汇率降息预期下，美元还有多少下行空间 20250710 摘要 各国央行减少美元储备，增加黄金购买，反映去美元化趋势，但并非今 年三四月份股市下跌的唯一原因，私营部门的货币对冲需求和美国经济 预期减弱也放大了贬值幅度。 美联储降息预期升温，但通胀风险和经济数据的不确定性导致降息时间 和次数存在分歧，历史数据显示降息周期中美元强弱转换明显，下半年 美元指数或面临下行压力。 上半年人民币对非美货币贬值，受国内经济放缓、资本流动限制和国际 贸易环境影响，形成"美元人民币双弱"格局，下半年人民币汇率走势 取决于这些因素的变化。 短期内去美元化进程加速仍需观察欧美跨境资金流动和资产回报差异， 美国风险资产回报较好且安全性高，短期内难以找到合适替代资产，过 程注定缓慢。 特朗普对 22 国新增关税，市场风险情绪未受显著影响，市场逐渐习惯 于将关税风险定价，并进行跨资产交易，关税谈判延后也未引发市场剧 烈反应。 Q&A 今年上半年美元指数的表现如何？去美元化交易对美元产生了什么影响？ 今年上半年，美元指数跌幅达 12%，主要原因是特朗普政策的不确定性带来了 去美元化的交易。自 2022 年俄乌战争冲突后，美国对俄罗斯的经济制 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy is set to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and Brazilian goods starting August 1, escalating trade tensions with Brazil. Brazilian President Lula seeks diplomatic solutions but warns of reciprocal measures if tariffs are enacted. This policy may increase commodity prices, intensifying inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold as an inflation hedge. However, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could offset this benefit [3]. - Recent U.S. labor data shows initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking a seven-week low. Conversely, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4]. - Strong employment data has bolstered the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices. Potential signs of labor market weakness may provide support for gold's safe-haven demand in the future [5]. - The June Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that while some officials suggest a possible rate cut this month, most remain cautious about inflation pressures from tariffs, preferring to maintain the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.50%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not fully materialize until late 2025 or early 2026, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September and a total of 53 basis points by year-end. Fed Governor Waller's comments have injected some optimism, suggesting that the upcoming policy meeting may open the door for rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, but the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may continue to limit gold's upside potential [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been in a converging triangle pattern since encountering resistance at the 3500 level on April 22. Following a recent decline, gold showed signs of recovery, closing with a small gain on Thursday. The current moving averages are intertwined, indicating a short-term sideways market. Key resistance levels to watch are between 3340-3346, which coincide with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages and previous resistance points. A breakout above this range could extend the bullish trend towards the previous highs of 3365-3366 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 3374. Support is focused around 3284, formed by connecting the lows from May 15 and June 30 [7]. - On the four-hour chart, the price has recently approached a trendline resistance formed by the previous high since the decline from 3452. The price touched the 3330 resistance level, and there are indications of a potential upward breakout. If this occurs, the strategy should focus on maintaining support at the recent low of 3310, looking for buying opportunities during price pullbacks. Key upward targets include the 3345/3346 and 3365/3366 regions, while support levels to monitor are the recent low of 3310 and the lower low of 3282 [9].

