责编： 刘珺宇 校对：冉燕青 百万用户都在看 重磅利好！央行，"十箭"齐发！ 央行官宣！下周四，降准！ 集体大涨！两大利好，重磅来袭！ 吴清，最新发声！ 美国、以色列，发动大规模空袭！伊朗传出大消息 美国六大州，突然出手！贝森特发声，涉及对华关税 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 据日本广播协会(NHK)报道，当地时间7日19时许，日本东京地铁南北线的东大前站发生持刀袭击事件。 据报道，袭击事件发生在车站站台，一名男子持刀在站台挥向路人，一名女子头部和颈部多处被刺伤，随后被 紧急送医。 东京警视厅通报称，嫌疑人已被逮捕，警方正在对其身份以及作案动机进行调查。 来源：中国新闻网 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 07 日 热点品种 尿素： 尿素今日小幅高开，日内保持上行趋势。工厂价格延续上行，开启限量收单模式， 期货盘面连续上涨刺激市场需求好转。基本面情况来看，供应端，上游工厂节后 有小部分检修减产，今日日产环比小幅下降，后续联盟及刘化有检修情况，以窄 幅波动为主。需求端来看，农业备肥偏谨慎，工厂收高价成交情况一般，工业需 求仍未刚需，复合肥工厂方面，终端走货不畅，场内成品库存继续高位攀升，原 料端尿素价格上行，利润空间有所压缩，开工率连续八周下降，下游接货情绪受 盘面影响，今日上涨趋缓，关注后续动能。本周库存转为去化，除供应小幅下降 外，需求情况表现为有所增加，对盘面提供支撑力度。今日宏观一览政策发布， 基本面数据有所改善，盘面相对高位运行，出现增仓上行状态，受出口传言影响， 市场预期偏高，但目前暂时无官方消息证实，仍需等待跟踪后续情况，注意盘面 风险。 碳酸锂： 碳酸锂连续六日下降后，今日开盘后迅速走低，再创历史新低，午后窄幅震荡， 收盘价 646 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of monetary policy measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates to support economic recovery and stabilize market expectations [2][3] - The RRR cut is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, effective from May 15 [3][4] - The policy interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation will decrease from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4][5] Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC also lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, enhancing the effectiveness of these tools in supporting key sectors such as technology innovation and consumer services [6][7] - A new 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan program was established to guide banks in increasing credit support for these areas [6][7] Housing Market Support - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6%, potentially saving residents over 20 billion yuan in interest annually [5][6] - For a 1 million yuan, 30-year loan, monthly payments will decrease by approximately 133 yuan, resulting in a total interest savings of about 47,600 yuan [5] Long-term Investment Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight new policies aimed at increasing long-term investments, including adjustments to insurance company stock investment risk factors, which could lead to an estimated increase of over 130 billion yuan in incremental capital [8][9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working on reforms to enhance the capital market's resilience and support for technology innovation bonds, aiming to improve the overall investment environment [9][10] Market Stability Measures - The CSRC is focused on stabilizing the market by enhancing monitoring and risk assessment, while also promoting reforms in the STAR Market and GEM to improve adaptability and inclusiveness [9][10] - The introduction of a public fund reform plan aims to shift the focus from scale to returns, optimizing the fee structure for active equity funds [10]

