证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | | 27 | | 年 | 06 | 月 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 6.26 | | | | 一 年 最 / 最 | | 高 | | 低 | | | | | 内 | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 3,506.31 | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | 7.63 | | | | | | | | | | | 7.40/5.40 | | | | （元） | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic significance of expanding effective government investment in China through the "implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas," which supports the "new two-step" modernization agenda and combines supply-side structural reform with counter-cyclical regulation to stimulate domestic demand [1][4][37]. Group 1: Effective Investment and Economic Context - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on effective government investment, particularly during periods of economic downturn, to stimulate growth and enhance overall economic performance [1][8][21]. - The concept of "comprehensive performance" is introduced, which transcends traditional cost-benefit analysis by considering long-term benefits and positive externalities associated with government investments [4][12][38]. - The need for "appropriately ahead of schedule" investments is highlighted, suggesting that long-term infrastructure projects should be planned with foresight to maximize their impact [4][12][17]. Group 2: Investment Scenarios and Mechanisms - The article identifies various scenarios for effective government investment, including the construction of sponge cities, which are crucial for disaster prevention and urban resilience [2][26][27]. - It discusses the importance of innovative financing mechanisms, such as special bonds and public-private partnerships (PPP), to support these investments and ensure their sustainability [2][29][35]. - The necessity of a coordinated approach in government investment planning is emphasized, advocating for a unified strategy that aligns national and local investment efforts [25][39]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - The article acknowledges challenges in measuring the effectiveness of government investments, particularly in terms of direct economic returns versus broader social benefits [12][13][15]. - Recommendations include enhancing the management of public debt and optimizing investment strategies to ensure that government spending translates into tangible economic benefits [31][34][36]. - The importance of addressing the needs of the private sector and improving the investment climate for private enterprises is also discussed, highlighting the role of government in fostering a supportive environment for economic growth [21][22].

6月份综合PMI产出指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.3个百分点。该指数是PMI指标体系中反映当期全行业 （制造业和非制造业）产出变化情况的综合指数，由制造业生产指数与非制造业商务活动指数加权求和 而成，权数分别为制造业和非制造业占GDP的比重。其中，制造业生产指数为51%，较上月上升0.3个 百分点。 本报北京6月30日电 （记者欧阳洁）国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会30日发布数据 显示：6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体保持扩张。 在需求回升带动下，企业生产活动保持稳定扩张，生产指数为51%，较上月上升0.3个百分点。企业原 材料采购活动也相应有所扩张，采购量指数为50.2%，较上月上升2.6个百分点，在连续2个月运行在 50%以下后回到扩张区间。结合来看，6月份，制造业市场供需两端均有所扩张，经济运行基本面稳中 向好。 同时公布的6月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，继续保持在50%以上 的平稳扩张区间。新订单 ...

道琼斯指数6月30日（周一）收盘上涨275.50点，涨幅0.63%，报44094.77点； 标普500指数6月30日（周一）收盘上涨31.88点，涨幅0.52%，报6204.95点； 纳斯达克综合指数6月30日（周一）收盘上涨96.27点，涨幅0.47%，报20369.73点。 ...

Group 1 - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, indicating a recovery in both sectors [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, with production index at 51% and new orders index at 50.2% [1] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilization, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2] Group 2 - The construction industry saw a significant increase in business activity index to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising investment-related construction activities [2] - The recent stabilization in raw material purchasing prices and finished product sales prices indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, ending a three-month decline [2] - Despite a decline in business activity indices for sectors related to consumer travel, the market expectation index remains high at 56.0%, suggesting potential recovery in service-related industries as the summer consumption peak approaches [3]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 1.63 billion to 1.7 billion yuan, representing an increase of 12.57% to 17.40% compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit for the first half of 2024 was 1.448 billion yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 1.419 billion yuan [1] - The basic and diluted earnings per share for the first half of 2024 were both 0.27 yuan per share [1] Group 2 - The main reasons for the profit increase include continued growth in the company's core business revenue and sustained improvement in trade fulfillment services [1] - The economic indicators in Yiwu city show strong growth, with total import and export volume reaching 327.13 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [2] - The daily opening rate of the market remains above 97%, with an average daily foot traffic exceeding 230,000 people, indicating a stable and positive market operation [2] Group 3 - The first batch of 389 fashion jewelry industry shops has completed its recruitment work, with a strong demand reflected in the high number of applications and bids [3] - The bidding demand ratio for the first batch was 4.25:1, indicating a significant interest in the market [3] - The second batch of recruitment for baby and toddler products, as well as skincare and medical beauty products, has commenced, with over 3,200 registrations on the first day [3]

