Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve projects that by the end of 2025, economic growth will significantly slow down, inflation will rise, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase [5]. - The core inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%, and will decline to 2.4% by 2026 and further to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025, higher than the previous estimate of 4.4%, and is expected to remain at 4.5% until 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2027 [6]. - The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [6][7]. Interest Rate Predictions - The latest "dot plot" indicates that the number of officials who do not expect any rate cuts this year has increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more cautious stance [8]. - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 support two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe there should be no cuts, 2 support one cut, and 2 advocate for three cuts [8]. Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned against over-reliance on interest rate predictions, emphasizing that forecasts may change based on incoming data, particularly inflation data [10]. - Powell highlighted the high level of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and stated that the Federal Reserve is willing to "wait and see" for more information before making any policy adjustments [10].

6月会议还发布了对通胀、失业率和经济增长的预期。 | Variable | | | Median1 | | | Central Tendency2 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | | | | | | run | | | | run | | | | Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.8 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.1-2.1 | 0.6-2. | | March projection | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5-1.9 | 1.6-1.9 | 1.6-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.0-2.4 | 0.6-2. | | Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们会尽最大努力做出最准确的预测。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：人们正在预测最有可能的利率路径，或者说可能性最低的路径。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：今天我们就改善沟通方式进行了高度讨论，包括对经济预测摘要的调整，秋季将就 沟通方式的调整进行更详细的讨论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that as more data becomes available, the discrepancies in interest rate forecasts will narrow [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data to adjust its interest rate predictions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests potential shifts in interest rate strategies based on upcoming economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the differences in interest rate paths among officials reflect the diversity of economic forecasts, including inflation [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，终有一天美联储会变得更加有信心，可能会达到一个适合降息的位置；没有人 对利率路径的预测抱有很大信心，可以为预测中的任何利率路径提供合理的理由。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储在预测能力方面必须保持谦逊。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：没有人对利率路径的预测抱有很大信心，可以为预测中的任何利率路径提供合理的 理由。 ...