Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite higher-than-expected inflation data in the UK, the possibility of a Bank of England rate cut in August should not be ruled out [1] - UK inflation rate increased from 2.6% in March to 3.5% in April, surpassing the economists' forecast of 3.4% [1] - The rise in service sector inflation is largely attributed to one-off factors, indicating potential improvement in underlying inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The UK money market has not fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in November, suggesting uncertainty in future monetary policy [1] - LSEG data indicates a low probability of a rate cut in June, with only a 43% chance for a cut in August [1]

英国2年期国债收益率触及4月3日以来最高水平。 ...

金十数据5月21日讯，财经网站Forexlive分析师：英国CPI公布后，目前的市场定价显示，2025年剩余时 间的降息幅度为34个基点，而英国CPI公布前的预期为41个基点。市场完全定价11月会进行降息，在我 看来，这仍然有点高，我预计英国央行和其他主要央行在未来几周和几个月内将面临更强硬的重新定 价。 交易员削减英国央行降息押注，倾向于年内仅再降息一次 ...

德国DAX30指数5月21日（周三）开盘下跌79.74点，跌幅0.33%，报23937.56点； 英国富时100指数5月21日（周三）开盘下跌14.61点，跌幅0.17%，报8766.51点； 法国CAC40指数5月21日（周三）开盘下跌2.97点，跌幅0.04%，报7939.45点； 欧洲斯托克50指数5月21日（周三）开盘下跌15.60点，跌幅0.29%，报5439.05点； 西班牙IBEX35指数5月21日（周三）开盘上涨35.33点，涨幅0.25%，报14297.63点； 意大利富时MIB指数5月21日（周三）开盘下跌32.44点，跌幅0.08%，报40490.00点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK interest rate futures indicate an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England of approximately 35 basis points by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous expectation of 36 basis points prior to the release of UK inflation data [1] Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut reflects market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of England [1] - The change in expected rate cut from 36 basis points to 35 basis points suggests a minor shift in market sentiment following the inflation data release [1] - The timeline for the expected rate cut is set for the end of 2025, indicating a longer-term outlook for monetary policy in the UK [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the GBP/USD exchange rate has increased by 0.4% to 1.3451, marking the highest level since February 2022 [1] - The data indicates that the UK's inflation rate for April exceeded expectations [1]

新华财经北京5月21日电（王姝睿） 数据公司Brightmine发布的数据显示，在截至4月的三个月里，英国 雇主加薪幅度维持在3%的水平，但有迹象表示，许多公司现在的加薪幅度减小。 英国的薪资增幅已连续第五个滚动季度保持在3%，为2021年12月以来最弱。英国央行官员正在关注雇 主对社保缴款（在英国被称为国民保险）上调和全国最低工资大幅上涨的反应。这两项措施都在4月生 效，而4月是达成薪酬协议的关键月份。 Brightmine称，在其调查的雇主中，近一半的加薪幅度低于中位数3%。Brightmine此次分析涵盖了136项 在截至4月30日三个月内生效的薪资协议，涉及约30.9万名员工。 Brightmine人力资源洞察和数据主管Sheila Attwood说，薪资待遇保持稳定的表面之下，许多英国企业选 择了更低的加薪幅度，因此整体中位数在未来几个月可能会下降，低迷的薪资协议模式表明，面对将持 续到今年下半年的持续成本压力，许多雇主在做出薪资决定时仍持谨慎态度。 在考虑是否加快降息步伐之际，英国央行正在密切关注英国劳动力市场的通胀压力。英国央行可能对加 薪幅度下降表示欢迎。英国央行希望看到就业市场的通胀压力得到 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dramatic shift in UK-EU relations from a cold separation to a cooperative approach, marked by a series of agreements reached during their first formal post-Brexit summit [1][2] - The agreements cover multiple sectors including defense, fisheries, and trade, indicating a transition from "cutting" to "stitching" the relationship back together [2] - In the food trade sector, the removal of routine border checks on animal products is expected to contribute nearly £900 million annually to the UK economy [2] Group 2 - The defense procurement agreement allows UK participation in a €150 billion EU joint defense procurement plan, which includes military support for Ukraine, thus opening new markets for UK defense companies [2] - The compromise on fisheries extends the permission for EU fishing vessels to operate in UK waters until 2038, reflecting a willingness to negotiate on contentious issues [2] - The establishment of a cross-border work and living mechanism for young people aims to ease post-Brexit border issues, addressing long wait times at customs [2] Group 3 - The recent thaw in UK-EU relations is driven by bilateral interests but also reflects deeper geopolitical shifts, particularly the impact of US policy changes on transatlantic relations [3] - The unilateral actions of the US during the Russia-Ukraine conflict have left the UK and EU feeling abandoned, prompting a push for greater defense autonomy and cooperation [3] - Economic pressures from US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum have forced the UK and EU to set aside differences and collaborate to mitigate external risks [3] Group 4 - The historical context of UK-EU relations reveals a complex interplay of cooperation and estrangement over the past 80 years, with significant events like the Iraq War and the Eurozone crisis exposing vulnerabilities in the UK's "bridge" role [4] - The aftermath of Brexit has seen the UK economy suffer, with GDP contraction and inflation, leading to a reassessment of the "Global Britain" strategy and a pragmatic shift towards limited cooperation with the EU [4] - The current agreements signify a "selective return" to EU rules in exchange for market access, marking a departure from the idealistic "Global Britain" vision towards a more realistic approach [4] Group 5 - Despite the renewed closeness, structural contradictions remain, with domestic political challenges in the UK complicating the government's ability to navigate between pro-EU sentiments and Brexit commitments [5] - Unresolved issues such as Northern Ireland trade arrangements and Gibraltar sovereignty disputes continue to pose risks for future relations [5] - The geographical proximity and economic interdependence between the UK and EU suggest that practical cooperation will ultimately prevail over political rhetoric, indicating a potential future re-engagement with the EU [5]

德国DAX30指数5月20日（周二）收盘上涨119.03点，涨幅0.50%，报24025.08点； 英国富时100指数5月20日（周二）收盘上涨82.92点，涨幅0.95%，报8782.23点； 法国CAC40指数5月20日（周二）收盘上涨58.79点，涨幅0.75%，报7942.42点； 欧洲斯托克50指数5月20日（周二）收盘上涨28.52点，涨幅0.53%，报5455.75点； 西班牙IBEX35指数5月20日（周二）收盘上涨239.29点，涨幅1.70%，报14324.79点； 意大利富时MIB指数5月20日（周二）收盘上涨354.23点，涨幅0.88%，报40521.00点。 ...

路透调查：预计到2025年底，英国央行将每季度降息25个基点，至3.75%（与4月调查结果相同）。 ...