Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for gold remains bullish despite recent fluctuations, with potential upward movement expected after a recent low at 3120 [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold opened lower this week, establishing a weak foundation, but a key support level at 3200 is critical; if it holds, a range-bound movement is expected, while a break below could indicate further weakness [2]. - A significant rebound occurred after hitting 3120, with prices rising to 3250, aligning with market expectations [2][4]. - The next targets for gold are projected at 3300 and 3400, following the confirmation of a mid-term adjustment completion [2][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a decline but has not broken below 31.5, indicating a continued bullish trend with high-level fluctuations [2]. - A recent low at 31.6 provided a buying opportunity, with current prices around 32.7, suggesting profitable positions for traders [5]. Domestic Futures Market - In the domestic futures market, a cautious approach was advised until a solid bottom was established; recent positions in沪金 and融通金 were initiated around 740, with prices now reaching 755 [5]. - The domestic silver market also reflected a bullish sentiment, with a recent low at 8000 providing a strong support level, leading to a rise to 8200 [6]. Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has entered a state of fluctuation, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral stance, observing a trading range between 63.5 and 60.5 [6]. - The domestic fuel market has seen a bullish trend, with expectations of reaching 2750/2800, and current prices around 2720 suggest a wait-and-see approach [7].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a trend structure with a significant focus on the index levels, particularly the movement from 3040 to 3417, indicating a potential upward trend [1][2] - The recent high of 3417 is seen as a critical point, with a 2:1 ratio relationship established between the previous highs and the current levels, suggesting a calculated approach to market movements [1] - A potential support level is identified at 3368, while 3394 serves as a resistance level, indicating key points for market analysis in the near term [2] Group 2 - The market's ability to maintain strength above the support level of 3368 is crucial for continued upward momentum, with the possibility of further extensions in the trend if this level holds [2] - The analysis suggests that if a reversal structure occurs, it could lead to significant market movements in the following week, highlighting the importance of monitoring short-term trends [2] - The current state of the market is characterized by a cautious optimism, with the potential for further gains if the index does not weaken significantly [2]

黄金多头反弹无力，空头努力能否形成回报？新的趋势机会即将出现？最新一期《Steven趋势方程式》 栏目已经更新，点击即可观看 相关链接 黄金牛市岌岌可危，3212关口已沦陷！ ...

利多情绪下能化供应扰动消息频出,显然有 多头资金借势推涨 摘要: 中期本轮原油反弹力度远弱于其他风险资产,主要逻辑仍是 OPEC+不断加速增产下不断加强的供应过剩预期。中期供需过剩的驱 动下,短期非供需层面的逻辑均视作阶段性上涨(反弹）,而非反转。 昨晚美财政部再次制裁伊朗以及特朗普施压伊朗言论再度推动价格, 关注前高（WIT 主力 64 美元）下的逢高空机会,短期斜率较大,可 寻反转形态机会而非破位右侧机会。 两日部分品种如芳烃系品种由于出口预期重新回升情绪亢奋,日 内有短线低多的策略。但小时周期上,油化工品种在对原油保持中期 偏空的观点下,本轮的短期上涨不参与,均等短期破位后的右侧做空 机会。 (一) 原油: 日度技术分析:原油目线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日再度反弹测试中期压力位,对应 WTI63 美元的中期压力位, 虽然盘面短期的结构依然是上涨,但如测试中期压力不过后,仍将回 探考验 468一线支撑。策略上小时周期前日空单指数后寻找新的增仓 反包形态,或等待跌破5月13日低点后找右侧反弹空机会。 板块观点汇总 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 品种 偏空 偏多 空单止损后再等新的增仓 ...

CPI数据未增加"鹰派"担忧，黄金下行空间有限？今夜多头势力是否入场？日内交易者如何把握时机？ TTPS团队卢教练正在分享，立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金日内交易分析中 ...

