Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns over oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, leading to a significant increase in international oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - WTI crude oil opened with a surge of over 6%, reaching a peak of $76.65 per barrel before settling with a gain of 4.3% [1] - The market's focus is on the potential for further escalation of the conflict, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil is transported daily [1] Group 2: Recent Events - Israel's recent airstrike on Iran's South Pars gas field resulted in the shutdown of a production platform, marking a continuation of military actions following previous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military command systems [1] - The potential for Iran to attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant risk for oil prices, which could spike dramatically if such actions occur [1]

智通财经6月15日电，阿联酋对外贸易国务大臣称，第一季度，阿联酋的非石油出口达到创纪录的1773 亿迪拉姆，较2024年同期增长40.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to fears of supply disruptions [1][3][6] - On June 13, oil prices surged over 10% in a single day, with New York crude oil reaching a peak of $77.62 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $78.5, marking the largest intraday increase since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 [1][3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo suggest that the current spike in oil prices is driven more by panic rather than actual supply-demand changes, predicting that prices will likely fall back below $60 per barrel later this year and potentially drop to $56 or lower early next year [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns are particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil supply, accounting for approximately 20% to 25% of oil and one-third of liquefied natural gas production [4][6] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz has raised alarms, as the narrow waterway is easily controlled by Iran, and any disruption could lead to a significant change in global oil supply dynamics [6][8] - Shipping companies are already reacting to the heightened risks, with the largest publicly listed tanker company refusing to sign new contracts for vessels passing through the Strait, indicating a shift towards more cautious maritime operations in the region [6][8]

Core Insights - In March 2025, the petroleum coke production in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region reached 156,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.2% and an acceleration of 88.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the total petroleum coke production was 458,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% and an increase of 26.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Production Statistics - March 2025 petroleum coke production: 156,000 tons, accounting for 5.7% of the national production of 2,741,000 tons [1] - January to March 2025 cumulative petroleum coke production: 458,000 tons, also representing 5.7% of the national total of 8,063,000 tons [1]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 全球地缘不确定性上升，"石油危 机"情景预演 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250606-20250614) 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共20页 简单金融 成就梦想 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 大 类 资 产 配 置 告 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250606–20250614）。本周全球政治不稳定性持续上升。中美方面，人 民日报消息，中美双方进行了专业 ...

沙特能源大臣Abdulaziz bin Salman私下告诉他人，沙特不会重复2018年的错误——当时特朗普说服 OPEC+在打击德黑兰出口前增产，但随后美国总统却向许多伊朗石油进口商发放豁免。 当以色列对伊朗发动突然袭击威胁中东石油供应时，沙特阿拉伯主导的OPEC+近期增产决定瞬间成为 市场焦点。 以沙特为首的产油国集团今年令石油市场大跌眼镜：即使在原油价格下跌的情况下，仍加速恢复闲置产 能。这一反常操作立即引发投机者猜测——沙特是否在响应白宫要求，为即将到来的对伊冲突提前释放 产能？ 美国此前已与伊朗举行多轮核谈判，但特朗普总统同时警告称，如果外交失败将考虑军事选择，而以色 列则公开推动对伊朗实施打击。 "我毫不怀疑特朗普要求沙特增产石油，以应对他的三大难题：伊朗、俄罗斯和通胀，"前布什政府顾 问、现任Rapidan Energy Group负责人Bob McNally表示。"但认为这种'要求'是为了使攻击成为可能，这 种推测过于牵强。" 利雅得的算盘：市场份额比政治压力更重要 分析师和交易员指出，沙特放松减产有其独立于地缘政治事件的内在逻辑。 在近三年的供应限制推高价格后，减产措施的效果正在减弱。重新恢 ...

Group 1 - The report by Wood Mackenzie predicts that oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will increase by 300,000 barrels per day by 2025 and by an additional 250,000 barrels per day by 2026, reaching over 2 million barrels per day, a 40% increase compared to 2022 [1] - The decline in U.S. shale oil production is attributed to falling oil prices, leading land producers to cut drilling activity and costs to offset the increasing oil supply from OPEC and its allies [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a 0.4% decrease in total U.S. oil production by 2026, marking the first decline since 2021, bringing production down to 13.37 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The significance of the Gulf of Mexico has changed dramatically over the past two decades, shifting from being overshadowed by the shale oil boom to regaining importance as oil prices decline [2] - Chevron plans to increase oil production in the Gulf of Mexico by 50% by 2026, reaching 300,000 barrels per day [2] - Shell's Sparta project is expected to come online by 2028, with a production capacity of 90,000 barrels per day, while BP aims to launch several projects by 2030, increasing capacity by approximately 20% to over 400,000 barrels per day [2] - The recovery of the Gulf of Mexico is attributed to a shift towards smaller-scale, simpler structures in offshore extraction, which reduces costs and enhances efficiency during price fluctuations [2]

伊朗石油部警告媒体未经官方批准不得发布涉及伊朗石油设施的潜在袭击或事件的新闻、图片或视频。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has rejected Europe's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, which has diminished hopes for a production cut agreement among G7 leaders [1] - The EU and the UK are seeking to lower the price cap to further reduce Russia's oil revenue, which is seen as crucial funding for its war against Ukraine [1] - There are indications that the EU and the UK may explore lowering the price cap without U.S. involvement, as most Russian oil is transported near European waters [1] Group 2 - Following recent attacks by Israel on Iran, WTI crude oil prices surged over 13% in a single day, marking the largest daily increase since March 2022 [2] - The combination of policy disagreements and market volatility is creating a more unpredictable energy market environment for investors [5]

金融界2025年6月14日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，中国石油天然气集团有限公司;中国石油集团东 方地球物理勘探有限责任公司申请一项名为"三维层析反演连片并行计算实现方法及装置"的专利，公开 号CN120144234A，申请日期为2023年12月。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油天然气集团有限公司，成立于1990年，位于北京市，是一家以从事燃气生产 和供应业为主的企业。企业注册资本48690000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油天然气集团 有限公司共对外投资了112家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息1446条，专利信 息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可28个。 中国石油集团东方地球物理勘探有限责任公司，成立于2000年，位于保定市，是一家以从事专业技术服 务业为主的企业。企业注册资本1532478.7891万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油集团东方地 球物理勘探有限责任公司共对外投资了31家企业，参与招投标项目1974次，财产线索方面有商标信息 100条，专利信息3218条，此外企业还拥有行政许可241个。 专利摘要显示，本发明涉及石油勘探技术领域，提供了一种三维层析反演连片 ...