降息降准终于来了。但为什么是在这个时候呢？ 今年以来，国家多次提及降息降准，却一直未落地，引发诸多猜测。此前我们曾提到，中美之间的降息节奏，关键要看美国美联储的动作。若美联储不降 息，我国率先降息，会拉大中美利差，进而导致资金外流。当前市场流动性严重不足，若降息节奏过快，尤其在美国之前降息，即便释放流动性，也可能无 法弥补资金出逃造成的缺口。 我国提前降准降息，主要基于以下原因：其一，当前市场流动性不足，已出现通缩迹象，必须释放流动性；其二，银行储蓄过高，今年一季度银行居民存款 增加 9 万多亿。自 2022 年 3 月美国降息后，我国居民存款持续上涨，目前人均居民存款超 11 万，总计达 140 多万亿。大量资金未进入市场流通，导致 M1 与 M2 的剪刀差不断扩大，反映出市场活力不足。尽管上个月数据显示剪刀差正在缩小，但此时降准降息，正是推动资金从 "死钱" 变为 "活钱"，促进市场 流通、提升经济活跃度的好时机。 当前，美债收益率不断上涨，我国国债收益率则呈下降趋势，降息降准后，我国国债收益率可能进一步下降，中美利差会进一步拉大。但值得注意的是，美 债利率上涨是因被抛售导致，这意味着资金正在撤离美国市场 ...

Market Overview - The overall market index showed a slight increase in trading volume, with a turnover of approximately 1.5 trillion [1] - The market experienced a high followed by a pullback, indicating a tendency for profit-taking among investors [1] - Sector performance was characterized by rotation, with initial gains in the financial and real estate sectors driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, but these gains could not be sustained [1] Sector Analysis - The military industry sector emerged as the main focus of the day, driven by specific events that catalyzed its rise [2] - The recent increase in military stocks is viewed as a short-term behavior, with a strong foundation for long-term growth due to the need to fulfill 40% of the remaining orders from the previous five-year plan [2] - Despite the positive long-term outlook, many military stocks also experienced a pullback during the overall market decline, indicating volatility [2] Investment Opportunities - The robotics technology sector attracted significant capital flow, particularly in the afternoon, indicating investor interest [1] - Chemical stocks, exemplified by Hongbaoli, received attention due to their strong capital gathering attributes, leading to localized profit-making effects [1] - The military sector's potential for growth is supported by international dynamics, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, and China's advancements in military equipment [2]

先下后上。 节后第二天，市场期待已久的降准降息同时落地。5月7日上午，国新办举行的新闻发布会上，央行行长 潘功胜宣布了一揽子共10项货币政策措施，成为继去年"924"新政后又一政策"大礼包"。 从当天市场表现来看，早盘股市受相关消息提振集体大涨，多个板块掀起涨停潮，之后三大股指纷纷回 落，尾盘则再度拉升全部收涨。相比之下，债市短端利率有所下行，长债利率却是不降反升，反应略 显"平淡"。 一揽子金融政策对债市影响几何？受访人士认为，降准降息同时落地超出市场预期，但降幅低于预期， 市场看多者众，但做多情绪不足。随着利好落地，后续进入政策效果观察阶段，市场目光将进一步聚焦 经济数据表现、关税谈判进展及影响，以及资金面变化。 7日上午出台的一揽子货币政策举措中，关于降准，潘功胜宣布降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将 向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；完善存款准备金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存 款准备金率，从目前的5%调降至0%。 关于降息，潘功胜宣布下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降 至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点 ...

简评 5 月 7 日三部委新闻发布会 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 分析师：张德礼 | 报告摘要 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 |  2025 年 5 月 7 日，三部委召开新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" | | Email：zhangdl01@zts.com.cn | 有关情况，对此有以下学习体会： | | |  第一，会议超预期。首先是召开时间，昨天下午才提前公告的。其次是均为一把手出 | | 相关报告 | 席，市场之前对出席的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期，货币政策降 | | | 准降息，三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股市。除了落实 月 日政治局会议外，可能也 4 25 | | | 和 4 月官方制造业 PMI 弱于季节性有关。 | | | 股波动不大，在岸人民币兑美  第二，市场反应相对平稳。预告一揽子金融政策后，A | | | 元汇率窄幅震荡，长端利率上行。对比 924 新闻发布会看，本次新闻发布会期间市场 | | | 表现相对平稳，一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后，中国各类稳市场政策取 ...