日度报告——综合晨报 国办发文加大稳就业政策支持力度 宏观策略（股指期货） 国办发文加大稳就业政策支持力度 综 合 7 月 10 日受消息面影响，房地产板块大幅上涨。当前地产行业 确实存在维稳的必要，但政策内容目前仍难以确定。依照前期 表现看，房地产止跌回稳需要在供需两侧协同发力。 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-11 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国迟迟不签贸易协定，欧盟陷入僵局 美联储理事给出了美联储资产负债表的预计规模，我们认为这 是在给缩表预期做管理，但是这个预计的规模可能还是较低， 美元短期震荡。 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 900 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 基本面与风险偏好的再平衡是近期股市走强、债市略走弱的核 心原因，但当前的交易可持续性并不强。短期市场调整反而会 带来入场的机会，建议关注逢低布局中线多单的机会。 农产品（豆粕） CONAB 维持巴西大豆产量预估不变 ANEC 预计巴西 7 月大豆出口将继续下滑，巴西 CNF 升贴水保 持坚挺。USDA 周度出口销售报告符合预期，关注今晚 USDA 7 月供需报告。 有色金属（铜） 知情人士：特朗普 50% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-11 初申失业金人数下降，金价上行受阻 ⾦价连续第⼆天上涨，⽬前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不⾜。 美元⾛软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注，为⾦价提 供⽀撑。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周三向七个小型贸易伙伴发出了最终关税通知， 与此同时，美国政府与其最大贸易伙伴欧盟距离达成协议更近一步。 2）布鲁塞尔正在与美国方面讨论一系列措施，旨在保护欧盟汽车产 业免受美国高额进口关税的影响。这些措施包括削减关税、设定进口 配额，以及对欧盟汽车制造商对美出口提供抵免。 3）俄罗斯国防部称："俄罗斯联邦武装部队使用高精度远程武器和 无人机对基辅的军工企业和军用机场基础设施实施了集群打击。" 4）美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数 22.7万人，预期23.5万人， 前值由23.3万人修正为23.2万人。 价格逻辑： 金价连续第二天上涨，目前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不 足。美元走软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注， 为金价提供支撑。同时，全球贸易紧张局势也推动投资者涌入黄金这 一避 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reaching new historical highs [1][2] - As of the close on July 10, the Dow Jones increased by 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,280.46 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.09% to 20,630.66 points [2] Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock price increased by 0.75%, marking its market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [2] - Tesla's stock rose by 4.73% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of plans to expand its Robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area [2] - Other major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple up 0.6%, Google up 0.59%, while Microsoft, Meta, and Netflix saw declines [2] Analyst Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600 points, indicating a positive outlook for the US stock market [3] - JPMorgan reported that potential capital inflows into the US stock market could reach $500 billion in the second half of the year, potentially driving a 5% to 10% increase in the S&P 500 by year-end [3] Federal Reserve Commentary - President Trump urged Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to take swift action to lower interest rates, criticizing the current rate policy as being too high [3][4] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a cut later in the year while others call for more data before making a decision [4] Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking the lowest level in two months [4] - The number of continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since the end of 2021, indicating challenges for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4] - Overall, the labor market data suggests stronger-than-expected conditions, which may reduce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5]

美联储古尔斯比称，美联储大楼并非豪华建筑；这些建筑需要翻新，也需要高度的安全性。 ...

当地时间7月10日，美股三大指数集体上涨，纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数再创历史新高。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔迅速采取行动降息。而美联储内部对降息的日期也产生了一定分歧。 纳指、标普续创新高 截至当地时间周四收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.43%，报44650.64点；标普500指数涨0.27%，报6280.46点，创下新高；纳指涨0.09%，报20630.66点，连续两天刷新最 高纪录。 英伟达股价上涨0.75%，收盘市值首次突破4万亿美元，成为全球首家市值达到这一里程碑的上市公司，仅这一家公司的市值就超过了英国股票总市值。和今年4月 低点相比，英伟达股价已经上涨约90%。美国投行韦德布什分析师DanIves表示，预计英伟达的市值可能会在未来18个月内达到5万亿美元。 特斯拉股价上涨4.73%，消息面上，特斯拉CEO马斯克在其社交平台上宣布，公司计划将无人驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）服务扩展至美国加州旧金山湾区，并预期最 快可在"一两个月内"正式推出，具体时间取决于监管部门的批准进度。马斯克还表示，公司计划本周末扩大无人驾驶出租车在奥斯汀的服务范围。 其他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's mission is focused on employment and price stability, not on reducing government debt costs through interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve expressed confusion over the argument that the Fed should lower interest rates to reduce government debt costs [1] - The Federal Reserve's mandate is primarily concerned with employment and inflation control [1]

美联储古尔斯比：美联储大楼并非豪华建筑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing resilience despite ongoing tariff threats from Trump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion. Bitcoin also hit an all-time high [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that the market has become complacent regarding Trump's tariff threats, suggesting that investors believe he will back down as he has in the past [3]. - Dimon emphasizes the importance of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which could stabilize tariffs and provide a framework for future negotiations [3]. - The market is currently preparing for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate profits [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dimon indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is higher than market expectations, suggesting a 40% to 50% chance compared to the market's 20% [5]. - He attributes this higher probability to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and budget deficits, alongside global trade restructuring [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is critical, as market participants are divided on the likelihood of rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings Expectations - Analysts are skeptical about the earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies, with expectations for only a 2% growth in profits, the weakest in two years, primarily due to tariff uncertainties [8]. - Despite the low expectations, some analysts believe that growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, will still deliver strong results [8]. - There is a belief that the market's pessimism regarding the earnings season may be overstated, with potential positive surprises from improving corporate guidance and a weaker dollar [8].