Group 1 - Global trade and economic growth are expected to decline due to multiple uncertainties, with HSBC forecasting a slowdown in global goods and services trade growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, alongside economic growth rates of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively [1] - The "import rush" effect in the US has led to a contraction in economic growth, and weakening data on employment and real wage growth may pressure private consumption spending [2] - Asian economies are facing export and manufacturing investment pressures, with potential for significant slowdown in export growth if US tariffs are reinstated, while expansionary macro policies may provide some buffer [3] Group 2 - US core inflation is expected to remain sticky, influenced by delayed tariff effects and reduced immigration, with forecasts indicating inflation will stay above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, which could lead to a series of economic repercussions [3] - The reliance on private consumption recovery is becoming increasingly important for economic growth in Asia as both exports and investments face challenges [3]

美联储穆萨莱姆：美国财政赤字正走在不可持续的道路上。未来可能成为金融稳定问题。 ...

► 文 观察者网 王一 美国总统特朗普几乎每次在白宫接待外国领导人时都会出点"小事故"。当地时间7月9日，特朗普与五位 非洲国家领导人在白宫举行会晤，讨论"商业机会"。但这个本应彰显友好与合作的场合，却因特朗普当 众催进度，显得有些尴尬。 白宫官员也对CNN表示，"安排与非洲国家领导人进行会谈和午餐对话，是因为特朗普总统认为非洲国 家提供了令人难以置信的商业机会，这将惠及美国人民和我们的非洲伙伴"。 尽管此次来参会的五个国家在美非贸易中的占比都不大，但美联社报道称，这些国家蕴藏着大量尚未开 发的矿产资源，才是美国真正渴望的东西。 社交媒体上流传出的视频显示，毛里塔尼亚总统加兹瓦尼当时正在白宫午餐会上发言，他先做了自我介 绍，接着感谢特朗普的接待并赞扬了他所谓的和平努力。当加兹瓦尼开始描述他们国家的战略位置和投 资机会时，特朗普开始变得不耐烦了。 特朗普做了一个催进度的手势，然后摇了摇头，盯着加兹瓦尼说，"我不想在这件事上花太多时 间"，"也许我们得快一点，因为后面还有满满的行程安排"，"如果各位能只告诉我你的名字和国家，那 就太好了"。 视频截图 特朗普的这一做法在社交媒体上遭到了网友的批评。一名美国网友难过 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Navy's Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarine, Newport News, has arrived in Iceland amid growing concerns over Russia's military presence in the Arctic region [1][3] - The U.S. and Iceland share a common goal of maintaining low tension in the Arctic while being aware of Russia's military efforts in the area [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 Arctic Strategy emphasizes the strategic importance of the Arctic to the U.S. and plans to enhance military capabilities and surveillance activities in the region [3][4] Group 2 - The 2024 Arctic Strategy highlights the need for cooperation with allies like Canada to establish new mechanisms and rules in the Arctic, aiming to assert dominance and Arctic hegemony [3][4] - Russia's President Putin has stated that Russia does not threaten any country in the Arctic but is closely monitoring the situation to protect its sovereignty [4] - China has refuted claims of increasing cooperation with Russia in the Arctic, asserting its commitment to peaceful and sustainable development in the region [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) CEO stated that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, with core customer segments in good condition and a continued prioritization of travel [1] Company Summary - Delta Air Lines' CEO emphasized the resilience of the U.S. economy, indicating that it supports ongoing travel demand [1] - The company is focusing on its core customer base, which is performing well and is expected to maintain travel preferences [1]

一、一个美国中产家庭的失败 安，一个典型的九十年代美国中产女性。她大学毕业后做了会计，在那个年代算是领了一张通往稳定生活的入场券。她知道自己要什么：一个车库、一条 熨得笔直的职业路线，以及那个"带白栅栏的美国梦"。 她也很快和大学时期的男友詹姆斯结了婚，一切都很美式：一辆车、一栋不算新的房子、一个小院子和三个卧室。够用但不奢侈，也能给孩子提供一个小 型足球场。 他们顺利加入了中产阶级俱乐部。 转折不期而至。孩子五岁时，詹姆斯的公司倒闭，他勉强找到了一份新工作，但工资缩水得就像一件劣质床单。 他们没有多少存款，为了脱困只能加班，甩卖二手家具，临时接私活。但几个月后，他们的现金流还是完全枯竭。房贷、车贷、孩子的教育费用都无法支 付，银行开始打来催债的电话。 尽管一直很小心不让他们的孩子知道，但他最后还是在家中无意接起催债电话，他当着安的面愤怒大喊："别再打来了！" 这是压垮安心理防线的最后一根稻草，她决定申请破产。这既是她作为母亲对孩子的保护，也是作为会计师的无奈抉择。詹姆斯则默默地走向了他们的小 皮卡，独自痛哭。 二、中产家庭，被孩子拖垮 这个案例，出自伊丽莎白·沃伦和她的女儿阿米莉亚·塔亚吉在2004年出版的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad described U.S. tariffs as an "aggressive act" representing the policies of former President Bolsonaro [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariffs are perceived as a continuation of aggressive trade policies that were in place during Bolsonaro's administration [1] - Haddad's comments reflect ongoing tensions between Brazil and the U.S. regarding trade practices [1] - The Brazilian government is likely to seek ways to address and mitigate the impact of these tariffs on its economy [1]

巴西财政部长Haddad：特朗普的关税决定纯粹是政治性的。 美国关税威胁并非基于任何经济理由。 美国关税在经济和政治上不可持续。 ...

2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆将于十分钟后就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。 ...

Core Insights - The discussion between Howard Marks and Chen Guangming focuses on the current global economic situation, investment strategies, and market opportunities [1][3][4] - Marks expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, stating it remains in a "sustained good state" despite trade policy uncertainties introduced by Trump [1][2][8] - Both Marks and Chen emphasize the importance of intrinsic value in investment decisions, advocating for a long-term, patient approach to investing [1][2][12] Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks believes the U.S. economy is vibrant and continues to perform well, despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade policies [2][8][10] - Chen agrees that the U.S. remains a highly rewarding investment destination for the coming decades, dismissing notions of the end of "American exceptionalism" [2][10] - The recent downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds is viewed as having minimal practical implications, with the default probability only slightly increasing from 0.5% to 1% [2][17] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Marks emphasizes that investment decisions should start with the assessment of the investment target rather than macroeconomic predictions [12][28] - Both Marks and Chen advocate for maintaining composure during market volatility and focusing on long-term value creation [12][39] - Chen highlights the need for investors to resist emotional impulses, especially in a volatile market environment [27][39] Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - Chen points out that many Chinese companies may be undervalued, citing the example of DeepSeek as a sign of China's potential in technology and innovation [1][21][24] - Marks acknowledges that the U.S. does not monopolize technological advancements, recognizing China's competitive capabilities in sectors like AI [21][22] - Chen expresses optimism about China's long-term economic strength and the potential for significant returns from investments in Chinese companies [24][28] Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Marks and Chen agree that market volatility can create opportunities for value investors, particularly during downturns [12][20][31] - Chen notes that during periods of uncertainty, it is crucial to focus on companies that continue to generate cash flow and maintain intrinsic value [14][27] - Marks stresses the importance of understanding that market fluctuations often exaggerate the perceived changes in company fundamentals [34][39]