和讯投顾王海洋分析称，昨天说了，大盘这个地方要想短期加速，那今天就会有动作，但是这个前提是 今天不出利好的情况下，那么今天早晨开了很多会，出了一些降准降息的一系列的利好，所以说大盘直 接跳空，包括我们说的金融股直接跳空，很多人一看到高开激动得很利好来了，结果没有涨，或者说高 开低走了，那这个时候他们就会产出出局的想法。我认为今天的高开低走，主要的主要的任务还是震仓 和洗盘。那么市场在今天的这个今天的这个走势高开，并没有直接高走，不代表它这个地方就不加速或 者不涨了。这我认为短线可以延后一天。因为今天的大盘它虽然说没有大涨，但是它也没有大跌，它也 它至少是重心往上抬了，它是长了向上拓展了。所以说大盘可以再给它一天的时间。 由于利好突发利好的来袭，那么我们可以再继续持股，等待明天的市场反应。那么我们可以具体可以看 到指数的走势，今天大盘高开基本上把这个呃大阴线的缺口完全补上，那么这个利好也是呃高开，也是 主要是金融股。那么我们可以看一下这个地方毕竟是有套牢盘的，对吧？毕竟是在这一带是有套牢盘 的。那么今天高开低走，那么它就再加上出了利好，它属于被动高开，那么很多散户一看到高开就冲进 去了。所以说主力在今天他可能选 ...

据不完全统计，上海、长沙、西安、合肥、郑州、海南等地的住房公积金管理中心相继发布通知。梳理 各地公告来看，针对存量个人住房公积金贷款利率，2025年5月8日(不含)前已经发放的个人住房公积金 贷款，本年度内执行原利率，自2026年1月1日起执行调整后的利率。此外，针对5月8日前个人住房公积 金贷款申请已被受理但未发放的贷款，发放时执行调整后的利率标准。 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静则表示，此次降准降息如期落地有望明显提振市场信心，居民住房商 贷、公积金贷款利率均将下调，居民购房压力有望进一步减弱，对于促进购房需求释放将产生实质性利 好。同时，企业融资成本也将继续回落，对于企业资金面的改善也将产生积极影响。 5月7日，中国人民银行发布关于下调个人住房公积金贷款利率的通知称，中国人民银行决定，自2025年 5月8日起，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。据悉，此次住房公积金贷款利率调整范围既包 括新发放的住房公积金贷款，也包括存量住房公积金贷款。随后，多地发布通知，从8日起下调个人住 房公积金贷款利率。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示，此次住房公积金贷款利率调整范围既包括新发放的住 房公积金贷 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank, financial regulatory authority, and securities commission jointly announced a series of monetary policy measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3][4] - The open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate was lowered from 1.50% to 1.40%, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments due to external pressures [5][6] - There is potential for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio, with expectations of a possible additional 0.5 percentage point cut in the third quarter [4][5] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Support - The policy includes a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan rate, lowering the interest rate for first-time homebuyers from 2.85% to 2.6% [8][9] - An approval quota exceeding 6 trillion yuan for real estate financing is expected to be largely implemented, which will help improve liquidity for key real estate companies and stabilize the industry [10] - The impact of the loan rate reduction on first-time homebuyers is anticipated to be positive, although the overall market recovery will depend on various factors beyond just interest rate changes [9][10] Group 3: Capital Market Stability - The total amount for capital market support tools has been increased to 800 billion yuan, which includes measures to facilitate stock repurchases and enhance liquidity [11][12] - Concerns regarding the withdrawal of state support from the capital market are addressed, emphasizing that the state will continue to play a stabilizing role during market downturns [12] - The state’s intervention is characterized as a non-profit endeavor aimed at maintaining market stability and controlling risks [12] Group 4: External Trade and Economic Outlook - The future external environment is expected to remain uncertain and unstable, with increased exchange rate risks anticipated over the next few years [14][15] - Despite these challenges, there is strong confidence in the resilience and long-term growth potential of the Chinese economy, which is viewed as a global leader [16] - Companies are encouraged to manage exchange rate risks through financial derivatives while focusing on improving their profitability and risk management capabilities [15][16]