Group 1 - The Trump administration announced a "historic victory" with the UK regarding a trade agreement, but it lacks details and legal binding, described as a "framework document" [1][3] - The agreement includes a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US, down from 27.5%, while punitive tariffs of 25% remain on additional vehicles [3] - The UK has made significant concessions, including eliminating tariffs on Boeing engines and opening its agricultural market to US products, while the US maintains a 10% baseline tariff on most goods [3][5] Group 2 - The UK government has not confirmed the completion of negotiations, viewing the current status as a "phase of understanding" rather than a finalized agreement [5][7] - Analysts highlight that the agreement lacks specific concessions, legislative authority, and enforcement mechanisms, rendering it similar to a "gentlemen's agreement" [7][8] - The establishment of a 10% baseline tariff signals a politicization of tariffs, with the US using them as a diplomatic pressure tool rather than a means of free trade [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Stephen King from HSBC highlights the historical perspective on the rise and fall of reserve currencies, particularly focusing on the potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under the Trump administration's policies [1][22]. Historical Perspective on Reserve Currency Decline - The report reviews the history of reserve currencies, indicating that the issuing country often sacrifices some economic sovereignty for international cooperation [3][22]. - Historical evidence suggests that negative policies designed to limit a currency's international use are more effective than positive interventions aimed at encouraging it [3]. - The collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s caused significant economic turmoil, with the Federal Reserve setting low interest rates that led to a stock market bubble [3][9]. Bretton Woods System and Dollar Resurgence - Post-World War II, the dollar emerged as the primary reserve currency, established during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the dollar was pegged to gold [6][9]. - The Bretton Woods system revealed weaknesses, as some countries benefited from fixed exchange rates while others faced competitiveness issues and financing crises [6]. - The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, marked by Nixon's policies, led to significant financial instability and volatility in asset prices [9][12]. Trump Administration's Impact on Dollar's Reserve Status - The Trump administration's approach to the dollar's reserve status may pose greater risks than its tariff policies [22]. - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. government views the dollar as "overvalued" and may implement measures to redefine its role as a reserve currency [25]. - Potential measures include sanctions against countries holding dollar assets that conflict with U.S. interests and encouraging other nations to restructure their U.S. asset holdings [25][26]. Future Predictions and Risks - If the U.S. attempts to reclaim control over the dollar, it could lead to a significant shift towards gold, resulting in severe liquidity shortages and potential financial turmoil similar to the 1930s or 1970s [27][30]. - The report predicts that emerging economies may adopt a "safety first" approach to balance their international accounts, potentially leading to a decline in global demand [30].