道琼斯指数6月30日（周一）开盘上涨204.69点，涨幅0.47%，报44023.96点； 标普500指数6月30日（周一）开盘上涨22.37点，涨幅0.36%，报6195.50点； 纳斯达克综合指数6月30日（周一）开盘上涨102.86点，涨幅0.51%，报20376.31点。 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index opened up by 20.29 points, an increase of 0.33%, reaching 6193.36 points [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up by 201.39 points, an increase of 0.46%, reaching 44020.66 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index opened up by 86.69 points, an increase of 0.43%, reaching 20360.15 points [1]

Group 1 - The report on the export risk index for small and micro foreign trade enterprises in China indicates an overall increase in export risks due to structural adjustments in the global economy and rising payment risks from overseas companies [2][3] - The index was developed using a comprehensive data set that includes macroeconomic, industry-specific data, trade policy expert surveys, and dynamic risk monitoring data, creating a multi-layered indicator system [3] - The report highlights that the overall credit risk faced by small and micro foreign trade enterprises has been on a continuous upward trend over the past three years, primarily due to the complexities of the international trade environment [3] Group 2 - The 26th Qinghai Green Development Investment and Trade Fair achieved a total signed investment amount of 86.94 billion yuan, with 82 projects signed across various sectors including new energy and infrastructure [5] - The fair attracted over 680 domestic and foreign enterprises, showcasing more than 10,000 unique products, and achieved nearly 70 million yuan in online and offline transaction amounts [5] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Central Decision-Making and Coordination Institutions," emphasizing the importance of centralized leadership and effective coordination for major tasks [7] - The meeting stressed the need for thorough research and practical policy measures to enhance decision-making efficiency and effectiveness [7] Group 4 - The implementation plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance aims to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years, focusing on optimizing service systems and enhancing credit support for small and micro enterprises [9] - Key tasks include improving the inclusive financial service system, enhancing the credit system, and strengthening the inclusive insurance system [9] Group 5 - The "Industrial Development Plan for the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone (2025-2029)" aims for a high degree of economic coordination with Macao by 2029, with a focus on cross-border flow of resources and the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework [11] - The plan targets a 65% contribution of "new four" industries to the regional GDP and aims to facilitate the diversified development of Macao's economy [11] Group 6 - Anhui Province is enhancing digital literacy and skills among its population, with over 167,000 5G base stations established and all cities meeting "gigabit city" standards [13] - The province is also focusing on building a lifelong digital learning system and improving public awareness of cybersecurity [13] Group 7 - Sichuan Province's decision to support the listing of qualified cultural and tourism enterprises aims to strengthen the cultural tourism sector and foster the growth of leading enterprises in various related fields [15] - The initiative includes establishing a service system for the entire lifecycle of cultural tourism enterprises and protecting their legal rights [15] Group 8 - The West Artificial Island of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel will be developed into a tourism project, integrating science education, themed sightseeing, and experiential learning [17] - This project aims to transform the channel from a transportation hub into a comprehensive landmark within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [17]

三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9%和50.4%， 均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关行业产需两 端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比上月上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.0%和50.2%，比上月上升0.3和0.4个百分 点，制造业生产活动加快，市场需求有所改善。从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、专用设备等行业生产 指数和新订单指数连续两个月位于扩张区间，相关行业产需释放较快；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼 及压延加工等行业两个指数继续低于临界点，市场活跃度仍显不足。在产需回升的带动下，企业采购意 愿增强，采购量指数为50.2%，比上月上升2.6个百分点。 价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比上月上升1.5个百 分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。从行业看，受近期国际原油价格上涨等因素影响，石油煤炭 及其他燃料加工业主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数明显回升；此外，由于铁矿石等原材料价格 继 ...