巴克莱：对冲基金约10%的美元/港元多头头寸被平仓 智通财经5月14日电，巴克莱称，对冲基金在过去两年积累了420亿美元的美元/港元多头仓位，其中约 8%至10%在过去一周因市场波动和香港金管局干预而被平仓。策略师Lemon Zhang及其同事在给客户的 报告中写道，做多美元/港元是近年来最受欢迎的套利交易之一。IPO、股息支付引发港元需求；4-6月 股息支付预计将达到361亿美元，几乎是往年平均水平的两倍，但未来几周这些驱动因素可能会再次减 弱，香港料维持联系汇率制。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened high but closed low on May 13, with total trading volume at 1.33 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Over 3200 stocks declined, while sectors such as port shipping, photovoltaic, banking, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and CSI 300 Index rose, while other indices fell [1] Options Market Activity - Total options trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 5.19 million contracts, down from 5.39 million contracts the previous day [1] - Total open interest increased to 8.91 million contracts, up from 8.16 million contracts [1] - The trading volume of the SSE 50 ETF options decreased by 31.53%, while open interest increased by 10.42% [1] - The SSE 50 ETF options traded 674,400 contracts, down from 985,000 contracts the previous day, with open interest at 1.47 million contracts, up from 1.33 million contracts [1] Options Position Changes - For the May contracts, a total of 75,100 contracts were added, with call options increasing by 32,900 contracts and put options by 42,200 contracts [1] - The increase in both call and put options occurred in the shallow out-of-the-money positions, with a broader increase in call options, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1] CSI 300 Options Performance - The trading volume for CSI 300 options also showed a decline, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's CSI 300 ETF options down by 32.85% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's down by 23.96% [2] - Open interest for CSI 300 ETF options increased, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange up by 11.92% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange up by 9.84% [2] - The total increase in open interest for the Shanghai Stock Exchange's CSI 300 ETF options was 53,400 contracts, with call options increasing by 28,200 contracts and put options by 25,200 contracts [2] Volatility Analysis - Implied volatility remained stable, with the SSE 50 ETF at 12.69% as of May 13 [3] - Historical volatility for the SSE 50 ETF was 19.02%, while the CSI 300 Index was at 22.06% [3] - Overall, the A-share market showed a low volatility environment, with both call and put options increasing in shallow out-of-the-money positions, suggesting a short-term market consolidation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international factors significantly influence the gold market, leading to frequent fluctuations in its strength and weakness, making it difficult to predict trends [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant drop of $50 at the opening, while silver returned to the support level around 32 [3]. - The dollar index showed an upward trend, stabilizing above 100, which may lead to further increases, potentially reaching 120 [5]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,400, with a strong bullish trend as long as it remains above $3,260 [5][6]. - The trading strategy should focus on effective long and short trades within key support and resistance levels, particularly around $3,260 and $3,245 [6]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - International silver prices are expected to remain strong as long as they stay above $32, with a trading range between $32 and $33.5 [6]. - Domestic silver is also experiencing minor fluctuations, maintaining a high-level oscillation, with support at 8,200 and resistance at 8,350 [7]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a high of $61.5, and is expected to continue rising towards $64 and $66 [7]. - The domestic fuel market has also seen an increase, with prices rising to 2,675, and the strategy remains to hold long positions with targets at 2,700 and 2,800 [8].

■私募新观察 ◎记者 马嘉悦 相比于去年，今年的私募发行市场热闹了不少。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，截至4月30日，今年以 来新备案私募证券投资基金数量接近3500只，与去年同期相比增长近40%。与此同时，记者采访获悉， 随着私募业绩回暖，赚钱效应显现，多家量化私募发行显著回暖，部分新发产品募集规模上亿元。 私募发行市场回暖 私募排排网数据显示，截至4月30日，今年以来已有1372家私募证券投资基金管理人备案私募产品3491 只，较去年同期增长38.81%。 从月度备案情况来看，1至4月私募证券投资基金备案数量分别为732只、546只、1043只和1170只。其 中，除2月受春节假期因素影响备案数量环比略有下降外，其余月份均较前一个月平稳增长，尤其是4月 私募证券投资基金的新备案数量，创下近24个月新高。 "今年以来，A股和港股市场持续演绎结构性行情，私募整体业绩有所回暖，尤其是量化多头策略在市 场交易活跃中获得了较高的超额收益。在此背景下，资金入市信心明显得到提振，今年以来公司旗下多 头策略产品净申购规模远高于去年同期。"沪上某量化私募人士透露。 渠道人士也称，伴随债券资产收益率的不断下行，权益类产品赚钱效 ...

郑氏点银：黄金这轮还在延续修正呢，还是已经短期见底？ 第二，黄金小时线级别：今日亚盘又是恶心的洗盘扫荡走法，先开盘急拉20米，回踩确认顶底支撑3310，9点反弹收阳，两阳包阴准备上攻，结果10点掉头 向下，刺破上图趋势支撑点3280，触及3274再反拉刷日内高点，只要你是做趋势延续的，不管多空都被会洗干净；虽然欧盘抗跌横盘于亚盘高点3224之上， 但发现冲一下还是容易马上打压，延续性仍是一个问题，这就联想到上周五走法，美盘再来最后的一波诱空，后半夜企稳，下周逐步强势推高；从形态上 看，3274单脚可能还站稳不了，若能再来一脚，低位就稳定多了；刚好3290-3288是再次试探趋势支撑线的位置，可形成"头肩底"形态，底部整理就有充足 的动能去发力上攻； 因此，现在不打算去追涨，可能还有拉升空间，但延续性这两天太差，尽量等相对低位再尝试炒底，若今夜给不了，日线大阳形成 了，那么下周一再去强势跟随也来得及，因为强势趋势一旦打开，什么位置都可以跟随； 白银方面：通道反压点32.9，支撑32，继续震荡对待； 原油方面：从上图看，日内持续连阳，日线冲破中轨，趋势阻力线上破，回踩确认60.4尝试看企稳，也是小时线中轨， 等触 ...