据智通财经消息，特朗普称马斯克团队审查美财政部数据发现违规，暗示36万亿美债或有"水分"。这场 债务疑云背后，藏着美国当下的多重困境。 美联储主席鲍威尔（资料图） 美联储这边也和特朗普闹得不愉快。特朗普一直要求降息，还多次炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，威胁要让他 走人。鲍威尔可不吃这一套，直接回怼特朗普没权力解除自己职务，还说美联储不会受政治压力影响， 得先顾着对抗通胀。两人这么一闹，金融市场更慌了，美元汇率跟着下跌。 再看国际上，特朗普的关税政策也没捞到好处。想靠关税逼着其他国家投资美国，可人家都不傻，美国 营商风险高，关税政策又不稳定，谁也不想当冤大头。日本之前想和美国谈投资，最后也没谈拢。其他 国家反而借着这个机会，加强和中国的合作。中欧经贸投资协定、中国 - 东盟合作，还有中日韩自贸 区，都在推进，人民币国际化的步子越迈越大，美元霸权却在一点点被削弱。 特朗普发动的关税战，本想在中美博弈中占得先机，结果却把美国自己拖进了泥沼。多轮互相加征关税 后，美国金融市场率先扛不住。美股接连暴跌，三大股指市值蒸发上万亿美元。即便特朗普宣布暂停新 关税生效三个月，也没能稳住局面，股市依旧跌跌不休。 特朗普（资料图） 美债市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming China-US economic and trade high-level talks in Switzerland are seen as an opportunity to alleviate trade tensions and provide certainty for global economic growth [1] Group 1: China's Economic Strategy - China focuses on high-quality development and high-level openness as a source of confidence in its ability to handle external challenges [1] - The country emphasizes the importance of concentrating on domestic affairs to enhance resilience against external shocks [1] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Opportunities - China's large market size offers significant opportunities, while institutional openness provides certainty and benefits [1] - The nation has cultivated a robust innovation ecosystem that contributes to sustained economic momentum [1] - The dual circulation strategy enhances the resilience of the economy, allowing for mutual promotion between domestic and international markets [1] Group 3: Global Cooperation and Trade - China expresses a commitment to strengthening coordination with the international community to resist unilateral protectionism and hegemonic practices [1] - The country advocates for the maintenance of free trade and multilateralism, aiming to promote inclusive global economic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes learning from history, particularly the lessons of World War II, to oppose all forms of hegemony and to work together for a better future for humanity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Significance - Xi Jinping highlights the importance of a correct view of World War II history, stressing that the victory over fascism was achieved through immense sacrifices, particularly by China and the Soviet Union [2][3][4]. - The article references the shared historical memories of China and Russia during World War II, reinforcing the notion of enduring friendship between the two nations [2][3]. - Various international scholars agree on the necessity of preserving historical truths to prevent the repetition of past tragedies, emphasizing the collective responsibility to uphold the memory of World War II [2][4]. Group 2: Global Governance and Cooperation - Xi Jinping calls for a global governance system based on fairness and justice, opposing unilateralism and hegemony, which aligns with the interests of developing countries [5][6]. - The article proposes three global initiatives aimed at addressing deficits in peace, development, security, and governance, advocating for dialogue and cooperation rather than division [5][6]. - The emphasis on building a community with a shared future for mankind reflects a commitment to inclusive and equitable global governance [5][6]. Group 3: Taiwan and International Order - Xi Jinping asserts that Taiwan's return to China is a crucial part of the outcomes of World War II and the post-war international order, which is widely recognized by the international community [4]. - The article warns that denying the results of World War II could severely disrupt the existing international order, highlighting China's firm stance on its core interests [4].

今年4月以来，美国特朗普政府所谓"对等关税"政策搅动世界经贸体系，全球金融市场随之陷入剧烈波动中，美国本土市场首当其冲。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，4月份，美国金融市场多次出现股债汇"三线齐跌"的现象。Wind数据显示，美股标普500指数当月下跌0.7625%，道琼斯工业指 数当月下跌3.1722%；美债则遭遇"抛长买短"，两年期美债收益率从月初的3.87%一度下降至3.6%，十年期美债收益率从月初的4.17%迅速拉升，最高达到 4.48%。 汇市方面，美元指数4月开盘104.179，收盘99.646，录得4.36%的跌幅，其间最低触达97.910。而在此之前，美元指数已长期维持在105以上的高位，且于今 年1月10日以109.6567创2023年以来的最高值。最新数据显示，截至记者发稿，美元指数徘徊在100.41附近。 中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员肖宇在接受记者采访时指出，4月份美国金融市场股债汇三杀在其历史上屈指可数。"即使是在2008年次贷危 机期间，流动性短缺导致美三大股指大幅回撤，但债市和汇市涨跌互现，也未形成单边一致性下跌"。 显然，在美国掀起的关税风暴催化下，资本市场对美元资产信 ...

文 | 空纸 编辑 | 空纸 前言 2025年就在美联储还在犹豫要不要降息、特朗普继续嘴硬打贸易战的时候，亚洲几个经济体却用"脚"投了票。 最新消息显示，日韩资本正在悄然撤出美元资产，亚洲的"抛美元潮"已经拉开了大幕。 2.5万亿美元的资金正虎视眈眈，等待合适时机"逃离美元"，与此同时，中国央行果断出手，不仅抢在美联储之前降息降准，还连续 六个月增持黄金。 反观美国，通胀还没压下去，经济却已现疲态，鲍威尔还要装作镇定自若地宣布利率不变。 如果连日本韩国都开始"去美元"，那是不是说明连盟友都开始不信它了？ 美国的经济发动机还能运转多久，中国连续买金又意味着什么？ 日韩反水 曾几何时，美元资产被视为全球最安全的"避风港"，无论是全球经济危机还是市场动荡，资本总是毫不犹豫地涌入美元资产中寻求 避险。 然而，今天，这一局面正悄然发生变化。 来自日本和韩国的大规模资本正在加速撤离美国市场，不再购买美债，也不再投资美股，甚至开始将大量资金流向亚洲本土市场， 特别是中国和东南亚。 而随着这些国家的资本开始流出，美国市场逐渐丧失了昔日的吸引力。 更为严重的是，美联储在面对美国经济疲软的情况下依然坚持维持高利率政策。 这一政策 ...

