注意，中东局势出现缓解，美国总统特朗普发文称，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。市场对石油供应中断的担忧情绪大幅缓 解，国际油价重创，回到之前的低点，国内油价预计涨幅稍有减少。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第5个工作日，当前预计油价上涨520元/吨，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅减少85元/吨，折合每升油价上涨0.39- 0.47元。仍远超油价上调红线，油价要涨 注意，油价大涨中 | 福建 | 7.14 | 7.63 | 9.13 | 6.82 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海南 | 8.29 | 8.8 | 9.95 | 6.91 | | 广东 | 7.19 | 7.79 | 9.79 | 6.83 | | 广西 | 7.24 | 7.82 | 9.06 | 6.88 | | 広開 | 7.32 | 7.86 | 8.54 | 6.9 | | 贵州 | 7.3 | 7.72 | 8.62 | 6.93 | | 四川 | 7.27 | 7.77 | 8.45 | 6.88 | | 重庆 | 7.24 | 7.65 | 9.24 | 6.89 | | श्रीमें स् ...

行业 沥青日报 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1： 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2509 | 3736 | 3781 | 3804 | 3719 | 0.8 | 31.75 | | BU2508 | 3698 | 3746 | 3763 | 3681 | 1.02 | 4.75 | 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbf ...

Supply and Demand - As of June 19, the overall operating rate of MEG is 70.33%, an increase of 4.08%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 70.16%, up by 1.73% [2] - As of June 23, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is approximately 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - Geopolitical factors have temporarily halted Iranian ethylene glycol facilities, which has supported a strong performance in ethylene glycol; however, Iranian inventory is still being shipped normally, and the actual arrival volume in July is expected to have little impact [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene glycol facilities are operating at full capacity, and two 700,000-ton facilities in Saudi Arabia are expected to restart soon, with local facility load increasing and planned shipping volume rising compared to the previous period [3] - In the short term, with the recovery of domestic facilities and weak demand expectations, supply and demand are unlikely to provide upward momentum for ethylene glycol, and with geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices significantly dropping, a price correction for ethylene glycol is anticipated; the short-term focus for EG09 is on the resistance level of 4,500 [3] Spot Market - On June 23, ethylene glycol prices opened high and then retreated, with market discussions remaining acceptable; overnight crude oil prices rose, leading to an early high opening for ethylene glycol, with spot transactions reaching around 4,640-4,650 yuan/ton [1] - Following news of Iranian facility restart intentions, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline; in the afternoon, the market saw narrow fluctuations with weak trading [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices also retreated from recent highs, with early discussions around 538-540 USD/ton, later falling to 531-533 USD/ton, and afternoon discussions around 533-535 USD/ton, with some trades executed at 531 USD/ton [1]

2025 年 06 月 24 日 甲醇：地缘缓解，偏弱运行 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,504 | 2,529 | -25 493868 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,512 | 2,538 | -26 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 2,496,954 | 2,003,086 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 993,459 | 884,704 | 108755 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,867 | 7,925 | -58 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in oil and gas stocks due to a sharp drop in international oil prices [1] - Affected companies include Tongyuan Petroleum, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Baomo Co., Taishan Petroleum, Beiken Energy, Zhun Oil, Zhongman Petroleum, and Shandong Molong, all of which experienced trading halts at their lower limits [1] - The international crude oil futures settlement prices saw a substantial decrease, with WTI crude oil futures for August contracts falling by 7.22% and Brent crude oil futures for August contracts dropping by 7.18% [1]

