Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a collective increase, with significant gains in the photovoltaic sector driven by a renewed "anti-involution" trend aimed at promoting healthy industry development [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.39% [1]. - The total market turnover reached 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating strong trading activity [1]. - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) saw a notable increase of 5.9% [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has experienced two "anti-involution" trends, with the first occurring in late 2023 and the second currently underway, aimed at curbing unhealthy competition [3][4]. - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association has initiated self-regulation measures, including the publication of fair component costs and the signing of self-discipline agreements among companies [3][4]. - Recent government policies have emphasized the need to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is currently characterized by significant homogeneity, with supply far exceeding demand; existing capacity is projected to meet demand until 2030 without supply-side reforms [4]. - Operating rates across various segments of the photovoltaic industry are between 40% and 60%, with polysilicon operating rates around 40% due to high existing capacity and inventory [4]. - The prices of photovoltaic components have seen fluctuations due to installation rushes, but are expected to stabilize as demand normalizes [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The main theme for the future remains capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand across the entire photovoltaic supply chain [5][6]. - The photovoltaic glass market is stable, with leading companies holding over 50% market share; proactive capacity reduction measures are anticipated to alleviate inventory pressures [5][6]. - Technological advancements, such as the development of BC batteries and the reduction of silver usage in cell production, are expected to drive down costs and improve efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently trading on expectations of supply-side regulation, with strong policies leading to price increases from silicon material manufacturers, which in turn amplifies bullish sentiment. Confidence in the current round of supply-side regulation is expected to continue, with anticipated actions such as capacity mergers, elimination of outdated capacity, and regulation of low-priced products [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns regarding weak realities, as increased production from major manufacturers in July and continued supply pressure in August may lead to a return to inventory accumulation for polysilicon in the second half of the year. The bargaining power remains with downstream players, creating uncertainty about whether they can accept price increases from silicon manufacturers [1] - A strategy focusing on cross-commodity hedging is recommended, as additional bullish stimuli are needed for polysilicon futures to continue rising. The current market does not show fundamental improvements or confirmation of timing, suggesting that single-direction strategies may carry increased volatility risks [1] Supply Capacity Dynamics - As of now, China's nominal polysilicon capacity stands at 3.084 million tons, with an additional planned capacity of 2.188 million tons. Various projects are experiencing delays, such as the 100,000-ton output from Hongli in Qinghai, which is expected in mid-July, while other projects have been postponed [3] - The global polysilicon production for July is projected at 109,100 tons, reflecting an 11.94% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, there are no significant recovery actions observed in Xinjiang's production capacity, and the overall supply pressure is expected to persist [3] Market Feedback and Price Trends - The polysilicon market is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced production from downstream sectors, leading to a forecast of inventory accumulation in the second half of 2025. Current inventory levels are expected to rise to 4-5 months [3] - In July, the global silicon wafer production was reported at 51.84 GW, a decrease of 10.98% quarter-on-quarter, with prices for various types of silicon wafers showing declines [5] - The battery cell production for July is estimated at 57.12 GW, with inventory levels rising rapidly due to weakened demand. The price for battery cells has also decreased, indicating ongoing market challenges [5] Future Projections - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 579.17 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.28%. However, the Chinese market is projected to see a decline in new installations due to demand being pulled forward earlier in the year [5] - The European market shows signs of recovery, with an expected annual installation of 70.65 GW, while the U.S. market is anticipated to face challenges due to policy changes affecting new installations [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices in China experienced collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.39% [1][3]. - The photovoltaic sector saw significant ETF performance, with multiple ETFs such as the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising by 5.90% and the E Fund Photovoltaic ETF increasing by 5.57% [1][10]. Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics sectors led the day with gains of 2.89%, 2.3%, and 2.27% respectively, while utilities, banking, and household appliances lagged behind with declines [6]. - Over the past five trading days, the construction materials, steel, and comprehensive sectors showed strong performance with increases of 5.71%, 5.43%, and 3.67% respectively [6]. ETF Market Activity - The overall performance of ETFs indicated that thematic stock ETFs had the best average gain of 1.46%, while bond ETFs showed no change [8]. - The top-performing ETFs included the Photovoltaic 50 ETF, Photovoltaic Leader ETF, and E Fund Photovoltaic ETF, with returns of 5.90%, 5.57%, and 5.57% respectively [10]. - The top three ETFs by trading volume were the A500 ETF Fund, A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan, and A500 ETF Jiashi, with trading volumes of 3.73 billion, 3.37 billion, and 3.09 billion respectively [12][13]. Investment Trends - There is a notable influx of capital into the technology innovation sector, highlighted by the rapid issuance of the first batch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs, which collectively raised 30 billion yuan [2]. - The introduction of technology innovation bond ETFs is seen as strategically significant, filling a gap in public funds within the "technology finance" bond fund sector and promoting targeted investment in hard technology [2].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 07 月 08 日 固定收益研究 债市周观察（6.30-7.6）——"反内卷"和"供给侧改革 2.0"成 热门话题 上周，资金面跨季后回归充裕，DR007 中枢进一步下移至 1.42%附近，但 宽松流动性未能有效传导至债市利率，没有货币政策触发因素下，收益率 难以继续下台阶，债市延续窄幅波动。