美国街头（资料图） 据北京日报报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普日前再次炮轰联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、要求其马上降息 后，美国金融市场应声大跌。特朗普22日改变先前说法，称"无意"解除鲍威尔职务。特朗普22日在白宫媒体会 上反复表示，他"从没有打算"解除鲍威尔的职务。特朗普同时重申眼下是美联储降息的"完美时刻"，他想看到鲍 威尔就降息"更积极主动一些"，但即便鲍威尔没有照做，也不意味着"终结"，只不过当下是降息的"好时机"。 据智通财经报道，美国总统特朗普表示，由马斯克领导的政府效率部在审查美国财政部的数据时发现了违规行 为。他的政府正在检查美国财政部的债务支付是否存在欺诈行为，并暗示美国36万亿美元的债务负担可能并没 有那么高。特朗普接受采访时称，政府官员一直在梳理付款记录，努力查明浪费性支出，而现在他们正把注意 力转向了在全球金融体系中发挥核心作用的债务支付。目前还不清楚特朗普指的问题是有关债务偿付还是其他 政府付款领域。 美债已经出现抛售潮，美债收益率节节攀升，10 年期美债收益率更是创下2002年11月以来最大周涨幅，甚至一 度超过 4.5%。美债收益率飙涨，美国支付的利息必然水涨船高，进而增大还债 ...

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding interest rate cuts, with Trump insisting that the Fed must lower rates to support small businesses, while the Fed maintains its current stance [1][3] - Trump's push for interest rate cuts is linked to the significant trade deficit the U.S. faces, which amounts to $1.2 trillion annually, and the burden of interest payments on national debt, which reached $1.1 trillion last year [3][5] - The debate highlights the tension between U.S. domestic monetary policy and its implications for global confidence in the dollar, raising concerns about the long-term dominance of the dollar in the global economy [3][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential shift in investment strategies away from the U.S. dollar, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to invest in infrastructure projects across various regions, thereby reducing reliance on the dollar [5][6] - The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) under the Belt and Road framework signifies a move towards multi-currency operations, enhancing the role of currencies other than the dollar in international finance [5][6] - The current trend suggests a move towards currency diversification rather than a single currency replacing the dollar, indicating the emergence of a multi-polar currency system [6]

这是2015年5月8日习近平主席在莫斯科为俄罗斯老战士代表颁发纪念奖章时的一幕。 "在场很多俄罗斯老战士参加过解放长春、沈阳、牡丹江、大连等地的战斗，为中国人民抗日战争最终胜利作出了重要贡献。" 习近平主席在会见他们时指出，"中俄两国人民用鲜血和生命凝结成了深厚友谊，奠定了中俄关系和两国人民世代友好的坚实基础。" 今年5月7日，在赴莫斯科对俄罗斯进行国事访问并出席纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年庆典之际，习近平主席在俄罗斯媒体发表的署名文章中，特别提到 了10年前会见俄罗斯老战士代表时的场景，"老战士们的铮铮铁骨和坚毅神情我至今难忘"。 (版) (第五 ton : 0:00: Ha t SIII FILE om to HH 開 H M 播 清 清 清 面 Partil gr DITHTS 4 2017 12:50 中网 狗 刷 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 網 中新网5月7日电题：再赴俄罗斯，习近平特别提到这些老战士 "我过去给你颁奖，你别过来了。" 看到90岁的老战士加维尔托夫斯基腿脚不便，习近平主席快步走到老人身边，为他佩戴上了纪念奖章。 今年是中国人民抗日战争、苏联伟大卫国战争暨世 ...