固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-07-01 市场流动性概况 2025-06-30，股指板块成交4199.37亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.35%；持仓金额10013.52亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.39%；成交持仓比为41.75%。 国债板块成交3620.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.43%；持仓金额8746.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.87%；成交持 仓比为42.58%。 基本金属板块成交2781.58亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.34%；持仓金额4095.16亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.64%；成 交持仓比为117.52%。 贵金属板块成交4289.67亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.04%；持仓金额4271.53亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.43%；成交 持仓比为106.03%。 能源化工板块成交4652.56亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.62%；持仓金额3875.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%；成 交持仓比为92.77%。 农产品板块成交3007.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.13%；持仓金额5501.23亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.02%；成 交持仓比为48.32%。 黑色建材板块成交2381. ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market has experienced a decline since late June, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, rising risk appetite, and increased bond supply. However, as the fundamentals remain weak and liquidity is expected to be loose, the bond market may gradually strengthen in July [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond futures market has seen a pullback due to a tightening of the funding environment, with interbank market rates rising significantly, particularly DR007 which increased from around 1.5% to over 2%, marking a new high in over a month [1]. - The A-share market's continuous rise has created a "see-saw effect" with the bond market, as major indices reached yearly highs, leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, particularly affecting long-term government bond futures [1]. - The issuance of bonds surged in June, with local government special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds contributing to supply shocks in the bond market. The net financing of local government special bonds reached 529.2 billion yuan in the last week of June, a record high for the year [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that as the basic economic pressures increase and liquidity remains loose, the bond market is likely to strengthen in July. The anticipated decline in domestic demand and the weakening momentum of enterprises in the third quarter will further transmit pressure to the economy [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting indicated a shift towards a more flexible approach to policy implementation, suggesting that the expectation of loose liquidity will gradually rise, which is favorable for the bond market [2]. - Key areas to monitor in July include changes in monetary policy and market liquidity, the impact of fiscal policy and bond supply, and economic data and expectations [3].

Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock market has abundant liquidity, with a focus on the upward elasticity of the non-bank sector [1] - Since June, the Hong Kong stock market has shown recovery, with the Hang Seng Index up by 4.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 3.31%, outperforming the MSCI World Index which increased by 3.77% [1] - As of June 27, the overall market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 42.84 trillion, an increase of 6.31% compared to the end of May [1] Group 2 - Trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market has increased, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of HKD 229.44 billion, up by 9.12% month-on-month [1] - Southbound capital's ADT increased by 27.16%, accounting for 26.18% of the total turnover [1] - The trading volume of derivatives has also risen, with futures average daily volume (ADV) at 58,000 contracts, up by 6.30%, and options ADV at 82,000 contracts, up by 11.53% [1] Group 3 - The HIBOR rate has risen again since June, with the 6-month HIBOR reaching 2.38% as of June 27, an increase of 0.22 percentage points month-on-month, and a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-to-date [1] - With HIBOR remaining high, the investment income of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to continue to rise [1] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap stocks with good liquidity under the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index is calculated using a free-float market capitalization weighting method and sets a 10% weight limit for individual constituent stocks, reflecting the overall market performance of large-cap stocks in Hong Kong [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]

Global Economic Research 26 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Katherine Marney (1-212) 834-2285 katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC EM capital flows monitor Dollar, where's my mojo? It's been a rollercoaster ride for the global economy and markets since President Trump took office. We are collectively trying to pick up the pieces and put together an uncertain picture of future US trade and fiscal policies, Fed moves and rising geopolitical risks. Our global team's probability of a US recessio ...

流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 大宗商品周度报告 2025年6月30日 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收跌2.00%，其中能化跌幅较大，下跌 4.23%，农产品和贵金属分别下跌1.31%和0.36%，黑色和有色金属分别上涨 1.29%和2.71%。 有色金属方面，整体延续上涨势头。市场风险偏好回升叠加美联储政策基调 微调，提振金属板块情绪。铜价持续受益于海外库存偏低和国内电力、光伏等终 端消费回暖的共振支撑，同时短期扰动如南美矿山检修也推升了对供给收紧的预 期。铝价则受益于成本端氧化铝价格上行和高温用电紧张背景下的限电预期，产 业逻辑强化。 黑色方面，价格重拾升势。钢材期货在淡季背景下仍表现坚挺，主要受铁矿 石强势提振和对后期政策托底的预期推动。近期港口铁矿库存持续下降，澳洲发 运阶段性减少，加剧市场对原料端供需偏紧的判断；焦炭价格经历前期深度回调 后迎来企稳迹象，部分地区开启新一轮提涨，钢厂补库意愿回暖。此外，钢材社 会库存去化节奏好于预期，尽管终端需求疲弱，但投机性采购活跃带动盘面反弹， 市场对三季度潜在政策驱动有所博弈。 能源方面，整体表现偏弱。国际油价高位震荡后逐步回调，主因在于宏观避 险情 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经香港6月30日电（记者李柏涛）27日，16家内地企业递表申请在港股主板上市，其中13家是第一次递表；30日，云知声、IFBH、泰德医药三家公 司在港交所挂牌上市，这是6月份第四次出现"三重奏"…… 实际上，2025年上半年，港股IPO市场强势复苏，新股发行节奏加快、募资规模回升，成为全球资本市场关注的焦点。 新股认购数据显示，5月在港上市的宁德时代，吸引来自欧洲、中东和美国等地的投资者参与，其IPO集资规模也刷新了港股近年纪录。 政策制度红利释放 港交所数据显示，今年上半年已完成42宗传统IPO项目，累计集资超过1050亿港元，规模也分别超过了2022年、2023年、2024年的全年融资规模。 业内人士认为，这一亮眼成绩的背后，是国际资金转向、政策制度红利释放、估值修复与流动性改善等多重动能的叠加共振，为港股市场注入了新的活力 与韧性。 国际资金投资转向 今年上半年，全球经济在复杂环境中缓慢修复，地缘冲突与科技浪潮并行，国际资金流动逻辑正从"避险主导"向"收益与风险再平衡"切换。 港股IPO市场走热并非偶然。德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴指出，香港作为国际金融中心，是全球资本配置中国资 ...

风险提示：数据统计口径存在偏差；数据测算误差；从第三方机构 获知数据的偏差风险。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告导读： 本期市场交易热度大幅抬升，融资资金大幅流入， ETF 与外资资金转为流 出，偏股基金新发规模边际下降。南下资金流入持续抬升。 市场定价状态：市场整体交易热度 快速抬升，赚钱效应明显。 1 ）市场情绪（上升）：本期国泰海通资 金流入强度指数整体持续上升， 市场交易热度底部抬升， 全 A 日均成交额从 1.2 万亿上升至 1.5 万 亿，上证指数换手率分位数上升至 85% ，科创板换手率分位数上升至 40% 。 日均涨停家数上升至 71 家 ，最大连板数为 6 个，封板率上升至 77.2% ，龙虎榜上榜家数降至 61 家。 2 ）赚钱效应（上 升）：本期个股上涨比例上升至 88.6% ，全 A 个股周度收益中位数上升至 4.4% ； 3 ）交易集中度 （上升）：国泰海通行业轮动指数小幅提升，行业交易集中度回升，本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90% 以上的行业有 7 个，环比增加 5 个，其中换手率分位数超 95% 的行业为综合金融、国防军工、综 合和石油石化。 ...