6 月初以来市场就开始博弈可能会 重启买卖国债，且对 7 月打开降息窗口也有一定猜测，临近季末，央行通 过延迟公布买卖国债数据和二季度货币政策例会通稿删除"择机降准降 息"表述的方式，释放信号瓦解了市场一致预期。7 月 2 日，央行公布 6 月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，当月重启买卖国债预期完全落空。 另外，6 月 30 日，国家统计局公布了当月 PMI 数据，制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，前值为 49.5%，仍处于收缩区间，对债市影响不大。 7 月 1 日召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，会议中释放出"反内卷"的信 号，强调"要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业 提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。会议引发对"供给侧改革 2.0" 的政策导向预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector, particularly polysilicon stocks, experienced a significant surge, with leading companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Daqo New Energy Corp. seeing substantial gains, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential recovery in the polysilicon market [1][2]. Industry Summary - The polysilicon market has shown signs of recovery, with a balanced supply-demand situation and no new inventory pressures reported [3][4]. - Monthly polysilicon production has stabilized around 100,000 tons, with expectations of an annual output of approximately 1.2 million tons, allowing for the consumption of about 100,000 tons of inventory in the second half of the year [4][5]. - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has slightly increased, reflecting a 0.87% week-on-week rise, indicating a positive price trend in the market [3]. - The industry is currently facing a significant reduction in production capacity, with nine companies having ceased operations since the beginning of 2024, contributing to a more favorable supply-demand balance [3][5]. - The overall domestic polysilicon production for the first half of the year was approximately 596,000 tons, a substantial year-on-year decrease of 44.1%, highlighting the impact of reduced operational capacity [4].

Core Points - The Chinese A-share market experienced a significant increase on July 8, with major indices closing in the green, marking a four-day consecutive rise and approaching the 3500-point threshold for the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3497 points, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to 10588 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.39% to 2181 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 14539 billion RMB, an increase of about 2453 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector led the market with a 5.55% increase, driven by stocks such as Shihang New Energy, Yijing Photovoltaic, and Tongwei Co., which saw significant price gains, including Shihang New Energy's approximately 20% rise [1] - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, recently held a meeting focusing on accelerating the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need to address low-price competition and promote product quality improvement [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent signals from the Chinese government to combat "involution" in the photovoltaic industry may accelerate the clearing of excess supply and push for technological advancements, shifting the focus from price competition to technological differentiation [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is somewhat cautious, and the black - related products are oscillating weakly. Steel prices are affected by factors such as the off - season consumption, production changes, and market sentiment. Iron ore prices are influenced by global shipments and iron - water production. Double - coking products are in a state of multi - empty game, and power coal prices are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils were 3061 yuan/ton and 3191 yuan/ton respectively. The national urban inventory of building materials was 375.07 million tons, a 1.29% month - on - month increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 174.22 million tons, a 1.87% month - on - month increase. The national building materials transaction volume was 96,000 tons. Building materials are in the off - season, with a slight increase in production and low inventory. Plate production has a slight month - on - month increase, and the current export remains high. The market lacks speculative demand, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore weakened slightly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 731 yuan/ton, a 0.68% decline. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained stable. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total of 29.95 million tons. The daily transaction volume of national main ports decreased by 8.14% month - on - month, and the forward spot transaction volume decreased by 13.13% month - on - month. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Double - Coking Products - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures of double - coking products oscillated. The spot market of port coke was stable, and the domestic market sentiment improved. The inventory of the two ports increased slightly. The price of coking coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The expectation of domestic coal mine resumption is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. The iron - water production of steel mills is at a high level but shows a downward trend. The supply - demand of coking coal has improved slightly. The profit of coke enterprises is not good, but the downstream steel demand has improved. In the short term, the supply - demand of coke has improved slightly, and in the long term, it is still in a relatively loose pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in unilateral trading, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of steam coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The procurement of chemical and platform large customers is stable, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. The supply has basically recovered at the beginning of the month, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The upstream shipping cost at the port has increased, and there is a structural shortage of goods. The downstream rigid demand procurement has been completed in stages, and the coal consumption is expected to increase with the expansion of high - temperature areas. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion with the domestic winning bid price, and the low - calorie Indonesian coal has obvious cost - performance advantages [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 8 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-8） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行。产业端淡季， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，240 以上的 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情况。供给侧改革消息扰 | | | | | 动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石中长期 | | | | | 看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面， | | | | | 供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，建议前期空单离场观望。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | | | 消息面传出部分地区焦企或将复产，临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产， | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦市场供应有望回升 ...