Group 1 - The recent ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, announced by Trump, led to a significant drop in Brent crude oil prices by 4.4% and WTI by 3.8% [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while the ceasefire is a positive development, it is unlikely to ignite a new bull market, with one expert describing it as a "gradual milestone" rather than a game changer [3][4] - The current global oil market is characterized by an oversupply, with OPEC+ recently announcing an increase in production and a decline in oil imports from major consumers like China and India [4][5] Group 2 - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could weaken the dollar, indirectly raising oil prices, but it may also signal a slowdown in economic growth, leading to lower demand expectations [5][6] - Historical data indicates that while oil prices typically rise by an average of 12% during conflicts, they tend to retract 60% of those gains within three months [5][6] - Long-term forecasts predict a decline in Brent crude oil prices, with Goldman Sachs estimating an average price of $63 per barrel in 2025 and $58 in 2026, indicating a clear downward trend [5][6] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggested include focusing on the valuation recovery of energy stocks, particularly major players like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which are currently at historical low P/E ratios [5][6] - Attention should also be given to the oil and gas services sector, as the increase in U.S. shale oil rig counts suggests a potential rebound in upstream capital expenditures [5][6] - Despite short-term oil price declines, the long-term transition to renewable energy remains a critical trend, with sectors like solar and energy storage still considered worthy of long-term investment [5][6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, with U.S. crude oil futures falling by 5.1% to $65.02 per barrel [1][4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had previously caused volatility in the oil market, but the announcement of the ceasefire has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions [4] - The current oil market fundamentals are driving price movements, with expectations of oversupply in the second half of the year and increasing pressure from rising inventories [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ countries, including Iran, are ramping up production, which contributes to the expectation of a more relaxed supply environment [4] - The Trump administration's support for a low-energy price strategy aligns with the recent military actions and has pressured energy producers to lower prices and increase domestic drilling [4] - The decline in oil prices may provide a window for alleviating global inflation, with potential implications for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant decline on June 23, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for August dropping by $5.33 to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 7.22%, and Brent crude oil futures for August falling by $5.53 to $71.48 per barrel, a decrease of 7.18% [1] - Concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern energy supplies were initially heightened following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which raised fears of increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that if transportation disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices could rise to $110 per barrel, with an average forecast of $95 per barrel by Q4 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Iranian government responded to U.S. actions by launching missile strikes on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, although the attack was intercepted without causing casualties [2] - Market sentiment shifted from tension to cautious observation following Iran's relatively restrained response, suggesting limited upward pressure on oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains open [2] - President Trump called for stability in oil prices and urged for immediate expansion of drilling, interpreted as a push for the U.S. energy sector [2] Group 3 - Reports indicated that Israel and Iran reached an agreement for a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire," leading to further declines in international oil prices during Asian trading hours on June 24 [3]

每经编辑｜何小桃 据央视新闻最新报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间6月23日18时在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。 特朗普发文时间为美国东部时间23日18时，特朗普称，双方停火将于大约6小时后开始，也就是美国东部时间6月24日零时，伊朗将启动首次12小时停火， 以色列将随后进行第二次12小时停火，24小时后，战争将正式宣布结束。 另外，据新华社报道，美国东部时间23日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期12 天的冲突即将结束。 以色列和伊朗暂未有相关的官方表态。 受此影响，国际油价大幅走低，美国WTI原油期货亚市盘初一度跌逾5%，截至发稿，跌幅收窄至3.63%，报66.02美元/桶。 伊朗"真实承诺-3"行动发言人发表视频声明表示，伊朗的果断行动向白宫及其盟友发出了明确的信号：伊朗在任何情况下都不会对侵犯其领土完整、主权 和国家安全的行为置之不理。 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处23日晚也发布声明称，此次导弹数量与美方袭击伊朗核设施时所使用的炸弹数量相同，被打击的美军基地远离卡塔尔的居 民区和城市基础设施。 当地时间6 ...

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil prices have dropped by 9%, while Brent crude oil has decreased by 8.5%, indicating a significant decline in the oil market [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil prices is linked to geopolitical developments, particularly Trump's comments regarding Iran and military actions [1] - Trump's statement expresses gratitude towards Iran for notifying the U.S. about attacks on military bases, suggesting a potential shift towards peace [1]