contraction, indicating a proactive approach to align with market conditions [7] Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is performing better than the new housing market, with significant transaction volumes in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [8] - The company is developing a "Central City Index" to provide a scientific basis for price trends in the real estate market, addressing the lack of standardized pricing mechanisms [10] Technological Advancements - The company is embracing AI technology to enhance its services, including developing valuation systems for banks and predictive pricing models for clients [11][12] - The anticipated completion of a large-scale data model for the real estate sector is expected within one to six months, aimed at improving transaction efficiency [12]

信达证券 2025 年 7 月"十大金股"组合 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 30 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor 策略首席分析师 ] 职业编号：S1500521060001 邮箱：fanjituo@cindasc.com 刘旺 传媒互联网联席首席分析师 职业编号：S1500522110006 邮箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 程丽丽 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 李春驰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Wuhan Municipal Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau has announced an extension of certain real estate policy deadlines to promote stable and healthy development in the local real estate market [1] Group 1: Policy Extension - The deadline for the policy regarding the optimization of new residential property project approval services has been extended to December 31, 2025 [1] - From October 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, purchasing new residential properties in Wuhan will qualify as a first home for families, allowing for a full rebate on the paid deed tax [1] - For families purchasing a second home, a 50% rebate on the paid deed tax will be provided [1]

根据吉林省财政厅数据，今年前5个月吉林一般公共预算收入562.2亿元，增长15%。这一增速远高于全 国一般公共预算收入增速（-0.3%）和地方一般公共预算本级收入平均增速（1.9%）。 第一财经根据各省份财政部门披露数据梳理发现，截至6月底已有江苏、北京等17个省份公开了当地 2025年一般公共预算收支情况。 17个省份中前5个月一般公共预算收入保持增长的有15个省份，其中增速最高的是吉林省。 今年以来地方财政收入普遍低速增长，而支出保持扩张，财政收支矛盾依然较大。 近期部分省份相继披露2025年前5月财政收支情况，由此可以一窥地方财政运行情况。 | 省份 | 前5月一般公共预算收入(亿元) | | 增速(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 江苏 | | 4855 | 1.8 | | 上海 | | 4103. 5 | 0. 3 | | 北京 | | 2969. 1 | 2. 6 | | 四川 | | 2595. 3 | 4.1 | | 河北 | | 1966. 8 | 0. 4 | | 湖南 | | 1469. 3 | 1.7 | | 陕西 | | 1394. 4 | -3.7 ...

Group 1 - New World Development Company Limited has reached a new bank financing and unified bank financing agreement covering approximately HKD 88.2 billion of existing unsecured financial debt [1] - The company's financial management strategy focuses on reducing liabilities and improving cash flow, while continuing to fulfill existing financial responsibilities [1] - The recovery of the real estate market in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with the growth in demand for high-end residential properties, has led to the successful launch of several "phenomenal" hot-selling projects [1] Group 2 - As of June 25, the company has achieved its contract sales target of HKD 26 billion for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [1] - In the mainland market, projects in Guangzhou and Shenyang have led sales, with Shenyang's project topping the residential sales chart in May [1] - In Hong Kong, the super luxury project "滶晨" has sold over 330 units at a maximum price of over HKD 538,000 per square meter, attracting both local and overseas buyers [2]

后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 逢高空思维。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1181 | 环比 数据指标 -15 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1006 | 环比 -13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 175 | -2 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1588831 | 79343 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1470350 | 30678 纯 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 报告正文 事件：6月27日，央行发布中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会全文。 经济形势分析：社会信心持续提振，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行等挑战。 央行对上半年经济表现给予高度评价，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振"。 较一季度例 会"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"的表述更显积极，尤其突出社会信心的修复。后续央行或根据经济 形势与预期变化动态调整政策节奏。 风险挑战方面，会议在延续"国内需求不足"判断的同时，新增"物价持续低位运行"的表述。 事实上，一季 度货币政策执行报告已提升对物价的关注度，专栏六分析实体经济供求关系及物价变动，明确提出"价格 调控思路上，也要从以前的管高价转向管低价，从支持规模扩张转向高质量发展，从防垄断转向防无序竞 争。" 货币政策思路：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。 关于后续政策操作，会议提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，与货币政策执行报告表述一致，预示政 策将更注重执行中的动态响应。 会议将一季度"择机降准降息"，修调整为上述表述，或因当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has been increasingly sluggish over the past two years, with high property prices in major cities leading to a lack of buyers and a significant number of unsold properties [1][4][35]. Group 1: Market Challenges - The real estate market faces three major challenges: the issue of vacant properties, the surge in foreclosed properties, and the problem of unfinished buildings [2][6][16]. - The number of vacant properties in China is approximately 130 million, which could theoretically accommodate 300 to 400 million people, highlighting a significant waste of resources due to speculative buying [8][10]. - The increase in foreclosed properties has been dramatic, with over 1.6 million in 2021, rising to over 3 million in 2022, and projected to exceed 3.5 million in 2023, driven by economic uncertainty and rising defaults [17][19][21]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The rise in vacant and foreclosed properties is causing a strain on banks, leading to increased operational costs and potential liquidity issues, which could further destabilize the financial system [23][41]. - The unfinished buildings, or "zombie projects," are a result of developers mismanaging funds and facing tightening financing conditions, which negatively impacts urban development and the overall economy [27][29][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current real estate environment is characterized by a shift back to the fundamental value of housing, with location becoming a critical factor, while the overall market remains oversupplied [33][41]. - The government is attempting to stimulate the market by expanding the buyer pool and reducing restrictions, but significant disparities between property prices and income levels persist, complicating recovery efforts [35][43].